11 February 2016
Q3FY16 Results Update | Sector: Consumer
Page Industries
Buy
BSE SENSEX
22,952
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, (INR m)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
6,976
PAG IN
11.2
121.8 / 1.8
16,995/9,871
-11/-7/13
181
49
CMP: INR10,878
TP: INR14,000(+29%)
In-line performance; 10% volume growth in a soft market environment
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016E 2017E 2018E
17.9 22.3 28.0
Net Sales
3.8
4.7
6.1
EBITDA
2.4
3.0
3.9
PAT
212.6 265.8 349.1
EPS (INR)
21.0 25.0 31.3
Gr. (%)
453.1 586.0 760.5
BV/Sh (INR)
46.9 45.4 45.9
RoE (%)
41.5 42.5 45.1
RoCE (%)
51.2 40.9 31.2
P/E (x)
32.0 26.0 20.1
EV/EBITDA (x)
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
3%
Page Industries 3QFY16
net sales grew 14.9% YoY to INR4.4b (est. INR4.4b)
with 10.6% volume growth. EBITDA grew 14.9% YoY to INR894m and Adj. PAT
grew 26.3% YoY to INR565m (est. INR567m) after adjusting for differential
bonus liability of INR65.1m for 1HFY16. As per management, market
environment continues to be soft with broad based slowdown across regions.
3QFY16 volumes grew 10.6% YoY
(9MFY16 volumes up 10.5%) with pricing
component being 3.9% (4.8% for 9MFY16). Men’s Innerwear, women’s
innerwear and leisure wear segment posted 13.6%, 26.5% and 11.3% growth
respectively with volume growth of 10.1%, 19.9% and 3.9% respectively.
Leisure wear segment volumes were impacted due to withdrawal of
consumer/trade offers.
Gross margin expanded 80bps YoY
to 55.8% (est. 56.1%). However higher
employee costs (up 20% YoY due to differential bonus liability of INR22.3m in
3QFY16) and higher other expenses (up 10bps YoY) resulted in flattish EBITDA
margin YoY to 20.3% (est. 21.3%). Lower tax rate (down 590bps YoY) due to
certain exemptions resulted in Adj. PAT growth of 29.9% YoY to INR565m (est.
INR567m).
Management interaction takeaways:
i) Leisure wear segment volumes have
stabilized and the segment is now posting double digit growth, ii) Generally
PAGE takes price hikes in January, but it is awaiting clarity on GST (it could
initiate ~8% price hike post budget), iii) Tax rate for FY16 should trend at
9MFY16 levels.
Valuation and view:
Page 3QFY16 results were largely in-line with our
estimates; however we have tapered our estimates (2-3%) for FY17E/FY18E to
factor in moderation in sales (demand revival yet to see pick up) and lower tax
rates. We believe, Page offers a compelling, capital-efficient long-term lifestyle
play on the premiumizing innerwear category. A widening product and brand
portfolio, coupled with distribution expansion will aid share expansion and
drive multiple years of growth, in our view. Maintain
Buy
with a revised target
price of INR14,000 (40x FY18E EPS – three year average P/E).
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Gautam Duggad
(Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5404
Manish Poddar
(manish.poddar@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3027 8029/
Vishal Punmiya
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com)