United Spirits
BSE SENSEX
26,714
S&P CNX
8,180
6 June 2016
Update
| Sector:
Consumer
CMP: INR2,474
TP: INR3,200(+29%)
Buy
Management maintains mid teen margin guidance
We attended the analyst meet of United Spirits. Following are the key takeaways from
the meet:
Continuing with the identified strategic priorities: a) Power brands b) Strengthen
route to consumer c) Drive out costs d) Transform USL and Industry reputation e)
Building a future ready organization.
Demographic fundamentals strong; Long term opportunity intact.
Strong premiumization trend continues.
Aspiration of mid-teens EBITDA margin in medium term remains.
Business is now being run in a very transparent and compliant manner.
Not much from a near term catalyst perspective apart from the price hike received in
its largest state – Karnataka – 25% of volumes. Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, two
other large markets could also grant price hikes in the next few months.
FY17 should see enhanced momentum both from brands which have been
relaunched in FY16 viz Royal Challenge, McDowell No 1 and Signature as well as the
Diageo portfolio.
While we are strong believers in the long term potential we believe a trend of
quarterly improvements in operating metrics (volumes/margins/ debt/working
capital), albeit small, is necessary for premium valuations to sustain. Speculation
around potential open offer may provide cushion to stock price. Maintain BUY and
DCF based TP of INR3,200.
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
UNSP IN
145.3
3,838/2,232
-10/-26/-31
359.5
5.2
841
41.5
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E
Net Sales
92.4
104.0
EBITDA
9.2
11.9
PAT
3.2
6.0
EPS (INR)
21.7
41.0
Gr. (%)
LP
88.9
BV/Sh .INR
123.1
164.1
RoE (%)
25.8
28.6
RoCE (%)
10.7
13.8
P/E (x)
114.0
60.5
P/BV (x)
20.1
15.1
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
2018E
117.8
15.7
8.9
61.5
49.9
222.7
27.6
17.6
40.4
11.2
Mar-16 Dec-15 Mar-15
58.5
5.3
23.8
12.4
58.8
4.6
24.1
12.5
58.9
4.2
24.5
12.4
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
United Spirits
Sensex - Rebased
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
UNSP’s ambition and strategy: To create one of the best performing most trusted
and respected consumer products companies in India. UNSP continues with its
five point strategy:
1) Strengthen and accelerate core brands to win across each of the 3 Indias
Continue to invest behind brands. Renovate and rejuvenate existing
brands. Innovate and introduce new to market brands.
Renovated three brands – Royal Challenge, McDowell’s No.1 (Core variant
growing in double digits, already reached 88% of market) and Signature.
Believe USL was underinvesting in brands earlier.
2) Strengthen Route to consumer
Leverage outlet as a media to build brand imagery.
Create a sell-out culture and leverage stores in a media dark market [20%
of India’s alcobev outlets made into “Perfect Stores”] – QDVP3 focus
[Quality, Distribution, Visibility, Price, Promotion, Persuasion].
De-focused on lower end – changed the mindset of sales force towards
value vs. volume earlier.
3) Drive out costs
Mitigate
pricing
shortfall
and
improve
margins
through
productivity. Productivity program launched in FY15. While management
did not mention quantum they did state that FY16 gains were higher than
FY15 and FY17 gains would be higher than FY16.
Big wins in cost saving were in Glass light weighting, procurement
efficiency and network optimization.
Gautam Duggad
(Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5404
Krishnan Sambamoorthy
(Krishnan.sambamoorthy@motilaloswal.com); /
Vishal Punmiya
(Vishal.Punmiya@motilaloswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.