Ipca Laboratories
BSE SENSEX
24,287
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, (INR m)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,387
IPCA IN
126.2
81.7 / 1.2
888/560
-2/-2/20
202
54.1
8 February 2016
Q3FY16 Results Update | Sector: Healthcare
CMP: INR647
TP: INR680 (+5%)
Neutral
Significant miss, US FDA resolution remains a key
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2015 2016E 2017E
Net Sales
31.4
29.2
35.4
EBITDA
5.3
3.7
6.5
PAT
2.5
1.4
3.3
EPS (INR)
19.8
10.9
26.0
Gr. (%)
-47.7 -44.9 137.7
BV/Sh (INR)
175.0 181.8 203.9
RoE (%)
12.0
6.1
13.5
RoCE (%)
14.2
6.9
13.7
P/E (x)
32.7
59.2
24.9
P/BV (x)
3.7
3.6
3.2
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
-12-14%
IPCA’s 3Q PAT at INR232m (54%YoY decline) was significantly below expectations
due to sharp revenue disappointment (@INR6.8b, 13% miss) and inventory write of
INR240m. EBITDA also declined 26%YoY (22% miss), driven by negative operating
leverage and inventory write offs in 3Q.
Revenue recovery remained sluggish:
US business sales stood at INR220m led
by resumption of HCQ supplies in 3Q. The company has guided for steady ramp up
in the US sales going ahead. However, absence of Global fund contracts affected
institutional business as it declined 71%YoY to INR240m. Even though global fund
tenders sales are expected to pick up from next quarter, there has been significant
price erosion (~60%) in these contracts; as a result, ramp up would be much slower
than earlier estimates. India formulation business, affected by restructuring of
various marketing divisions and lower malaria sales; it grew 11%YoY to INR3.1b.
Branded promotional business declined 19%YoY to INR600m, driven by steep
currency depreciation in key markets.
Inventory write off affects profitability:
3Q EBITDA margins at 13% (down
340bp YoY) was a significant miss due to (a) lower revenues (hurt operating
leverage) and (b) inventory write-off worth INR240m during this quarter. Adjusted
for write offs, EBITDA margins stood at ~16% in 3Q.
Balanced risk-reward, earnings turnaround largely factored:
Post 3Q miss,
we cut our FY17/18E EPS est. by 14/12% respectively mainly on delay in US FDA
resolution and slower ramp up in Institutional business. At CMP, stock trades at
25x/16x FY17E/18E EPS, at a discount to 3 year average P/E. We believe that an
earnings rebound (26% EPS CAGR) is largely factored in. However, early resolution
of the USFDA-banned facilities could provide further trigger to our estimates.
Retain
Neutral
on IPCA with target price of INR680 (17x FY18E, 20% discount to
mid-cap peers).
Key risks:
Delay in resolving regulatory issues and slower market
share gains in US (on exempted products).
Kumar Saurabh
(Kumar.Saurabh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5584
Amey Chalke
(amey.chalke@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 39825423
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.