Allcargo Logistics
BSE SENSEX
23,554
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm/ Vol m
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,163
AGLL IN
252.1
40.3 / 0.6
218 / 128
-10/12/15
46
30.1
15 February 2016
Q3FY16 Results Update | Sector: Logistics
CMP: INR160
TP: INR243(+52%)
Buy
Macros keep EBITDA/PAT subdued, CFS shines; high FCF keeps balance
sheet strong
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2016E 2017E 2018E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
56.2
67.6
74.2
EBITDA
5.3
6.4
7.2
PAT
2.9
3.6
4.4
EPS (INR)
11.5
14.4
17.4
Gr. (%)
20.8
25.0
21.1
BV/Sh (INR)
85.5
98.1 113.3
RoE (%)
14.3
15.7
16.5
RoCE (%)
15.2
17.5
19.1
P/E (x)
13.9
11.1
9.2
P/BV (x)
1.9
1.6
1.4
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
AGLL’s revenue declined 7% YoY and 9% QoQ to INR13.4b in 3QFY16 primarily
impacted by decline in MTO business. Reported EBITDA stood at INR1.2b (-13%
YoY, -14% QoQ); margins declined to 8.9% in 3QFY16 from 9.5% in 3QFY15. PAT
stood at INR0.6b (-14% YoY, -15% QoQ). For 9MFY16, Allcargo’s PAT grew 13% YoY
and its balance sheet continues to remain strong with debt/equity of 0.14 (net debt
of INR2.9b).
MTO volumes up 8% YoY in tough operating environment:
In the backdrop of
excess shipping capacity, Allcargo’s MTO volumes were decent with volumes at
116,168 TEUs (+8% YoY, -1% QoQ) in 3QFY16. Revenues stood at INR11b (-9%
YoY, -11% QoQ) primarily due to decline in freight rates (a pass through
component). While, EBIT stood at INR539m (-12% YoY, -14% QoQ) and margin
at 4.9% (5.1% in 3QFY15, flat QoQ), impacted by expansion costs for new
offices in Americas, Middle East & South East Asia.
CFS business performing strongly:
CFS volumes stood at 74,251 TEUs (+5%
YoY, flat QoQ). CFS revenue stood at INR1.2b (+8.5% YoY, flat QoQ).
Realizations stood at INR15,461/TEU as compared to INR14,566/TEU in
2QFY16. Realizations increased in 3QFY16 primarily due to handling of special
cargo and long standing containers. EBIT/TEU stood at INR5,172/TEU as
compared to INR4,570INR/TEU in 2QFY16 driven by improved efficiencies.
P&E business margins impacted by ship repairs:
While P&E revenue increased
6% YoY to INR1,399m, EBIT declined 45% to INR94m, impacted by (a)
additional depreciation on two new ships that were acquired in 2QFY16, (b)
repair of two ships and (c)INR110m derivative income in 3QFY15. Its crane
utilization continues to be above 90%.
Valuation and view:
We estimate EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 15%/23% through FY15-18E and return
ratios are expected to improve from ~13% to 17%-19% driven by improvement
in margins and reduction in capex intensity in the business.
We value Allcargo Logistics at 14x FY18E EPS, and arrive at a target price of
INR243. Maintain buy. The stock trades at 10.6x FY18EPS.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Harshad Borawake
(HarshadBorawake@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5432
Rajat Agarwal
(Rajat.Agarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5558