5 February 2016
Q3FY16 Results Update | Sector: Technology
Mphasis
Neutral
BSE SENSEX
24,617
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, (INR m)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,489
MPHL IN
210.2
92.4 / 1.4
534/335
-7/16/39
97
39.5
CMP: INR439
TP: INR520(+18%)
The leaking bucket continues to hurt
Delivering in the focus areas, but Digital Risk to languish:
MPHL reported
revenue decline of 3.4% QoQ to USD229m. Direct International segment grew
2.5% QoQ CC, continuing the momentum in its focus area. LTM deal TCV of
USD309m lends visibility of above-industry growth in 2/3rd of the business.
Revenue in Digital Risk however was flat at ~USD40m. This is expected to head
to its foundational size of ~USD30m run-rate over the next two quarters
Margins in-line with estimate:
EBIT margin declined by 70bp QoQ to 13.2%, in
line with our estimate of 13.3%. The impact of annual salary hike, furloughs
and Chennai was countered by growth in the Direct international business and
better revenue mix (with the sale of domestic BPO business). The management
maintained its guided EBIT margin range of 13-15% for FY17.
Improvement in overall revenue mix:
HP channel declined by 11% QoQ and
now constitutes to 24% of total revenue (35% in the previous year). The
revenue decline was also led by the selling of MPHL’s domestic BPO business.
With increasing share of Direct International revenue, marked improvement
can be expected in the company’s revenue mix and margin profile.
Valuation and view:
We expect revenue CAGR of 6.6% and EPS CAGR of 10.6%
over FY16-18E. Our estimates have been revised downwards by 5.5/6.6% for
FY17/18E given the accelerating decline in HP and shrinkage anticipated in
Digital Risk. While valuations at 11.4x/10.4x FY17E/18E are at a steep discount
to peers (particularly after factoring the cash balance), overall revenue growth
improvement is imperative to bridging the same. We maintain our target price
to INR520 discounting forward operating PAT by 11x added to net cash on
book of INR140/share (compared to INR112 at present).
Neutral.
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2015 2016E 2017E
Net Sales
57.9
60.9
64.4
EBITDA
8.7
9.0
10.2
PAT
6.8
7.3
8.1
EPS (INR)
32.3
34.6
38.5
Gr. (%)
-8.6
7.3
11.4
BV/Sh (INR)
260.8 277.1 290.4
RoE (%)
12.8
12.9
13.6
RoCE (%)
13.1
13.3
14.6
P/E (x)
13.6
12.7
11.4
P/BV (x)
1.7
1.6
1.5
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
5-7%
Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5424
Sagar Lele
(Sagar.Lele@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5585
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.