16 February 2016
Q3FY16 Results Update | Sector: Fertilizers
PI Industries
Buy
BSE SENSEX
23,192
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, (INR m)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,048
PI IN
137.1
79 / 1.2
786/552
-7/0/23
160
41.6
CMP: INR576
TP: INR755 (+31%)
Levers intact; Growth momentum to continue
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016E 2017E 2018E
21.2
26.1
31.6
Net Sales
4.4
5.6
7.0
EBITDA
2.9
3.7
4.7
PAT
21.0
26.9
34.3
EPS (INR)
16.9
28.0
27.5
Gr. (%)
82.4 103.9 131.5
BV/Sh (INR)
28.4
28.9
29.2
RoE (%)
36.4
38.5
40.5
RoCE (%)
27.3
21.3
16.7
P/E (x)
7.0
5.5
4.4
P/BV (x)
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
3%
6%
Revenue growth below estimate:
PI reported overall revenue of INR5,110m (est.
INR6,261m) in 3QFY16, a 1.2% YoY growth led by CSM business which grew 9%
while agri business de-grew 13% due to lower acreages in rabi. CSM business
showed moderate performance due to deferred procurement schedules from
global customers on account of higher inventory at customer end, impacting
geographies like USA, Brazil and Australia.
EBITDA margin expands 190bp:
EBITDA margin expanded 190bp to 20.5% (est.
18.7%), led by better mix of revenues as share of high margin CSM increased to
72% in 3QFY16 from 68% in 3QFY15 also aided by better product mix and cost
efficiencies. EBITDA stood at INR1,048m (est. INR1,171m), up 11.4% YoY. Tax rate
was lower at 24.7% (31.9% in 3QFY15) due to tax benefits on account of Jambusar
facility. Adj. PAT grew 19% to INR704m (est. INR748m) in 3QFY16.
CSM order book grows 28% QoQ:
Order book stood at USD780m, growing 28%
QoQ from USD610m in 3QFY16. Management highlighted that the same is
executable over next 3-4 years. The increase in order book was from both existing
as well as newer molecules. Jambusar Phase III began operations in Jan 2016 and
thus both Phase II and III are now operational (income tax exempt for first 5 years);
coupled with commercialization of 1-2 molecules every year, and execution of
order book should drive CSM revenue going ahead. PI launched Bio Vita X and
Vibrant (addressable market of INR13b) during the quarter which shall keep
momentum for domestic business going forward. Recently launched products
currently contribute ~15% of revenues, signifying growth potential for ramp up.
Management highlighted that Nominee Gold should continue to post strong
growth since opportunity is huge while penetration is 10% (as against potential for
30%), also dynamics for rice are still favorable as compared to corn and cotton.
Valuation and view:
We cut our estimates by 4.5%/5.2%/3.2% for FY16/FY17/FY18
to factor in back-ended recovery in CSM and agro. With best-in-class capital
efficiency (40% RoCE), insignificant debt-to-equity and robust growth outlook (18%
revenue CAGR and 24% PAT CAGR), we believe PI is one of the best plays on India’s
agri sector and CSM opportunities. We believe mix change in favor of the R&D-
intensive CSM business would continue to drive rerating for the stock. We maintain
Buy
rating with a target price of INR755, 22x FY18E EPS (rolled over to FY18).
Niket Shah
(Niket.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5426
Chintan Modi
(Chintan.Modi@MotilalOswal.com); +912239825422/Kaustubh
Kale
(Kaustubh.Kale@MotilalOswal.com); +912230102498
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.