15 February 2016
Q3FY16 Results Update | Sector: Others
Jain Irrigation
Buy
BSE SENSEX
23,554
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm/ Vol m
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,163
JI IN
443.1
24.5 / 0.4
79 / 50
-9/-4/1
281
71.3
CMP: INR54
TP: INR68(+28%)
Results below estimates; de-leveraging on track
Results below estimates:
JI reported overall revenue of INR13.8b (est. of
INR14.5b), marking a 6.7% YoY growth. EBITDA stood at INR1.5b (est. of
INR1.7) in 3QFY16, with EBITDA margins at 11.1% (est. of 12%), a contraction of
40bp. During the quarter, forex gain stood at INR384m. Consequently, adjusted
PAT for the quarter stood at a loss of INR265m (est. a loss of INR55m) as
against a loss of INR145m in 3QFY15.
Growth led by overseas business:
Growth was led by exports which grew
11.3%. Contribution of overseas markets in consolidated revenue was at
50.5%. On a consolidated basis, MIS business grew 7.9% YoY, while food
processing grew 11.3% YoY and piping business grew 13.1% YoY. On a
standalone basis, MIS grew 6% where retail grew 14%, exports grew 9% while
projects business de-grew 21.7%. Projects business is generally lumpy and
newer contracts were still under negotiation. Piping business grew 12.8% led
by PE piping which grew 23.8%, food processing grew 1.6% led by onion
dehydration of 76.7% while fruit processing business de-grew 15.4%. Strong
growth in onion is due to base effect where onion as raw material was not
available last year. Margins in MIS business were sub-20%. The fund raising of
USD120m transaction is expected to completely by 4Q and should go towards
deleveraging.
3QFY16 sees food processing foray into B2C:
JI recently launched their first
branded retail product called “AamRus” under the brand name of “Jain
FarmFresh”. This was in-line with plans to enter the B2C business. JI has also
signed an MOU at the Make in India week with Hindustan Coca Cola Beverages
(HCCB) and Maharashtra government to partner for orange processing,
marking JI’s extension with HCCB into orange segment.
Valuation and view:
We expect 10.4% revenue CAGR, and 13% EBITDA CAGR
over FY15-18, translating into EPS growth from INR1.9 in FY15 to INR7.6 in
FY18. We cut our estimates by 11%/20%/23% for FY16/FY17/FY18 to factor in
lower topline growth and higher interest costs. Maintain
Buy
with a TP of
INR68, 9x FY18E EPS (rolled over to FY18).
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2016E 2017E 2018E
Y/E Mar
66.1
73.7
82.7
Net Sales
8.7
10.0
11.2
EBITDA
1.5
2.8
3.9
PAT
3.1
5.4
7.6
EPS (INR)
69.0
73.0
39.6
Gr. (%)
65.5
64.0
70.7
BV/Sh (INR)
5.7
8.9
11.3
RoE (%)
10.3
12.0
13.4
RoCE (%)
17.0
9.8
7.1
P/E (x)
0.8
0.8
0.8
P/BV (x)
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
-23%
-17%
Niket Shah
(Niket.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5426
Chintan Modi
(Chintan.Modi@MotilalOswal.com); +912239825422/Kaustubh
Kale
(Kaustubh.Kale@MotilalOswal.com); +912230102498
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.