Dr Reddy’ s Labs
BSE SENSEX
26,397
S&P CNX
8,111
13 June 2016
Update | Sector: Healthcare
CMP: INR3,086 TP: INR3,200 (+4%)
Announces acquisition of ANDA portfolio from Teva
Neutral
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, (INR m)
Free float (%)
DRRD IN
170.5
526.3 / 7.8
4,383/2,750
2/-1/-7
1,788
74.4
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
Net Sales
154.7 172.2
198.3
EBITDA
39.1 40.5
49.2
PAT
22.6 25.2
30.2
EPS (INR)
132.3 147.8
177.5
Gr. (%)
1.7 11.7
20.1
BV/Sh (INR)
752.3 880.3 1,031.9
RoE (%)
18.8 18.1
18.6
RoCE (%)
13.9 14.2
15.3
P/E (x)
23.3 20.9
17.4
P/BV (x)
4.1
3.5
3.0
Shareholding pattern (%)
As on
Mar-16
Promoter
25.6
DII
FII
Others
6.0
36.0
32.4
Dec-15 Mar-15
25.6
25.5
5.7
37.8
30.9
5.4
55.8
13.3
Note: FII includes depository receipts
Dr. Reddy's announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement with
Teva to acquire a portfolio of 8 ANDAs in the US for USD350m. Teva is divesting
the portfolio as a pre-condition to close the Allergan deal (due to overlap). The
acquisition of these ANDAs is contingent upon the closing of the Teva/Allergan
deal and an approval by the US FTC.
Entering new categories:
The acquired products (1 approved and 7 pending
ANDAs), including sublingual film (Suboxane, market size of > USD1b), vaginal
ring (NuvaRing, market size of > USD500m), topicals and inhalation repsules,
face limited competition. Combined branded sales of these products stand at
USD350m. We believe DRRD would have been looking for annual sales of
>USD150m for at least five years to justify the cost they have paid. According
to management, 4 of these 8 ANDAs are expected to commercialize by FY18,
while the remaining 4 would come to the market over the following two years.
Focus on limited competition products more than ever:
This is in line with
DRRD's endeavor to enhance its focus toward proprietary/complex generic
products. However, USD44m/ANDA (USD350m for 8 ANDAs) is the company's
highest-ever investment on any set of generic products up till now. Apart from
this, the company would continue investing on its existing pipeline of generic
and proprietary products (~12% of sales or ~USD300m in FY17 as R&D
expense).
Leveraging on strong balance sheet:
DRRD is acquiring the portfolio on a cash-
free, debt-free basis, and plans to fund it via internal accruals and debt. At end-
FY16, DRRD had net cash of USD97m on its books. The company generated
~USD400m of FCF in FY16.
Early resolution of regulatory issues key for turnaround:
We believe the speed
at which DRRD is able to resolve regulatory issues with the FDA holds the key
(FY18, in our view). Although long-term fundamentals remain intact, the stock
should trade range-bound in the near term due to competition in key products
and regulatory concerns. We maintain our Neutral rating with a TP of INR3,200
@ 18x FY18E PER.
Exhibit 1:
Composition
of Revenues
1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16
Revenue Mix (%)
USA
India
Europe
LatAm
RoW
CRAMs
Innovative product
38.2
12.3
5.5
15.8
5.2
20.6
2.4
39.4
12.5
5.2
16.4
5.4
19.1
1.9
45.9
11.1
5.3
15.0
5.9
14.3
2.5
43.0
11.8
5.1
13.0
5.6
19.1
2.4
46.8
11.4
4.1
13.8
6.3
15.7
1.8
39.8
13.4
4.0
13.4
9.9
17.8
1.7
42.8
11.3
4.4
12.4
10.6
15.9
2.6
44.3
12.3
6.0
8.5
9.0
19.2
0.8
49.3
12.7
5.1
8.2
7.2
14.9
2.7
46.5
13.7
5.3
9.8
6.8
14.8
3.0
48.9
14.6
4.9
9.2
7.0
12.8
2.6
50.4
14.0
4.7
6.1
6.7
15.3
2.7
Kumar Saurabh
(Kumar.Saurabh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5584
Amey Chalke
(Amey.Chalke@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5423
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.