21 March 2016
Update
| Sector:
Consumer
ITC
Buy
BSE SENSEX
25,285
S&P CNX
7,704
CMP: INR330
TP: INR365 (+11%)
Price hikes in KSFT as expected; volume driven strategy at play
Reduced pictorial warnings on the anvil?
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val ( INR m)
Free float (%)
ITC IN
8,038.3
360/268
2/7/11
2,652.6
39.9
2,658
100.0
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016E 2017E 2018E
Net Sales
362.7 394.2 435.7
EBITDA
140.8 156.3 173.8
PAT
98.7 111.7 127.2
EPS (INR)
12.3
13.9
15.9
Gr. (%)
2.7
13.1
14.0
BV/Sh (INR)
42.7
47.7
53.4
RoE (%)
30.4
30.8
31.4
RoCE (%)
38.4
38.8
39.3
P/E (x)
24.0
21.2
18.6
P/BV (x)
6.9
6.2
5.5
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
Dec-15 Sep-15 Dec-14
0.0
35.2
21.0
43.8
0.0
35.1
21.0
43.9
0.0
34.8
21.0
44.2
As highlighted in our earlier communication dated 7
th
March, ITC has
implemented ~13% price hikes in King Size Filter segment.
ITC’s focus on Cig volume growth is quite evident as there is no price hike in
RSFT (Regular Size Filters) and <65mm segment as of now as per our
distributor checks. We expect price hikes in RSFT segment in next six
months. However <64mm may not see any hike this year given the
consistent increase in share of illicit Cigarettes to ~18% and price sensitive
nature of the segment.
FY17 Cig volumes could stabilize given the relatively benign excise increase
and a consequent benign Cigarette price hike calendar, in our view.
We like ITC’s Cig. Volume focus and a staggered pricing approach. Cigarette
volume recovery will be an important driver for multiple re-rating in the
near term. Maintain BUY with a TP of INR 365 (23x FY18 EPS). We see upside
risks and a strong possibility of ITC trading at 25x P/E if Cig volumes recover
in next few quarters.
13% price hikes in King Size Cigarettes:
As highlighted in our earlier
communications, ITC has implemented a 13% price hike in King Size Cigarettes
with both Classic and Gold Flake Kings prices revised upwards from INR 218 to
INR 246 for a pack of 20 sticks. In some states with higher Cig. VAT, prices are
revised to INR 250/20 sticks. This price hike amounts to ~3.5% on ITC’s total
Cig portfolio on a weighted average basis.
No price hike in RSFT and DSFT; volume focus strategy:
Our distributor
checks do not suggest any increase in prices in the RSFT (~ 70% of volumes)
and DSFT (~ 15% of volumes) segments at the moment. We expect price hikes
in RSFT in next six months but no price change in DSFT this year. In our view,
ITC is prioritizing Cig volumes in FY17 and thus price hikes in rest of the
segments will be staggered. Secondly, the persistent price hikes of last 3-4
years post the aggressive excise increases have driven the share of illicit
Cigarettes to ~18-20% vs. ~9% eight years back. Therefore a price hike in
64mm at this stage may drive volumes further towards illicit segment (entry
level pricing for 64mm segment stands at INR 3/stick).
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
ITC
Sensex - Rebased
400
360
320
280
240
Gautam Duggad
(Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5404
Vishal Punmiya
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4261
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.