26 April 2016
1QCY16 Results Update | Sector: Capital Goods
ABB
BSE SENSEX
26,007
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, (INR m)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,963
ABB IN
211.9
274.0 / 4.1
1,444/963
5/5/2
89
25.0
CMP: INR1,293 TP: INR1,220 (-6%)
Neutral
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Dec
2015 2016E 2017E
Net Sales
81.4
87.0 100.7
EBITDA
7.5
8.8
11.1
PAT
3.3
4.2
5.5
EPS (INR)
15.8
19.6
26.1
Gr. (%)
22.8
24.6
32.8
BV/Sh (INR)
142.0 161.2 187.3
RoE (%)
11.1
12.2
13.9
RoCE (%)
10.6
12.8
14.5
P/E (x)
82.1
65.9
49.6
P/BV (x)
9.1
8.0
6.9
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Execution remains strong; margin below estimate
Operational performance a mixed bag:
ABB’s 1QCY16 revenue at INR20b, up
10% YoY, was 6.4% higher than our estimate, while the adjusted EBIDTA
margin at 7.9%, flat YoY, was below our estimate of 9.5%. Key segments which
witnessed a strong performance were Discrete Automation with revenue at
INR7.7b (+32% YoY) and Electrification Products (+22.7% YoY). The decline in
Power Grid revenue to INR7.3b (-7.0%) was mainly a timing related issue, as
sales continued to be as per scheduled delivery. Adjusted PAT at INR790m was
marginally ahead of our estimate of INR760m on back of higher Other Income.
There was a forex loss of INR80m during the quarter.
Gross margin close to all time high:
Gross margin at 35.8% (+150bp) reflected
various initiatives taken over the last 3-4 years in terms of increased
localization, rationalization of supply chain, improving efficiency, better project
management capabilities, lower raw material prices and benefits of the EUR
depreciation. CY15 gross margin stood at 35% and management expects these
levels to sustain, going forward.
Order inflow stagnates due to weak finalization of orders:
Order inflow was
flat at INR18.3b (-1% YoY) on account of weak finalization of large orders.
Segments like Renewable, T&D, and Railways supported order inflow, though
ordering in traditional sectors such as Cement, Steel and Oil & Gas remained
muted due to underutilization of existing capacities.
Valuation and view:
Management is still cautiously optimistic on the demand
scenario and remains focused on margin expansion through improvement in
operational efficiencies and localization efforts. While segments such as
Transmission, Renewable and Transportation are witnessing traction, an
improvement in traditional sectors of Steel, Cement and Oil & Gas remains
elusive. Valuations stand at 65.9x/49.6x CY16/17E EPS of INR19.6/26.1.
Maintain
Neutral,
with a price target of INR1,220 (40x CY18 EPS of INR30.5).
Ankur Sharma
(Ankur.VSharma@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5449
Amit Shah
(Amit.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3029 5126
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.