InterGlobe Aviation
BSE SENSEX
23,962
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,277
INDIGO IN
360.4
431.5 / 6.3
1,396/848
18/-/-
-
13.9
22 January 2016
3QFY16 Results Update | Sector: Aviation
CMP: INR1199
TP: INR1474(+23%)
Buy
InterGlobe Aviation reported in-line 3QFY16 EBITDAR at INR 16.7b despite higher net
sales at INR43b (est INR41.9b) due to significantly higher employee expenses at INR4.7b
(est INR3.8b). PAT was below estimate at INR6.6b (est. INR7.2b) led by higher rentals at
INR6.7b (est INR6.2b). IndiGo’s 9MFY16 results were significantly lower than our
estimates primarily due to a seasonally weaker second quarter and higher employee
costs. We cut our earnings for FY16 by 25% to factor in actual 9MFY16 results and for
FY17/FY18 by ~18% to factor in A320neo delays, higher employee costs and rentals.
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2015 2016E 2017E
Net Sales
139.3 162.4 196.9
EBITDAR
38.2
56.3
72.7
PAT
13.0
19.5
25.7
EPS (INR)
36.0
54.1
71.4
Gr. (%)
173.1
50.3
32.1
BV/Sh (INR)
11.8
59.2
87.9
RoE (%)
305.6 152.3
97.1
RoCE (%)
45.5
51.9
58.2
P/E (x)
33.2
22.1
16.7
P/BV (x)
100.9
20.2
13.6
3QFY16 EBITDAR largely in-line:
3QFY16 revenue at INR43b (+11% YoY) was
driven by 25% RPK growth negated by 11% decline in yields. 3QFY16 While
EBITDAR stood at INR16.7b, EBITDAR margin stood at 38.8% (vs 33.1% in
3QFY15) led by fuels cost at 27% (vs 38% in 3QFY15), partly compensated by
higher non-fuel cost at 34% (vs 29% in 3QFY15) on account of higher employee
costs. Employee expenses were higher led by (a)excess pilots/cabin crew which
were recruited in anticipation of A320neo and (b) due to costs related to
allocation of ESOP. While we believe higher rentals were due to higher share of
aircraft on short-term leases.
9MFY16 significantly below estimates:
Indigo’s reported 9MFY16 EBITDAR
stood at INR41.1b (est INR45.6b) and PAT at INR14.1b (est INR18.4b) impacted
by higher employee costs and lower yields (at INR4.3 vs INR4.7 in 1Q/3QFY16).
Aircraft delivery schedule:
Indigo has compensated A320neo delays by short-
term leases, but nevertheless will impact its fleet guidance given during IPO. As
Airbus has delivered its first A320neo airfcraft to Lufthansa on Jan 20, 2016 and
Indigo being one of the launch customer, we do not expect significant delay
and only marginally lower our fleet assumptions.
Cutting estimates:
We cut our earnings for FY16 by 25% to factor in actual
9MFY16 results and for FY17/FY18 by ~18% to factor in A320neo delays and
higher employee costs. We believe that any positive news on aircraft deliveries
will be a positive trigger for the stock. We roll forward our fair value to FY18
basis and arrive at a TP of INR1,474 (P/E @17x). The stock trades at 13.8x our
FY18 EPS of INR86.7 and at 8x adj. FY18 EV/EBITDAR.
Maintain Buy.
Harshad Borawake
(HarshadBorawake@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5432
Rajat Agarwal
(Rajat.Agarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5558
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.