12 February 2016
3QFY16 Results Update | Sector:
Utilities
BSE SENSEX
22,986
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
6,981
RTPOW IN
2,952.9
26.6/0.4
13 / 6
-22/35/5
19
42.5
RattanIndia Power
CMP: INR9
TP: INR 11 (+22%)
Buy
Backdown by DISCOMs impact PLF, PAT below estimate
Consolidated EBITDA below estimate:
RattanIndia Power reported
consolidated revenue of INR8.7b (up 476% YoY), lower than our estimate of
INR9.6b. Net generation at ~2.1BUs (v/s 1.54BUs in 2QFY16) lower than
estimate of 2.4BUs. This is due to higher backdown by DISCOMs due to poor
demand. Consolidated EBITDA was INR3.5b below our estimate of INR4.5b led
by the same. Higher fuel cost (INR2.27/unit v/s estimate of INR2/unit) led to
lower contribution. Reported net loss stood at INR295m, vs our estimate of
PAT of INR486m.
Amravati PLF at 69%+ in 3Q, Operational performance to look up from 4Q
onwards:
In 3QFY16, Amravati project PLF (plant load factor) improved to
69%, vs 56% in 2QFY16 and merely 20% in 1QFY16. It is important to note that
PAF (plant availability factor) however stood at 81%, vs 66% in 2QFY16 and
23% in 1QFY16. This indicates increased materialization of domestic coal and
higher receipt of imported coal. Given higher PAF for 3QFY16 and
improvement in seasonal demand in 4Q, operational performance would look
up from 4QFY16 onwards.
Cut FY16E earnings to factor lower PLF:
We have cut our FY16E earnings as
backdown has led to lower PLFs. We now expect net loss in FY16E of INR1.8b,
vs break-even earlier. We retain our FY17E/18E estimate as operations would
normalize from 4QFY16 onwards. Commissioning of Nashik project by CY16
and signing of PPA are key triggers. Stock trades at 3x FY17E EPS and 0.5x
FY17E BV.
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
Sales
EBITDA
NP
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
2016E
30.9
13.7
-1.8
-0.6
-73.3
16.7
-3.5
5.9
-14.4
0.5
2017E
53.6
27.7
8.9
3.0
-603.5
19.2
16.9
12.5
2.8
0.5
2018E
80.1
33.6
11.6
3.9
29.9
22.4
18.9
14.8
2.2
0.4
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Nalin Bhatt
(NalinBhatt@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5429
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

RattanIndia Power
Consolidated EBIDTA lower than estimate
RattanIndia Power reported consolidated revenue of INR8.7b, (up 476% YoY)
but lower than our estimate of INR9.6b. Net generation at ~2.1BUs (vs 468MUs
YoY) lower than estimate of 2.4BUs.
Consolidated EBITDA was INR3.5b below our estimate of INR4.5b led by the
same. Higher fuel cost (INR2.27/unit v/s estimate of INR2/unit) led to lower
contribution. Reported net loss stood at INR295m, vs our estimate of PAT of
INR486m.
Exhibit 2: Gross realization in 1Q aided by arrears
Realization per unit (INR)
Gross margin per unit (INR)
Fuel cost per unit (INR)
Exhibit 1: PLFs pick up in 3QFY16 (%)
Source: MOSL, Company
Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 3: Higher fuel cost impacts PAT
EBITDA per unit (INR)
PAT per unit (INR)
Exhibit 4: CoD of all units at Amravati ups cost in 1HFY16
Depreciation (INR m)
Interest cost (INR m)
1,822
1,198 1,219 1,221
606 605
429599
378 391210
117
60 193 202
87
872 912 923
2,682
2,9923,089
CT-Compensatory Tariff,
Source: MOSL, Company
Source: MOSL, Company
Amravati PLF at 69%+ in 3Q, Operational performance to look up from 4Q
onwards
In 3QFY16, Amravati project PLF (plant load factor) improved to 69%, vs 56% in
2QFY16 and merely 20% in 1QFY16.
It is important to note that PAF (plant availability factor) however stood at 81%,
vs 66% in 2QFY16 and 23% in 1QFY16.
This indicates increased materialization of domestic coal and higher receipt of
imported coal. Given higher PAF for 3QFY16 and improvement in seasonal
demand in 4Q, operational performance would look up from 4QFY16 onwards.
12 February 2016
2

RattanIndia Power
Valuations and view
Well placed on several fronts:
IBPOW’s capacity will grow to 2.7GW by CY16, vs
the current 1.6GW. It is favorably placed with 2.1GW of net capacity (~85% of
total capacity) tied up under LT PPA with reasonable tariff and 9.6mtpa of
domestic linkages/FSA for projects. In addition, IBPOW has land and requisite
clearances for ~4GW of capacity, offering visibility on growth option.
Bid tariffs entail near regulated return:
IBPOW’s bid tariffs for power projects
are skewed in favor of variable component, providing leverage to high
generation/PLF. Secured PPA, sub-INR4/unit average tariff, and PPAs with
financially better placed DISCOMs would trigger higher generation, as demand
outlook improves. Also, approval of compensatory tariff towards cost of
imported coal aids project profitability. Core returns/profitability from
generation are close to regulated returns (RoE of ~20%) and offer comfort.
Possibility of alternate PPA for Nashik project with Uttar Pradesh Power
Purchase Corporation (UPPCL) could provide significant fillip to project/overall
profitability and valuations.
Earnings growth back-ended, Nashik PPA crucial:
FY17 will be full year of
operations for both Amravati project and Nashik project and thus, near term
earnings growth will remain constrained. We retain our FY17E/18E estimate as
operatioans would normalize from 4QFY16 onwards. Commissioning of Nashik
project by CY16 and signing of PPA are key triggers. Stock trades at 3x FY17E EPS
and 0.5x FY17E BV.
12 February 2016
3

RattanIndia Power
Story in charts
Exhibit 5: Capacity of 2.7GW by CY16
Amravati
Nashik
2700
1350
PLF
(%)
Exhibit 6: PLF to look up in FY17E
Weighted Avg Cap (MW)
33%
50%
Generation (BUs)
68%
12.1
7.1
2.1
743
FY15
1,620
FY16E
2,025
FY17E
Source: MOSL, Company
270
810
270
540
Mar-14
Mar-15
1350
1620
270
1350
1350
Mar-16
Mar-17
Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 7: Interest cost absorption to be better
2.79
Interest (INR b)
Interest/unit
Exhibit 8: Project returns at near regulated levels (INR b)
10
8
5
3
1.03
0
-3
-5
-8
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
Source: MOSL, Company
Amravati PAT
RoE (%)
Nashik PAT
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
1.82
5.5
FY15
11.8
FY16E
11.5
FY17E
Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 9: Return ratios to look up
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Core RoE (%)*
16.9
5.9
(0.6)
(12.7)
(15.3)
FY15
21.4
12.5
Exhibit 10: Cashflow robust, leverage manageable
Free cash flow (INR b)
2.6
2.2
2.4
0.0
(14.3)
FY15
FY17E
Source: MOSL,
Company
Source: MOSL, Company
1.9
19.2
FY16E
1.7
5.7
FY17E
DSCR (x)
DER (x)
(3.5)
(4.8)
FY16E
*On project equity
12 February 2016
4

RattanIndia Power
Financials and Valuations
Income Statement
Y/E MARCH
Net Sales
Change (%)
Operating Expenses
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
PAT before Min. Int.
Minority Interest
Reported PAT
Change (%)
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
BALANCE SHEET
Y/E MARCH
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Minority Interest
Loans
Deferred tax liability
Capital Employed
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital Work in Progress
Exp during construction
Investments
Goodwill on Consolidation
Deffered Tax Assets
Inventory
Debtors
Other Current Assets
Loans and Advances
Cash
Current Assets
Curr. Liabilities
Provisions
Current Assets
Net Curr. Assets
Misc. Expenses
Application of Funds
E: MOSL Estimates
2011
0
363
-363
2012
0
382
-382
2013
0
1,668
-1,668
2014
3,388
2,961
427
12.6
665
1,315
588
-965
45
-4.7
-1,010
0
-1,011
13.3
-1,013
13.4
2015
6,252
5,997
255
4.1
1,898
5,459
613
-6,488
151
-2.3
-6,640
0
-6,640
LP
-6,640
-
2016E
30,911
17,179
13,732
44.4
3,941
11,824
564
-1,470
306
-20.8
-1,776
0
-1,776
-73.3
-1,776
-
2017E
53,593
73.4
25,938
27,655
51.6
5,654
11,474
246
10,773
1,831
17.0
8,942
0
8,942
-603.5
8,942
-603.5
(INR Million)
2018E
80,100
49.5
46,487
33,613
42.0
7,654
12,600
633
13,991
2,378
17.0
11,614
0
11,614
29.9
11,614
29.9
(INR Million)
2018E
29,529
36,746
66,276
19
114,631
0
180,925
189,950
22,046
167,904
0
0
0
0
0
1,164
3,292
0
0
12,386
16,842
3,821
0
3,821
13,021
0
180,925
9
13
442
57
6
10.8
51
1
50
-86.7
50
-86.7
12
47
1,678
1,238
362
29.3
876
6
870
1,636.6
870
1,636.6
13
60
676
-1,065
-175
16.4
-890
2
-892
-202.6
-893
-202.6
2011
20,229
18,949
42,223
8
10,350
1
52,582
1,702
36
1,665
15,162
4,116
13,261
3
23
0
0
1,139
27,709
2,658
31,506
12,995
159
13,154
18,352
52,582
2012
22,273
21,814
44,087
13
19,920
9
64,030
2,127
79
2,047
60,285
10,063
2,438
3
45
0
0
292
31,364
4,178
35,834
46,159
526
46,685
-10,851
64,030
2013
26,427
27,657
54,084
16
57,085
0
111,186
2,212
128
2,084
90,949
20,415
203
3
107
153
0
664
34,057
4,725
39,599
41,755
419
42,174
-2,575
111,186
2014
26,427
27,296
53,723
19
106,791
1
160,534
47,583
832
46,751
67,976
23,224
203
3
79
224
1,056
1,648
30,148
2,949
36,024
13,318
409
13,726
22,298
160,534
2015
29,529
21,435
50,965
19
122,161
69
173,213
90,722
2,776
87,945
46,027
20,712
203
3
0
835
2,061
1,797
24,722
2,536
31,951
12,540
1,088
13,628
18,323
0
173,213
2016E
29,529
19,659
49,189
19
126,872
0
176,079
109,950
8,737
101,213
60,046
0
0
0
0
424
1,270
0
0
14,538
16,233
1,412
0
1,412
14,821
0
176,079
2017E
29,529
27,093
56,622
19
121,876
0
178,517
189,950
14,392
175,558
0
0
0
0
0
642
2,202
0
0
2,246
5,090
2,132
0
2,132
2,958
0
178,517
12 February 2016
5

RattanIndia Power
Financials and Valuations
Ratios
Y/E MARCH
Basic (INR)
Adjusted EPS
Growth (%)
Cash EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout (incl. Div. Tax.)
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price/Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
2011
0.0
0.0
20.9
0.0
0.0
2012
0.4
0.4
19.8
0.0
0.0
2013
-0.3
-0.3
20.5
0.0
0.0
2014
-0.4
-0.1
20.3
0.0
0.0
2015
-2.2
488.1
-1.6
17.3
0.0
0.0
2016E
-0.6
-73.3
0.7
16.7
0.0
0.0
2017E
3.0
(604)
4.9
19.2
0.5
15.0
2018E
3.9
30
6.5
22.4
0.6
15.0
-22.6
-65.7
306.1
38.6
0.4
0.0
-3.8
-5.4
572.0
23.3
0.5
0.0
-14.4
11.8
11.1
4.9
0.5
0.0
2.8
1.7
5.3
2.7
0.5
5.3
2.2
1.3
1.2
0.8
0.4
6.8
0.1
0.1
2.0
2.2
-1.8
-1.1
-1.9
0.3
-12.7
-0.6
-3.5
5.9
16.9
12.5
18.9
14.8
0.2
0.5
1.1
2.0
2.4
2.6
2.2
1.7
CASH FLOW STATEMENT
Y/E MARCH
PBT before Extraordinary Items
Add : Depreciation
Interest
Less : Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
(Inc)/Dec in FA
Free Cash Flow
(Pur)/Sale of Investments
CF from Investments
(Inc)/Dec in Net worth
(Inc)/Dec in Preference Capital
(Inc)/Dec in Debt
(Inc)/Dec in Differed Tax Liability
Less : Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
CF from Fin. Activity
Inc/Dec of Cash
Add: Beginning Balance
Closing Balance
2011
57
9
13
-6
-1,662
-1,590
-13,568
-15,157
-1,311
-14,879
-3,280
0
-8,344
0
13
0
11,611
-4,857
7,515
2,658
2012
1,238
12
47
-362
30,722
31,657
-51,464
-19,807
10,801
-40,662
-994
0
-9,569
-8
47
0
10,525
1,519
2,658
4,178
2013
-1,065
13
60
175
-7,729
-8,546
-41,065
-49,611
2,172
-38,893
-10,890
0
-37,166
9
60
0
47,986
548
4,178
4,725
2014
-965
665
1,315
-45
-26,649
-25,679
-25,168
-50,847
28
-25,140
-651
0
-49,706
-1
1,315
0
49,043
-1,776
4,725
2,949
2015
-6,488
1,898
5,459
-151
3,562
4,279
-18,631
-14,352
79
-18,552
-3,882
0
-15,370
-68
5,459
0
13,860
-412
2,949
2,536
2016E
-1,470
3,941
11,824
-306
15,504
29,494
-10,515
18,978
206
-10,310
0
0
-4,711
69
11,824
0
-7,182
12,002
2,536
14,538
2017E
10,773
5,654
11,474
-1,831
-430
25,641
-19,955
5,686
0
-19,955
0
0
4,995
0
11,474
1,509
-17,978
-12,292
14,538
2,246
(INR Million)
2018E
13,991
7,654
12,600
-2,378
77
31,945
0
31,945
0
0
0
0
7,245
0
12,600
1,960
-21,805
10,140
2,246
12,386
12 February 2016
6

RattanIndia Power
Corporate profile: RattanIndia Power
Company description
RattanIndia Power is one of the leading developers
of power projects in India. It is presently
developing 2.7GW of projects – 1.35GW each at
Amravati and Nashik. Of these, it has already
commissioned entire 1.35GW at Amravati and one
unit at Nashik of 270MW, taking its operating
capacity at 1.62GW. Nashik project should be fully
commissioned by CY16.
Exhibit 11:
Sensex rebased
Exhibit 11: Shareholding pattern (%)
Dec-15
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
57.5
15.0
2.5
25.1
Sep-15
57.5
15.0
2.5
25.0
Dec-14
57.5
15.2
2.7
24.6
Exhibit 12: Top holders
Holder Name
FIM Ltd
Indiabulls Real Estate Ltd
LNM India Internet Ventures Ltd
Goldman Sachs India Fund Limited
Aquarius Ventures Pte Ltd
% Holding
13.3
7.4
4.6
1.4
1.2
Note: FII Includes depository receipts
Exhibit 13: Top management
Name
Rajiv Rattan
Jayant Kawale
Himanshu Mathur
Designation
Chairman
Managing Director
Executive Director
Exhibit 14: Directors
Name
Rajiv Rattan
Jayant Kawale
Prem Prakash Mirdha*
Shamsher Singh Ahlawat*
Brigadier Labh Singh Sitara*
Sharad Behal*
Name
Debashis Gupta*
Anjali Nashier
Yashish Dahiya*
Sanjiv Chhikara*
Narayanasany Jeevagan*
Himanshu Mathur
Pranab Kumar Sinha
*Independent
Exhibit 15: Auditors
Name
Delloite Haskins & Sells
S Khandelwal & Co
Nisha Vats & Co
Type
Statutory
Secretarial Audit
Cost Auditor
Exhibit 16: MOSL forecast v/s consensus
EPS
(INR)
FY16
FY17
FY18
MOSL
forecast
-0.6
3.0
3.9
Consensus
forecast
-
-
-
Variation
(%)
-
-
-
12 February 2016
7

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RattanIndia Power
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