26 April 2016
4QFY16 Results Update | Sector:
Financials
BSE SENSEX
25,679
Bloomberg
Indiabulls Housing Finance’s (IHFL) PAT grew 23% YoY and 12% QoQ to INR6.75b
Equity Shares (m)
426.2
(in line). AUM growth of 31.5% YoY, stable asset quality and spreads of 318bp
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 293.7/4.3
were the key highlights of the quarter.
52-Week Range (INR)
820 / 518
Strong disbursements growth (+40% YoY) drove AUM up 29.5% YoY to INR687b.
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
3/-4/28
Loan mix continued to shift in favor of housing loans. Management guided over
Avg Val (INR m)
1338
the next two years share of housing loans will increase to 60% (52% as of FY16);
Free float (%)
75.8
LAP and LRD would be 20% each. Home loan disbursements to salaried segment
were 70% of overall disbursement and balance were to self-employed. The
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
proportion is likely to be stable in the ensuing years.
Y/E March
2016 2017E 2018E
NII growth remained healthy at 29% YoY on the back of 318bp of book spreads and
Net Fin inc
28.7 36.0 45.7
300bp incremental spreads, aided by reduction in cost of funds. Overall cost of
PPP
36.3 44.5 55.4
funds stood at 9.34% whereas incremental borrowing cost stood 8.84%. GNPAs
EPS (INR)
55.7 68.6 85.4
remained stable sequentially at 0.84% v/s 0.83% in 3QFY16; however provisions at
EPS Gr. (%)
4.1 23.3 24.4
INR2.15b were up 39% YoY as the company provided additional buffer of INR1b.
BV/Sh. (INR)
254 280 316
RoA on AUM
3.4
3.3
3.4
Other highlights:
a) Spike in fee income came from 2 large loans underwritten. b)
(%)
Increase in opex was driven by continues investment into franchise and higher CSR
RoE (%)
27.1 25.7 28.6
Payout (%)
64.7 52.5 50.0
expenses. c) O/S ZCBs stand at INR12b v/s INR20b in 4Q15- wont issue further
Valuations
ZCBs. d) Sold loans of INR37.9b in FY16 v/s 25b in FY15 e) Not looking to raise
P/E (x)
12.1
9.8
7.9
capital for next 6-7 years.
P/BV (x)
2.6
2.4
2.1
Valuation and view:
IHFL’s transformation from a diversified lender to a focused
P/ABV (x)
2.6
2.4
2.1
mortgage player has yielded returns, with RoE/RoA improving from 3%/0.8% in
Div. Yield (%)
5.4
5.4
6.4
FY09 to +26%/3.5% in FY16. Focus on mortgage and market share gains will drive
AUM growth of 24% for the next three years. IHFL is among the lowest-levered
HFCs (4.7x) to support growth. Asset quality trend is likely to remain stable.
Improved borrowing profile, better credit rating and liquidity buffer will aid the
company maintain healthy spreads. De-risked business model, superior
profitability and +5% dividend yield warrant premium. The stock is trading at PBV
of 2.1x FY18E. Maintain
Buy
with a target price of INR868 (2.75x FY18E PB).
S&P CNX
7,855
IHFL IN
CMP: INR671
Indiabulls Housing Finance
TP: INR868 (+29%)
Buy
Sunesh Khanna
(Sunesh.Khanna@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5521
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com);
+91 22 3982 5415
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.