24 February 2016
4QCY15 Results Update | Sector: Lubricants
BSE SENSEX
23,089
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val (INR m)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,019
CSTRL IN
494.6
201/2.9
518 / 370
3/3/6
128
29.0
Castrol India
CMP: INR407
TP: INR474 (+16%)
Neutral
EBITDA miss due to lower volumes and higher other expenses; await
volume growth revival
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E Dec
Sales
EBITDA
Adj. PAT
Adj. EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh.(INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
2015
32.9
8.8
6.0
12.0
24.5
12.0
76.6
107.8
33.9
34.0
2016E
34.3
9.7
6.7
13.5
12.5
13.9
109.2
154.7
30.2
29.4
4-7%
7%
2017E
36.2
10.6
7.3
14.8
9.2
15.8
104.7
144.3
27.6
25.8
Castrol India’s 4QCY15 EBITDA of INR2.1b (+3% YoY, -2% QoQ) was below our
est. of INR2.4b led by (a) lower–than-expected volumes; (b) higher other
operating expenses due to INR100m of CSR expenses. Reported PAT was below
expectations at INR1.4b (+7% YoY, -2% QoQ)—led by higher than expected tax
rate of 37.4% (est. of 34%).
Revenue stood at INR7.9b (est. of INR8.6b; -7.9% YoY, -0.9% QoQ) impacted by
(a) lower volumes and (b) lower realizations
Realization stood at INR171/ltr (-4% YoY, flat QoQ) while sales volume stood at
46.1m ltr (-4% YoY, +2% QoQ). QoQ volume increase was primarily due to
seasonality. Automotive volumes increased 2% QoQ. While overall automotive
market has declined, personal mobility market volumes have increased. Poor
monsoons have impacted rural demand and in particular in agriculture segment.
Gross margin INR90/lt (+15% YoY, +2% QoQ); the QoQ increase was due to lower
RM costs at INR80.8/ltr (-18% YoY, -4% QoQ).
EBITDA margin 26.6% (v/s 23.8% in 4QCY14 and 27.2% in 3QCY15) —EBITDA
margin was lower QoQ despite higher gross margins due to CSR expenses of
INR100m. Adj. EBITDA margin stands at 27.8%.
Castrol declared a final dividend of INR5/share (full year stands at INR9/share).
Outlook:
Lubricant business volume recovery continues to be delayed led by
subdued economic activity. Industrial segment will continue to see a drag and is
expected to show uptick with the likely economic pick-up toward end CY16.
INR/USD volatility is a concern. Expect volume uptick in 1QCY16 due to increased
discounts being offered by the company.
Valuation and view:
We reduce our earnings CY16/CY17 EPS by 7%/4% due to
delay in the volume uptick versus our earlier expectations. Earlier than expected
economic uptick is an upside risk to our estimates. Our fair value stands at
INR474 at 35x CY16E EPS. CSTRL trades at 30.2x/27.6 CY16E/CY17E EPS of
INR13.5/14.8.
Neutral.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Harshad Borawake
(HarshadBorawake@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5432
Rajat Agarwal
(Rajat.Agarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5558