BSE SENSEX
25,120
S&P CNX
7,707
Godrej Consumer
CMP: INR1,336
TP: INR1,325(-1%)
Project Leapfrog II articulated
Neutral
Accelerating core growth
We recently attended Godrej Consumer’s Analyst Meet. The following are
the key takeaways:
4 May 2016
Update
| Sector:
Consumer
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
GCPL IN
340.5
1457 / 1024
-3/12/35
454.9
6.9
312
36.7
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
Net Sales
89.6 110.0 126.2
EBITDA
16.1
20.8
23.4
PAT
11.4
14.0
16.1
EPS (INR)
33.6
41.1
47.3
Gr. (%)
26.1
22.3
15.1
BV/Sh (INR)
150.4 179.8 215.4
RoE (%)
23.9
24.9
23.9
RoCE (%)
19.5
21.3
20.6
P/E (x)
39.7
32.5
28.2
P/BV (x)
8.9
7.4
6.2
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Dec-15 Sep-15 Dec-14
Promoter
63.3
63.3
63.3
DII
1.8
1.7
1.9
FII
28.7
28.7
29.0
Others
6.3
6.3
5.9
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Godrej Consumer
Sensex - Rebased
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
Overall business:
In FY16, GCPL’s international business contributed 47% of its
consolidated sales. The company caters to 2b people across its targeted
geographies. Out of GCPL’s consolidated sales, Household Insecticides
comprised 33%, Hair Care 27%, Personal Wash 18% and Others 22%. The Top 8
brands made up 75% of total sales and included Good Knight, Hit India, Hit
Indonesia, Godrej No. 1, Godrej Expert, Cinthol, Stella and Darling. In 90% of
their global categories, these brands are ranked either first or second in terms
of market share. In the air freshener category, the company is No. 1 in
Indonesia and No. 2 in India. GCPL expects to become No. 1 in India in the
category over the next 2-3 years if the current momentum sustains. The
management reckons that their personal care approach to the Air Freshener
segment is helping it develop better products in comparison to global MNCs
focusing on the traditional Home Care segment. Project Pi led to savings of
INR750m in FY16 as a result of (a) Strategic sourcing all clusters, (b) Packaging
modifications, (c) Manufacturing efficiencies and (d) Optimization of ATL and
BTL marketing expenses.
Overall business strategy ahead:
The management announced the start of
Project Leapfrog II which will involve: (a) Thinking boldly about future targets
of being among the Top 3 players in HPC in India and Indonesia, becoming the
No 1 HPC player in Sub-Saharan Africa and the leading hair color company in
LatAm (ex-Brazil,) (b) Accelerating core growth mainly by driving reach and
penetration, (c) Placing a few bets to plant seeds for the future, including Air
Care, Hair Styling and Wellness in India, Baby Care and Hair Care in Indonesia,
and Hair Care and Household Insecticides in Africa, (d) Drive profitability to
fund growth plans, (e) Invest in developing talent and capabilities.
Going forward, the management has guided for a larger proportion of overseas
business as compared to India sales. The company is well-placed to grow
sharply in HPC on the S Curve in a number of emerging markets. For FY17,
Africa, Godrej Protekt and BBlunt will be the key focus areas. BBlunt
advertising, which will commence in this year, will be entirely digital.
India business and strategy:
GCPL reaches 4.5m outlets in India with a direct
reach of over 1m outlets. In terms of rural markets, it reaches over 60,000
villages. The rural markets will be a key growth area, going forward, with the
company targeting an increase in the contribution of rural sales to total sales at
40% from the current 28% over the next 6-7 years. GCPL’s ambitious rural
growth drive will focus on three main brands, viz. Good Knight, Godrej Expert
and Godrej No. 1. It is adopting various strategies, such as split distribution and
roll out of handheld devices to sales representatives of rural distributors, which
has already been implemented among 1200 rural sub-stockists. The key trends
in India that will drive GCPL’s strategy ahead are: (a) Accelerating
premiumization, (b) Rise of small-town India, (c) Duality of rural growth, both
premium-led and penetration-led, and (d) Take off of online and mobile.
Krishnan Sambamoorthy
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5428
Vishal Punmiya
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4261
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Godrej Consumer
International business and strategy:
After the SoN acquisition, GCPL is the
largest hair care brand worldwide for women of African origin. Acquiring strong
local brands and working with the local team will continue to be an important
part of its overseas growth strategy. The management believes that unlike
global MNCs, GCPL respects local consumers in all the emerging markets and
tries to sell them superior products at affordable price points. In fact, the per
capita consumption of GCPL’s products in Mozambique, South Africa, Uganda
and Tanzania is higher as compared to India. The company has local or regional
manufacturing in most of the geographies in which it operates, thus easing
logistics and supply chain integration. Presently, the African business comprises
largely of hair extensions, though Household Insecticides will become a key
focus area, going forward. The addressable market for Household Insecticides in
Africa is worth USD3b. GCPL will leverage on its global expertise in Household
Insecticides with the initial African launch set to take place in Nigeria and
Tanzania. The current market share in the entire HPC segment in Africa is very
fragmented across geographies. Africa’s distribution infrastructure is 15-20
years behind that of India in terms of evolution. GCPL plans to apply all the
learning acquired from the robust distribution in India to Africa. In Asia, the
geographies that GCPL is looking to enter are Bangladesh and Myanmar,
followed by Iran and Pakistan, all potentially through organic means, while for
Vietnam it is likely to be through an acquisition.
Valuation & View:
At 32.5x FY17E and 28.2x FY18E EPS, the stock trades at a
discount to the sector. GCPL’s exposure to various geographies with attendant
currency risks and relatively lower RoE (mid-20s) justify the discount, in our
view. Maintain Neutral with a target price of INR1,325 (28x FY18E adjusted EPS).
4 May 2016
2

Godrej Consumer
Exhibit 1: Category-wise revenue break-up
Exhibit 2: Growing salience of international business
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 3: Top 8 brands constitute 75% of global business
Exhibit 4: International revenue break-up
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 5: Design driven innovation approach
Source: Company, MOSL
4 May 2016
3

Godrej Consumer
Financials and Valuations
Income Statement
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
Change (%)
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
Other Income
Extraordinary items
PBT
Tax
Tax Rate (%)
Min. Int. & Assoc. Share
Reported PAT
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
2011
36,430
78.5
6,460
17.7
499
5,961
519
676
331
6,449
1,302
20.2
0
5,147
4,661
37.3
2012
48,662
33.6
8,554
17.6
644
7,910
658
741
2,002
9,994
2,261
22.6
245
7,488
5,304
13.8
2013
64,163
31.9
9,824
15.3
770
9,054
775
678
1,289
10,246
1,792
17.5
493
7,961
6,506
22.7
2014
76,024
18.5
11,568
15.2
819
10,749
1,074
627
-6
10,297
2,104
20.4
596
7,597
7,439
14.3
2015
82,764
8.9
13,653
16.5
908
12,745
1,002
915
-172
12,487
2,723
21.8
693
9,071
9,079
22.0
2016
89,572
8.2
16,135
18.0
1,031
15,104
1,002
926
-249
14,779
3,191
21.6
395
11,194
11,442
26.0
2017E
110,014
22.8
20,777
18.9
1,018
19,759
1,435
907
0
19,230
4,539
23.6
700
13,992
13,992
22.3
(INR Million)
2018E
126,188
14.7
23,444
18.6
1,117
22,327
1,455
1,129
0
22,001
5,200
23.6
700
16,101
16,101
15.1
Balance Sheet
Y/E Mar
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Debt
Deferred Tax
Total Capital Employed
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Acc Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Current Assets
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Bank
Loans & Adv, Others
Curr Liabs & Provns
Curr. Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Total Assets
2011
324
16,928
17,252
20,032
86
37,369
19,148
3,775
15,373
154
0
13,774
4,394
3,840
2,269
3,271
7,335
7,246
89
6,439
37,370
2012
340
27,699
28,040
18,769
-5
47,686
20,403
4,940
15,464
376
635
22,048
7,839
4,725
5,764
3,719
12,290
11,862
428
9,757
47,686
2013
340
32,790
33,130
24,563
-140
59,649
21,575
5,699
15,876
1,409
1,212
29,230
10,471
7,288
7,476
3,995
17,162
16,736
426
12,068
59,649
2014
340
37,414
37,754
23,734
-203
63,536
22,511
6,821
15,689
1,671
1,363
28,751
10,821
7,321
7,048
3,561
19,462
19,075
387
9,289
63,536
2015
340
42,767
43,107
27,172
-312
71,587
22,890
7,821
15,069
2,246
1,857
31,464
10,717
8,046
8,942
3,759
19,489
18,756
734
11,974
71,587
2016
340
50,007
50,348
31,822
439
83,450
24,340
8,698
15,643
2,246
1,363
38,396
13,073
11,179
10,178
3,966
19,939
19,205
734
18,457
83,450
(INR Million)
2017E
340
59,301
59,641
40,422
593
102,197
29,090
9,716
19,375
2,246
1,363
48,094
16,276
12,056
15,255
4,507
19,621
18,887
734
28,474
102,198
2018E
340
70,704
71,044
40,422
765
114,473
33,840
10,833
23,008
2,246
1,363
57,196
18,669
12,100
21,302
5,125
20,081
19,348
734
37,115
114,472
4 May 2016
4

Godrej Consumer
Financials and Valuations
Ratios
Y/E Mar
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout (incl. Div. Tax.)
Valuation(x)
P/E
Cash P/E
Price / Book Value
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
Turnover Ratios (%)
Asset Turnover (x)
Debtors (No. of Days)
Leverage Ratios (%)
Net Debt/Equity (x)
1.0
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
2.3
38
3.1
35
3.7
41
4.4
35
4.8
35
5.0
46
5.1
40
5.0
35
34.8
25.2
23.0
18.6
20.3
16.9
19.8
17.5
21.4
18.9
23.9
19.5
24.9
21.3
23.9
20.6
61.1
55.1
11.4
6.2
40.7
0.4
50.1
45.5
10.2
5.7
34.6
0.5
39.7
36.4
8.9
5.3
29.5
0.7
32.5
30.3
7.4
4.4
23.1
0.9
28.2
26.4
6.2
3.8
20.2
0.9
14.4
15.9
53.3
5.0
35.0
15.6
17.5
85.0
1.7
11.2
19.1
21.4
103.5
5.0
26.2
21.9
24.3
117.5
5.3
24.0
26.7
29.3
131.4
7.1
26.7
33.6
36.7
150.4
9.7
28.9
41.1
44.1
179.8
11.8
28.7
47.3
50.6
215.4
11.8
24.9
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017E
2018E
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E Mar
Adjusted EBITDA
Non cash opr. exp (inc)
(Inc)/Dec in Wkg. Cap.
Tax Paid
Other operating activities
CF from Op. Activity
(Inc)/Dec in FA & CWIP
Free cash flows
(Pur)/Sale of Invt
Others
CF from Inv. Activity
Inc/(Dec) in Net Worth
Inc / (Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Divd Paid (incl Tax) & Others
CF from Fin. Activity
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
Add: Opening Balance
Closing Balance
2011
6,460
268
-3,654
-1,298
331
2,107
-15,144
-13,037
670
-12,285
-26,760
15
19,663
-519
4,711
23,870
-783
3,052
2,269
2012
8,554
619
176
-2,279
2,002
9,071
-1,478
7,593
0
-6,050
-7,528
17
-1,263
-658
3,856
1,951
3,495
2,269
5,764
2013
9,824
350
-598
-1,919
1,289
8,946
-2,205
6,741
0
-7,630
-9,835
0
5,794
-775
-2,418
2,602
1,712
5,764
7,476
2014
11,568
285
2,351
-2,167
-6
12,031
-1,197
10,833
-343
-6,440
-7,980
0
-829
-1,074
-2,576
-4,478
-428
7,476
7,048
2015
13,653
284
-791
-2,861
-172
10,113
-955
9,158
0
-4,916
-5,872
0
3,437
-1,002
-4,783
-2,347
1,894
7,048
8,942
2016
16,135
284
-5,247
-3,191
-249
7,732
-1,450
6,282
0
-5,300
-6,750
0
4,650
-1,002
-3,394
254
1,236
8,942
10,178
2017E
20,777
405
-4,939
-4,385
0
11,858
-4,750
7,108
0
-5,000
-9,750
0
8,600
-1,435
-4,197
2,968
5,077
10,178
15,255
(INR Million)
2018E
23,444
577
-2,594
-5,027
0
16,399
-4,750
11,649
0
0
-4,750
0
0
-1,455
-4,147
-5,602
6,047
15,255
21,302
4 May 2016
5

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Godrej Consumer
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GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS
No
No
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4 May 2016
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