Gateway Distriparks
BSE SENSEX
24,223
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,362
GDPL IN
108.7
29.7 / 0.4
454 / 266
-8/-9/-12
98
67.1
3 February 2016
Q3FY16 Results Update | Sector: Logistics
CMP: INR273
TP: INR453(+66%)
Buy
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2015 2016E 2017E
Net Sales
11.1
10.9
13.3
EBITDA
3.3
2.7
3.3
PAT
1.9
1.3
1.7
EPS (INR)
17.3
12.1
15.7
Gr. (%)
38.1 -29.7
29.4
BV/Sh (INR)
112.1 118.1 126.6
RoE (%)
16.0
10.5
12.8
RoCE (%)
17.6
14.1
16.7
P/E (x)
15.8
22.5
17.4
P/BV (x)
2.4
2.3
2.2
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
EBITDA below est., PAT in-line led by lower tax; macro headwinds to keep near-term
volumes subdued
GDPL’s reported EBITDA at INR619m was below our est. of INR657m (-28% YoY, -4% QoQ)
driven largely due to lower than expected volumes and profitability of rail business.
Reported PAT stood at INR309m (est. INR314m; -43% YoY, +1% QoQ) led by lower than
expected tax rate at 30% (est. 33%).
Rail volumes up 10% QoQ; but profitability impacted by EXIM imbalance
Rail division reported EBITDA at INR382m (est. INR413m; -22% YoY, +4% QoQ),
implying a 61% contribution to overall EBITDA.
Rail container volumes at 51,140 TEU (est. 52,710; -20% YoY, +10% QoQ) were
sequentially up sans flood related disruptions in Gujarat.
Rail realizations stood at INR37,034/TEU (+29% YoY, -3% QoQ). EBITDA/TEU came in at
INR7,464 (est. 7,840; -2% YoY, -5% QoQ), declining due to waiving off of terminal
charges at Ludhiana and increased EXIM imbalance leading to higher empties.
Completion of Viramgam terminal (in Gujarat) will increase double stacking and result
in 5-7% savings in rail haulage charges, well ahead of DFC completion.
GDPL is well placed to benefit from economic recovery as its current ICD capacity can
handle 4x volume increase without significant capex. We model 15% EBITDA CAGR
through FY18.
CFS division impacted by Chennai floods and weak macro environment
Consolidated CFS EBITDA stood at INR246m (est. INR244m; -33% YoY, -15% QoQ),
implying a 39% contribution to overall.
Consolidated volumes stood at 86.6K (est. 84.2K; -10% YoY, -9% QoQ).
Realizations stood at INR9,030/TEU (est. 7,588; -2% YoY, +5% QoQ), while EBITDA/TEU
stood at INR2,843 (-25% YoY, -6% QoQ).
The Chandra CFS in Chennai has recommenced operations in Jan 2016.
Valuation and view
Our FY15-18 volume CAGR assumptions in rail and CFS stands at 6%/10%. We value
Gateway Distriparks on SOTP-based fair value of INR453/sh, which includes INR425/sh
for core business on DCF basis (WACC: 12.2%, TGR: 4%) and INR28/sh for Snowman,
post 25% discount.
On FY17E, the stock trades at 17.4x FY17E EPS and at 23.1x FY17E (adjusted for Rail JV
interest, assumed 49%). On FY18E, the stock trades at 11.4x FY18E EPS and at 15.8x
FY18E adj. EPS; it has a dividend yield of ~3%. Maintain
Buy.
Harshad Borawake
(HarshadBorawake@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5432
Rajat Agarwal
(Rajat.Agarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5558
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.