Amara Raja Batteries
BSE SENSEX
25,881
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INR m
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
7,935
AMRJ IN
170.8
145.3 / 2.2
1,132/773
-8/-2/3
275.3 / 0.3
47.9
25 May 2016
4QFY16 Results Update | Sector: Automobiles
CMP: INR851
TP: INR975(+15%)
Buy
Below est; Sales growth moderates, higher RM and other expenses leads
to 8 quarter low EBITDA margins; Downgrade EPS
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
Net Sales
46.9
54.5
63.7
EBITDA
8.2
9.7
11.4
PAT
4.9
6.1
7.4
EPS (INR)
28.7
35.7
43.3
Gr. (%)
17.7
24.6
21.4
BV/Sh (INR)
123.0 152.8 189.1
RoE (%)
25.8
25.9
25.4
RoCE (%)
24.2
24.5
24.3
P/E (x)
29.7
23.8
19.6
P/BV (x)
6.9
5.6
4.5
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Net sales grew by 10% YoY (-4.5% QoQ) to INR11.7b (in line with our est.), with
the YoY growth being driven by a broad-based performance across segments.
EBITDA margin declined by 30bp YoY (-240bp QoQ) to 16.3%, translating into
EBITDA growth of ~7.6% YoY (-17% QoQ).
Raw material costs increased by 110bp QoQ (-200bp YoY) to 62.7%, as lead
costs hardened on a QoQ basis, but declined by ~12% YoY (spot prices with a
lag of one quarter). Other expenses were also higher by ~100bp QoQ (+180bp
YoY), which was most likely due to overheads incurred for recently
commissioned capacities and higher marketing spend.
Adjusted PAT grew by 6.2% YoY to INR~1.1b (vs. our estimate of ~INR1.3b).
At the end of 4QFY16, working capital rose by ~5 days, driven by an increase of
11 days in inventory to 47 days.
Free
cash flow came in at a negative ~INR0.5b due to higher capex of ~INR5.5b,
resulting in net cash declining to ~INR939m (as against ~INR1.64b in FY15).
Capacity expansion plan for 2W batteries:
The company is expanding its 2W
battery capacity in four phases, staggered over a period of four years, from the
current 11m units per annum to 25m units per annum, with the first phase
comprising of three lines adding a capacity of 4m units per annum. The
company had earlier also announced expansion of its 4W battery capacity from
8.25m units per annum to 11m units per annum.
Takeaways from press release:
a) The aftermarket segment continued to
witness high growth, driven by new products, network expansion and
marketing support b) The auto OEM business also recorded growth due to
supply to new platforms and recovery in PV volume c) Auto exports growth was
driven by higher penetration in focused markets d) The auto segment’s market
share improved across segments e) The company has strengthened its core
management team, with a focus on making its management systems and
processes more robust.
Valuation and view:
We have lowered our EPS estimate for by 7-8% in order to
factor in the weaker sales growth and higher other expenses. The stock trades at
23.8x/19.6x FY17/18 EPS. Maintain
Buy
with a TP of ~INR975 (~22.5x FY18E EPS).
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Aditya Vora
(Aditya.Vora@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3078 4701