25 FEBRUARY 2016
SECTOR: TEXTILES
KPR Mill
BSE SENSEX
23,088
S&P CNX
7,018.70
(INR CRORES)
CMP: INR640 TP: INR910 (+42%)
Buy
Y/E MARCH
Revenue
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
NP (Adj.)
EPS (Adj.)
EPS Growth
BV/share
Core ROE (%)
Core ROCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
FY16E
2,439
476
19.5%
206
54.7
19%
293
20
18
11.7
2.2
FY17E
2,664
522
19.6%
244
64.9
19%
342
20
20
9.9
1.9
FY18E
2,866
590
20.6%
285
75.6
17%
400
20
22
8.5
1.6
We recommend to BUY KPR Mill for a target of INR 910 -
valuing the company at a 12.0x FY18E EPS.
Indian textile industry poised for 10% cagr:
Indian textile and
apparel industry is estimated to reach USD 221 bn in 2021 from USD
89 bn in 2011 (9.5% CAGR). Rising Chinese domestic consumption,
labour issues in China and Bangladesh and increasing power cost are
favourable for Indian export growth.
Value addition in yarn to raise profitability:
KPR has a capacity
of 90,000 MT and 27,000 MT in yarn and fabric segments, respectively.
It is gradually converting part of the yarn capacity towards higher
margin colored and mélange yarn. KPR is not looking at expanding
yarn and fabric capacity. The fabric capacity is likely to be utilized
internally given planned garment capacity expansion.
Garment expansion to aid growth:
The garment capacity expansion
to 5.9 cr pieces p.a. over the past 3 yrs is being followed-up by a
further expansion of 3.6cr pieces to take capacity upto 9.5 cr pieces
by Q1 FY17E. Garments is a export-oriented business with Europe
contributing ~70% of revenues. KPR caters to ~40 major brands in
Europe and new clients in the US will diversify its customer base. We
expect this business to grow at 30% CAGR upto FY18E.
Self-sufficiency in power:
Spinning, weaving and processing are
highly power intensive processes. The company has wind power
capacity of 61.9MW & Co-gen plant of 30MW. We believe power
cost is a key advantage for KPR Mills as is continuous availability that
is crucial to avoiding wastage in the spinning and weaving business.
Debt reduction to improve profitability:
Strong cash flow
generation has enabled KPR to reduce its long term debt from INR
313cr at FY15 end to INR 240cr in Q3 FY16. A rise in garment revenue
share will reduce working capital requirement and help bring down
the debt to revenue ratio. KPR plans to further reduce debt by repaying
high cost debt of ~INR 100cr that should aid in reducing interest cost
and improving profitability.
Valuations & View:
Vertically integration and self sufficiency in power
aid cost competitiveness, while the garment business is expected to
drive revenues. Increasing utilization of the garment capacity, foray
into valued added yarns along with reduction of debt will enhance
profitability leading to a PAT CAGR of 18% over FY16-18E. We
value KPR Mills at 12x FY 18E EPS of INR 75.6 providing for an
upside of 42%. We recommend to BUY for a TP of INR910.
KEY FINANCIALS
Diluted Shares (cr)
Market Cap. (Rs cr)
Market Cap. (US$ m)
Past 3 yrs Sales Growth (%)
Past 3 yrs NP Growth (%)
3.8
2,412
355
24%
30%
STOCK DATA
52-W High/Low Range (INR)
923/456
Major Shareholders (as of 29nd September 2015)
Promoter
Institutions
Public & Others
Average Daily Turnover(6 months)
Volume
Value (Rs cr)
1/6/12 Month Rel. Performance (%)
1/6/12 Month Abs. Performance (%)
75.0
14.2
10.9
40,468
3.2
(14)/(3)/55
(16)/(16)/37
Maximum Buy Price :INR665
Ravi Shenoy
(ravi.shenoy@MotilalOswal.com); Tel: +91 22 30896865
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.