Grasim Industries
BSE SENSEX
24,900
S&P CNX
7,597
30 March 2016
Update
| Sector:
Cement
CMP: INR3,769
TP: INR4,900 (+30%)
Visit takeaways from its newest asset at Vilayat
Buy
Focus on market leadership, efficiency and brand building
We visited Grasim’s Vilayat asset situated over 550acre of land with 3 core plants (VSF,
Chemical and Epoxy) and 7 auxiliary plants for captive feeding. The assets account for 24%
of VSF and 40% of chemical capacity (~35% and ~60% of segmental capital employed
respectively). We also interacted with top managements of each division to understand
strategic focus areas. We present key takeaways from the visit.
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val ( INR m)
Free float (%)
GRASIM IN
93.3
3,856/3,242
7/13/15
351.8
5.3
238
69.3
Brand building and premiumization in VSF taking center stage
VSF management highlights lack of pull factor in VSF product among end consumers. VSF
offers best combination of strength and comfort compared to cotton and PSF. Therefore,
strategy would be to enhance awareness through “LIVA” brand by extensive marketing
along with downstream partners. There is consistent focus on raising the mix of specialty
fiber viz. modal and micro-modal VSF (having higher tenacity and comfort v/s Grey VSF),
due to (a) untapped and less competitive market (mainly Lenzing – no Chinese players), and
(b) strong resilience in profitability.
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016E 2017E 2018E
Sales
362.1 421.4 479.7
EBITDA
59.4
73.3
94.2
Adj. PAT
22.0
28.2
35.8
Adj. EPS (INR)
239.1 306.6 389.7
EPS Gr. (%)
25.5
28.3
27.1
BV/Sh. (INR)
2,732 3,014 3,379
RoE (%)
8.8
10.2
11.5
RoCE (%)
13.8
14.5
18.2
EV/EBITDA (x)
9.4
7.3
5.4
EV/Ton (x)
116
93
92
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
Dec-15 Sep-15 Dec-14
30.7
17.4
22.8
29.1
25.5
17.4
37.0
20.2
25.5
16.7
37.0
20.8
Fundamental strength intact in VSF; margin resilience to improve
Grasim is well poised with (a) VSF being the best growing fiber (12% CAGR v/s PSF 4% and
cotton -1% over FY09-14), (b) India being the fastest growth market for apparel (8% CAGR
v/s 4% for world), and (c) Grasim being the market leader with 9% global share. Plants are
operating at 95%+ utilizations with rise in domestic demand. Albeit pricing outlook remains
volatile, management expects resilience to profitability from high backward integration,
rising mix of specialty fiber and higher domestic demand which offers better realizations.
Vilayat is the most efficient asset of the company
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Grasim Inds
Sensex - Rebased
4,100
3,800
3,500
3,200
2,900
Grasim’s Vilayat plant (120,00 TPA, 24% of VSF capacity) is the newest and first fully
automated plant. With straight line layout, it enjoys best in class energy efficiency, waste &
emission management and ~20% lower conversion cost compared to other 3 VSF plants of
Grasim. The plant consumes 40-50% lower water, 15-20% lower pulp and 3% lower caustic
soda on unitary usage basis. Moreover proximity to port aids logistics benefits for pulp
import. Specialty products account for 30-35% of mix. The plant capacity can be doubled
with lower outlay of capex and time, given land and infrastructure already in place.
Gain in market share a key focus area in Chemical, await capex clarity
Post ABCL merger, chemical segment gained 22% domestic market share. Its multi-location
plants and proximity to ports render cost advantage of (a) fragmented chlorine demand,
and (b) cheap availability of salt. Vilayat plant enjoys superior power efficiency
(2,200unit/ton v/s industry average of 2,500unit /ton). On the back competitive strength,
chemical management aims for strong scale up over medium-term to gain ~25% market
share in south-Asia, doubling of Vilayat Capacity (182K TPA now) and de-bottlenecking in
Epoxy plant by 20K TPA (51KTPA now). However capital allocation plan lacks clarity.
Sandipan Pal
(Sandipan.Pal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Aashumi Mehta
(Aashumi.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3010 2397
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P