25 May 2016
Q4FY16 Results Update | Sector: Automobiles
Bosch Ltd
Buy
BSE SENSEX
25,881
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm/ Vol m
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,935
BOS IN
31.4
688.1 / 10.2
26,701/15,753
10/19/0
568.9 / 0.0
28.8
CMP: INR21,914
TP: INR24,659(+13%)
Above Estimates; Lower cost drives EBITDA margins to decadal high
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
Net Sales
106.1
130.2
145.6
EBITDA
18.8
24.4
28.4
PAT
12.5
16.4
22.0
EPS (INR)
396.8
522.9
699.5
Gr. (%)
-8.2
31.8
33.8
BV/Sh (INR) 2,639.8 3,031.9 3,556.6
RoE (%)
15.9
18.4
21.2
RoCE (%)
23.6
26.3
28.3
P/E (x)
55.2
41.9
31.3
P/BV (x)
8.3
7.2
6.2
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
In-line revenue driven by strong growth in auto:
Bosch Ltd.’s (BOS) net sales
for 4QFY16 at INR27.1b were in line with our estimate of INR27.2b and were up
14% YoY (-1% QoQ), driven by a growth of ~14.7% YoY in auto and ~9.6% YoY in
non-auto. Domestic revenue grew by ~15.5% YoY, but exports declined by
~9.1% YoY due to a decline of 17.4% YoY in auto exports.
Lower overall costs drive highest margin in decade:
BOS’ EBITDA margin
surged higher by ~880bp QoQ (+190bp YoY) to ~21.5% (vs. our estimate of
~17.8%), driven by lower than estimated overall costs. Raw material costs were
down ~40bp QoQ, staff cost declined by ~100bp QoQ and other expenses fell
by 740bp QoQ. Adjusted PAT stood at ~INR3.8b (vs. our estimate of ~INR3.1b),
marking a growth of ~31% YoY (+70% QoQ).
Earnings call highlights:
a) BOS’ Gasoline and Diesel business grew in the
double-digits. A decline in the share of diesel PV was more than offset by a
robust growth in the CV and tractor segments b) In the non-auto business,
security systems witnessed a double-digit growth, while revenue from starters
& generators remained flat. The growth in Thermo technology was primarily
due to one-time export orders c) Management provided a capex guidance of
INR7.7b for FY17 towards a new office building in Bangalore and capacity
expansion at the Nashik and Bidadi plants d) The implementation of BS VI for 2
wheelers presents a long-term opportunity for BOS e) The localization for BSIV
CRDi is relatively higher.
Demerger of Starter Motor and Generator business expected by Aug-16:
BOS
has received approval from the board and shareholders for selling off its SMG
division for INR4.86b to a 100% subsidiary of the parent. The SMG division
recorded revenue of ~INR8.9b and PBT of ~INR262m in FY16, implying a deal
valuation of ~0.55x FY16 sales (as compared to BOS’ EV/Sales of ~5x CY14).
Valuation and view:
We are largely maintaining our EPS estimates for FY17/18,
despite factoring in the divestment of SMG from FY18 onwards. The stock
trades at 41.9x/31.3x FY17E/18E EPS. Maintain
Buy
with a target price of
INR24,659 (~35x FY18E).
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Aditya Vora
(Aditya.Vora@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3078 4701