2 February 2016
2QFY16 Results Update | Sector: Cement
Shree Cement
Neutral
BSE SENSEX
24,539
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,456
SRCM IN
14-quarter high growth amidst; Cost savings negates realization hit
34.8
14-quarter high growth amidst pricing dip:
SRCM’s 2QFY16 EBITDA stood in
361.4 / 5.3
line at INR4.2b, +40% YoY (est INR4.1b) led by strong volume growth and
13345 / 9350
duality of softening realization getting offset by cost savings. On the back east
-2/2/11
240
expansion, SRCM posted 23% YoY (+12% QoQ) growth in volume at 4.7mt (est
35.2
4.5mt), albeit dismal realizations (down 4% QoQ v/s est -2.5%) highlights
CMP:INR10,375 TP: INR11,634(12%)
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E June
2015
2016E 2017E
Net Sales
64.4
72.5
85.0
EBITDA
13.3
17.0
21.7
PAT
4.6
6.0
10.8
EPS (INR)
133.2
171.8
309.8
Gr. (%)
-40.0
29.0
80.3
BV/Sh (INR) 1,514.6 1,614.5 1,883.6
RoE (%)
9.3
11.0
17.7
RoCE (%)
9.4
11.6
18.2
P/E (x)
77.9
60.4
33.5
P/BV (x)
6.8
6.4
5.5
EV/EBITDA(x) 26.3
20.3
15.4
EV/Ton(USD) 211
193
186
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
competitive intensity prevailing. Cement revenue was at INR16.5b, +22% YoY
(4% beat), while merchant power revenue stood at INR1.8b (est INR2b), led by
lower realizations of INR3.37/unit (-8% QoQ) and stable volume.
Cost savings negates realization hit, profitability in line:
EBITDA margin stood
at 23.2% (+0.7pp QoQ, +3.5pp YoY) despite dip in realizations. Cost/ton was
lower 4-5% QoQ/YoY led by (a) savings in energy (sharp decline in pet coke
price), (b) freight (lower lead distance, down -10% YoY), and (c) positive
operating leverage. Cement EBITDA stood at INR796 (flat QoQ, +11% YoY).
Power EBITDA stood below est with EBITDA/unit of INR0.93 (v/s INR1.1 QoQ)
Marginal cut in estimates:
Higher depreciation (UP grinding commission) and
tax (no MAT credit) led PAT at INR1.03b (est INR1.1b). We cut FY16 (9M)
EBITDA by 1-3% after factoring in lower pricing trends, higher volume (13% v/s
11% earlier in FY16) and lower energy and freight cost. It translates into
FY16/17E cement EBITDA/ton of INR808/INR941 (INR744 in FY15).
Valuation premium came off, maintain neutral:
The stock trades at
15.4x/10.9x EV/EBITDA on FY17/18E and EV of US$169/ton FY17E (adjusting
for Merchant Power assets), which is 5- 10% premium to UTCEM at various
valuation parameters. The premium valuation has contracted post recent
underperformance. While we consider SRCM as one of resilience bet to play
cement up cycle, we continue to maintain our neutral stance still we get
visibility on sectoral growth sustenance. We value SRCM at SOTP based TP of
INR11,600/share (EV at USD200/ton and 12.5x FY18E EV/EBITDA), 12% upside.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Sandipan Pal
(Sandipan.Pal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Aashumi Mehta
(aashumi.mehta@motilaloswal.com);