Shree Cement
BSE SENSEX
26,763
S&P CNX
8,204
10 June 2016
Update
| Sector:
Cement
CMP: INR13,492
TP: INR15,000 (+11%)
Unique “Growth-RoIC” proposition
Rich valuations? Partly explained, partly fathomable
Buy
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)/ (USD b)
Avg Val ( INR m)
Free float (%)
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E MARCH
2016
SRCM IN
34.8
14178 / 9350
1/19/23
467.8/7.0
197
35.2
1. Sustainable low cost growth together with B/S strength:
SRCM has
demonstrated prowess of calibrated and low cost expansion over previous
decade, leading to (a) coexistence of balance sheet strength and (b) optimum
capacity utilizations, even during the capex intensive phase. The company is
entering next growth phase over FY17-20 with addition of 14m tons (50%
expansion) comprising 6m tons in East and 4m tons each in North & South.
Ahead of the curve investment in critical resources like land and limestone
should enable SRCM sustaining efficient and low cost growth mechanism.
2. Preparedness for scalability and sustainability:
Advantage of low cost
expansion should continue to pay off as its planned expansion over FY17-20
would be at INR4,000-4,500/ton versus the industry normal of INR8,000/ton.
It requires INR60b-65b of capex versus OCF generation of INR140b+ over
FY17-20, keeping financial strength intact for self-sustaining long-term
growth. With rising cost of garnering critical resource (limestone auction),
SRCM’s leadership in opex and capex aids insurmountable edge.
3. Cost leader; a pioneer in many aspects:
Cost advantage in (a) Raw material
(efficient sourcing and economies of scale), (b) Energy (pioneering effort in
pet coke, WHRS, best-in-class operating efficiencies), and (c) Freight (strategic
spilt grinding, smart bidding process, etc) renders industry leading
profitability. Ind-AS accounting would mark-up SRCM’s EBITDA, which is
understated currently, as it used to capture government subsidies of INR120-
150/ton in capital reserve unlike peers that factor this in the P&L statement.
4. “Earn at home before spending in new market”:
SRCM’s low-risk
diversification philosophy has been the genesis of its success in new market.
Early investments in the right support system (brand, split grinding unit,
critical resources, cost structure) helped replicating the efficiency and
sustainability of the home market in new markets. Interestingly, SRCM enjoys
lower direct cost in the East than the North (home market).
5. Coexistence of high growth and RoIC is inimitable:
Over medium-term, the
Cement industry, in our views, would see a trade-off between growth and
capital efficiency due to sharp rise in cost of expansion. Previous peak RoIC
would be tough to replicate (Refer
our note….).
SRCM’s ability to (a) invest at
lesser capex, and (b) sell faster and profitably (edge on price competitiveness
due to lowest opex) would help keep its RoIC inimitable (60-70% in FY18).
Rich valuations? Partly explained, partly fathomable:
SRCM’s premium
valuation is partly explained by industry leading growth and RoIC. Rest is
attributable to its strong preparedness for low cost growth which should
significantly reduce its implied asset valuation (EV/ton) at the end of ongoing
expansion phase (by FY19-20). SoTP-based 3-year TP implies 18-20% return
CAGR. For 50%+ RoIC of SRCM (~4x of cost of capital), we are comfortable
assigning EV/ton of USD225/260 for FY18/20E (1.8-2x replacement cost).
2018E
2017E
Sales
EBITDA
NP
Adj EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/Ton (USD)
72.9
16.7
5.9
168.0
26.1
1,774
10.2
10.6
27.0
253.9
82.5
21.0
10.2
293.9
75.0
2,027
15.5
15.0
20.7
228.5
102.1
31.7
17.5
503.8
71.4
2,485
22.3
21.5
13.1
203.7
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
Mar-16 Dec-15 Mar-15
75.0
3.0
16.7
5.3
75.0
3.3
16.1
5.6
75.0
1.0
18.9
5.1
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Shree Cement
Sensex - Rebased
15,400
13,800
12,200
10,600
9,000
Sandipan Pal
(Sandipan.Pal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Aashumi Mehta
(Aashumi.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3010 2397
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.