Torrent Pharmaceuticals
BSE SENSEX
24,338
Bl oomberg
Equi ty Sha res (m)
M.Ca p.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Ra nge (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel . Per (%)
Avg Va l , (INR m)
Free fl oa t (%)
S&P CNX
7,404
TRP IN
169.2
228.4 / 3.4
1,720/1,033
-2/5/36
230
28.8
4 February 2016
Q3FY16 Results Update | Sector: Healthcare
CMP: INR1,350
TP: INR1,800(+33%)
Buy
Abilify continues to surprise positively; outlook remains strong
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2015 2016E 2017E
Net Sa les
46.5
66.2
62.3
EBITDA
10.2
26.8
16.8
PAT
5.7
10.9
12.1
EPS (INR)
33.4
64.2
71.6
Gr. (%)
4.9
92.4
11.5
BV/Sh (INR)
147.2 229.2 275.7
RoE (%)
25.7
34.1
28.4
RoCE (%)
27.7
50.2
28.7
P/E (x)
40.4
21.0
18.8
P/BV (x)
9.2
5.9
4.9
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Torrent reported sales of INR15.4b (up 32% YoY) with EBITDA of INR6.1b (vs
our est of INR5.1b) and PAT of INR4.8b, up 189% YoY. Strong profitability
growth and superior margins of ~40% (vs 21% in 3Q FY15) was primarily driven
by higher contribution from Abilify and cost control initiatives taken in India.
US continue to shine; India to bounce back from 4Q:
The US business for TRP
grew by 226% YoY to INR5.6b, led by Abilify sales and ramp-up of recent
launches including Esemoprazole and Detrol. India biz grew at ~7%YoY to INR
4.5b, mainly on account of stoppage of promotional activities (Bonus sales etc.)
and rationalization of sales force (down by ~300 in 3Q and ~600 YTD). TRP
management expects growth in India to bounce back from 4Q onwards.
Though constant currency growth in Brazil remained strong at ~24% YoY in 3Q,
revenues declined in LATAM market by 24% YoY due to currency volatility.
Strong launch pipeline (8-10 ANDA launches in US in FY17E), ramp-up of recent
key launches including Nexium and Detrol and recovery in domestic market will
help offset impact of lower contribution from Abilify over next two years.
Change in business mix leading to improvement in base business margins:
Strong EBITDA margin improvement (40% vs 21% in 3Q FY15) is primarily
driven by higher than expected Abilify sales in US (est USD45m in 3Q). Apart
from Abilify, base business margins have also improved considerably on the
back of cut back on discounts and sales force rationalization in domestic
markets (productivity improved by >30% YoY). We expect EBITDA margins to
expand 557bp over FY15-18E, led by (a) high-impact US launches, (b) higher
synergies from Elder brand acquisition, (c) ramp-up in LatAm and EU markets
and (d) improved MR productivity in India.
Maintain Outperform:
We remain positive on TRP’s re-rating potential due to
(a) niche portfolio in US (c) improvement in base business margins, (c) healthy
return ratios (from 27.7% ROCE in FY15 to 33.8% in FY18E), and (d) substantial
reduction in debt due to INR48b free cash flows over FY16-18E. Reiterate
Buy
with a target price of INR 1,800 (20x FY18E EPS—in line with the sector).
FY16E
2Q
3Q
4QE
16,910 15,390 14,469
38.9
31.8
25.4
7,140 6,130 4,418
42.2
39.8
30.5
610
610
613
480
420
482
740
510
790
6,790 5,610 4,114
-530
0
0
7,320 5,610 4,114
1,640
780
653
24.2
13.9
15.9
5,680 4,830 3,461
186.9 189.2 166.2
33.6
31.4
23.9
FY15
46,530
11.2
10,202
21.9
1,907
1,752
2,856
9,398
0
9,398
1,888
20.1
7,510
49.5
16.1
FY16E
66,223
42.3
26,763
40.4
2,423
1,962
2,710
25,089
0
25,089
7,173
28.6
17,916
138.6
27.1
Est.
3QE
15,895
36.1
5,091
32.0
610
450
650
4,681
0
4,681
1,170
25.0
3,511
110.2
22.1
Var.
vs Est
-3.2%
20.4%
Quarterly Performance (Consolidated) (INR Million)
Y/E March
1Q
Net Revenues
11,140
YoY Cha nge (%)
14.6
EBITDA
3,450
Ma rgi ns (%)
31.0
Depreci a ti on
210
Interes t
240
Other Income
490
PBT before EO Expen 3,490
Extra -Ord Expens e
0
PBT after EO Expens 3,490
Ta x
930
Ra te (%)
26.6
Reported PAT
2,560
YoY Cha nge (%)
71.8
Ma rgi ns (%)
23.0
FY15
2Q
3Q
4Q
12,170 11,680 11,540
25.2
15.1
-5.8
2,730 2,400 1,620
22.4
20.5
14.0
560
540
600
540
500
470
720
650 1,000
2,350 2,010 1,550
0
0
0
2,350 2,010 1,550
370
340
250
15.7
16.9
16.1
1,980 1,670 1,300
75.2
26.1
20.2
16.3
14.3
11.3
1Q
19,470
74.8
9,090
46.7
590
580
670
8,590
0
8,590
4,100
47.7
4,490
75.4
23.1
19.8%
37.6%
Kumar Saurabh
(Kumar.Saurabh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5584
Amey Chalke
(amey.chalke@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 39825423
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.