Container Corporation
BSE SENSEX
24,492
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, (INR m)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,438
CCRI IN
195.0
235.6 / 3.5
1,944/1,125
-2/-15/2
402
38.2
27 January 2016
Q3FY16 Results Update | Sector: Logistics
CMP: INR1,209
TP: INR1,605 (+33%)
Buy
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2015 2016E 2017E
Net Sales
61.5
57.5
62.9
EBITDA
14.0
11.9
14.4
PAT
10.5
8.7
10.6
EPS (INR)
54.1
44.8
54.2
Gr. (%)
11.7 -17.1
20.8
BV/Sh (INR)
385.5 416.8 454.6
RoE (%)
14.7
11.2
12.4
RoCE (%)
18.2
14.8
16.3
P/E (x)
22.4
27.0
22.3
P/BV (x)
3.1
2.9
2.7
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
EBITDA and PAT in line; domestic business up QoQ; EXIM disappoints
Container Corporation (CCRI IN) reported in-line EBITDA at INR2.8b (est. of
INR2.9b; -24% YoY, -11% QoQ). Revenue was also largely in line at INR14.0b
(est. of INR13.7b; -3% YoY, -6% QoQ).
Adjusted PAT was in line at INR2.1b (est. of INR2.0b; -32% YoY, -11% QoQ). Tax
rate was 24.7% (est. of 26.4%) while other income was higher-than-estimate at
INR813m (est. of INR780m; -5% YoY, -5% QoQ).
Employee expenses increased 7% QoQ to INR396m.
Overall volumes stood at 0.71m teu (-9% YoY and -6% QoQ), led by EXIM at
0.6m teu (-10% YoY, -8% QoQ) and domestic at 0.11m teu (-4% YoY, +6% QoQ).
The domestic increase was primarily due to startup of Pantnagar operations.
Realization (in INR/teu) in EXIM stood at 18,897 (+6% YoY, -1% QoQ) and
domestic at 24,515 (+7% YoY, -4% QoQ). YoY increase in realization was led by
higher haulage rates.
EBIT (in INR/teu) in EXIM stood at 3,498 (-20% YoY, -4% QoQ) and domestic at
481 (-60% YoY, -2% QoQ).
Valuation and view
While DFC (Dedicated Freight Corridor) completion (expected in 2018/2019)
will be a significant efficiency driver for CCRI, its investments in long gestation
MMLP’s will impact near-term ratios.
We cut our FY17 earnings by 3% on the back of lower volume growth
assumption of ~7% in EXIM and domestic in FY17.
We value CCRI on DFC-based valuation (WACC: 12.6%, TGR: 5%) to arrive at a
fair value of INR1,605/sh (v/s INR1,636/sh earlier). The stock trades at a rich
valuation of 22.3x FY17E EPS of INR54.2, with continued near-term volume
growth concerns. Maintain
Buy.
Harshad Borawake
(HarshadBorawake@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5432
Rajat Agarwal
(Rajat.Agarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5558
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.