GAIL India
BSE SENSEX
24,677
S&P CNX
7,513
18 March 2016
Update
| Sector:
Oil & Gas
CMP: INR353
TP: INR376 (+6%)
Neutral
KG tariff order gives upside hopes for other networks
PNGRB implements Jan-2016 amendments; however differences on
multiple assumptions continue
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val ( INR m)
Free float (%)
GAIL IN
1,268.5
418/260
1/29/7
447.9
6.7
528
43.9
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016E 2017E 2018E
Sales
506.8 582.5 735.6
EBITDA
40.9
57.0
64.8
Adj. PAT
22.0
32.2
39.3
Adj. EPS (INR)
17.4
25.4
31.0
EPS Gr. (%)
-26.4
46.4
22.0
BV/Sh.(INR)
242.5 260.3 282.1
RoE (%)
7.3
10.1
11.4
RoCE (%)
8.9
12.4
14.0
P/E (x)
20.3
13.9
11.4
P/BV (x)
1.5
1.4
1.3
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
Dec-15 Sep-15 Dec-14
56.1
23.8
17.6
2.5
56.1
23.9
17.5
2.5
56.1
20.2
21.4
2.3
Petroleum and natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) published its first final
tariff order for GAIL’s KG basin network. This tariff order was based Jan-16
regulation amendment for volume divisor and prospective applicability for
changed tariff.
PNGRB has set KG basin tariff (in INR/mmbtu) at 5.6/5.6/45.3 vs GAIL’s
demand of 5.6/181/181 for FY09-15/FY16/FY17 respectively.
However, as the current economic life of this network ends in FY17,
prospective tariff of INR45.3/mmbtu will be applicable for only one year and
tariff will be computed again from FY18 after considering ongoing capex and
extended life.
We currently model 7% increase in overall tariff and would await the tariff
orders for other pipelines before revisiting our assumptions.
KG basin tariff lower than demand; but still better than current tariff
Jan-16 amendment use a positive; await orders for other pipelines
PNGRB notified KG basin network (contributes ~6mmscd of current
97mmscmd transmission volumes) tariff at INR5.6/mmbtu for Nov 20, 2008 to
March 31, 2016 and at INR45.32/mmbtu for April 1, 2016 to Feb 11, 2017.
In May-2013, PNGRB had reduced KG basin tariff from actual INR17.4/mmbtu
to INR5.6/mmbtu. We estimate that the prospective tariff of INR45.32/mmbtu
is equivalent to ~INR9/mmbtu if it were retrospective from Nov-18.
While we already model ~7% increase in our FY17 blended tariff, the
prospective tariff of INR45.32/mmbtu for FY17 will increase EPS by ~6%.
PNGRB tariff order is based on its Jan-16 amendments for tariff calculations
for (a) volume divisor – capacity at 75% and (b) prospective applicability of
tariff for remaining life of the pipeline.
Over the last few years, PNGRB have given several provisional tariff orders for
GAIL’s pipelines. We expect the final tariff orders for these pipelines soon and
with the implementation of Jan-16 amendment expect tariffs to be higher
than provisional.
GAIL’s transmission business outlook remains challenging in the backdrop of
largely stagnant domestic production and improved economics of liquid fuels
versus natural gas. Improving viability of LNG to power sector could boost LNG
imports and inturn GAIL’s transmission volumes.
Petchem business outlook has improved post the Ras Gas long term LNG price
reset, however final product price improvement critical for meaningful profit
increase in both petchem and LPG segments.
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
GAIL (India)
Sensex - Rebased
450
400
350
300
250
Earnings outlook mixed; recent Ras Gas reset improves petchem outlook
Harshad Borawake
(HarshadBorawake@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5432
Rajat Agarwal
(Rajat.Agarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5558
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.