Alkem Laboratories
BSE SENSEX
22,986
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
6,981
ALKEM IN
119.6
157.7 / 2.3
1,589/1,251
-
2,252
-
12 February 2016
Q3FY16 Results Update | Sector: Healthcare
CMP: INR1,319 TP: INR1,751(+33%)
Strong results; Margins continue to surprise positively
Buy
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
FY16E FY17E FY18E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
50.6
60.1
71.7
EBITDA
9.0
10.4
13.1
NP
7.4
8.4
10.5
EPS (INR)
62.3
70.7
87.5
Gr. (%)
61.0
13.5
23.9
BV/Sh (INR)
305.8 362.3 430.1
RoE (%)
22.4
21.2
22.1
RoCE (%)
20.4
20.3
22.1
P/E (x)
21.2
18.7
15.1
P/BV (x)
4.3
3.6
3.1
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Alkem reported strong 3QFY16 results with net sales at INR 12.7b, up 29% YoY
driven by strong domestic performance (up 28% YoY) and impressive ramp-up in
US sales (up 19% YoY). EBITDA came in at INR2.3b, up 38% YoY (16% above our
est) with EBITDA margin of 18.5% (up 114bps YoY). Sustenance of high margins
(QoQ) is primarily attributed to robust sales in US and India and lower R&D at
(3.4% of sales- ~100bps below est). PAT came in at INR 1.9b, up 17% YoY (16%
above our est) despite lower other income and higher tax rate. We believe market
leadership position in key acute therapies will help provide sustainability whereas
expanding presence in high growth areas of chronic segment will help drive
growth.
Domestic business continues to outperform industry growth:
Domestic business
growth for the company stood at ~28.4% YoY. This strong growth is primarily
driven by acquisition of a) Indchemie and Catchet, b) impressive growth in
established therapies, c) market share gain in emerging therapies. Excluding the
acquisitions, base business grew at steady pace of >13% YoY. According to AIOCD,
secondary sales growth in 3Q for Alkem stood at 15.7% YoY (vs industry growth of
14.3% YoY) providing visibility of strong growth ahead. The new price control list
will have a one-time impact of <1% on domestic sales growth for Alkem. We have
already built this in our estimates.
Strong momentum in US sales to continue:
US sales run rate has improved to
USD40m in 3Q (vs run rate of USD35m in 1H FY16 and ~USD26m in FY15) on the
back of key products including Mycophenolate Mofetil. We expect US business
sales to more than double by FY18E to ~USD225m vs ~USD106m in FY15. This will
be driven by strong ANDA pipeline of ~45 pending ANDAs.
Valuations attractive; sticky profit provides comfort:
Our TP of INR1,750 for Alkem
is based on 20x FY18E PER (~10-15% discount to peers). We argue for a multiple re-
rating going forward given the superior earnings growth profile (>30% EPS CAGR
between FY15-18E), improving return ratios (ROICs to improve to ~22% by FY18E vs
16% in FY15) and net cash balance sheet. We have increased our FY16E EPS est by
~4% on the back of strong 3Q performance and margin sustenance.
(INR Million)
FY15
3Q
9,878
1,711
17.3
212
181
1,679
0
1,679
64
3.8
1,615
0
1,615
4Q
9,119
1,322
14.5
181
339
1,480
0
1,480
181
12.2
1,299
0
1,299
FY16
1Q
2Q
3Q
12,141 13,560 12,747
29.0
2,033
2,545
2,354
16.7
18.8
18.5
224
277
244
162
334
161
1,971
2,602
2,270
0
0
1,971
2,602
2,270
122
91
345
6.2
3.5
15.2
1,849
2,511
1,925
28
45
35
1,821
2,466
1,889
17.0
FY15
4QE
12,142
1,997
16.4
279
138
1,856
0
1,856
576
31.0
1,280
37
1,243
37,887
5,445
14.4
703
999
5,741
574
5,167
542
9.4
4,625
0
4,625
FY16E
50,591
33.5
8,955
17.7
1,025
794
8,724
0
8,724
1,134
13.0
7,590
145
7,445
61.0
FY16E
3QE
13,055
2,023
15.5
260
175
1,938
0
1,938
213
11.0
1,725
100
1,625
Var
%
-2.4
16.3
Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Net Revenues
YoY Cha nge (%)
EBITDA
Ma rgi ns (%)
Depreci a ti on
Net Other Income
PBT before EO Exp
EO Exp/(Inc)
PBT
Ta x
Ra te (%)
PAT (pre Minority Interest)
Mi nori ty Interes t
Reported PAT
YoY Cha nge (%)
1H
18,890
1,838
9.7
310
480
2,008
0
2,008
297
14.8
1,712
0
1,712
17.1
16.2
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Kumar Saurabh
(Kumar.Saurabh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5584
Amey Chalke
(Amey.Chalke@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 39825423