Oil & Gas | 1 July 2016
Oil & Gas
PDS kerosene price hiked after five years
A baby step, but directionally positive for upstream and OMCs
Event: The Indian government after five years has raised PDS (public
distribution system) kerosene price by INR0.25/liter to ~INR15.3/liter.
Previously, it had increased kerosene prices on June 25, 2011 (INR2/liter) and
June 26, 2010 (~INR3/liter).
Post diesel deregulation, the government implemented direct cash transfer in
LPG. We believe it can also do so in PDS kerosene. All these steps are positive
for upstream firms and OMCs. We maintain our Buy rating on ONGC/OINL as
well as all the three OMCs, with HPCL/IOCL as our top picks.
Currently only auto fuels de-regulated; cooking fuels reforms underway
Govt. has in the past deregulated petrol (on June 25. 2010) and diesel (on Oct
19, 2014) prices to reduce fiscal subsidies and their burden on upstream
companies and OMCs.
Post auto fuel deregulation, only subsidized LPG and PDS (public distribution
system) Kerosene are regulated and subsidized by the govt. and upstream
companies.
Fiscal subsidies for petroleum sector accounted for 0.62%/0.25% of GDP in
FY15/FY16 and we believe govt. is aiming to reduce this burden even further.
Government has already moved LPG to direct cash transfer scheme and is trying
to shift kerosene too (some pilot projects already run for kerosene).
Govt/upstream share LPG/kero subsidy; negligible for upstream currently
The government subsidizes up to INR12/liter in PDS kerosene and
~INR200/cylinder in LPG, and remaining under-recoveries are to be borne by
upstream companies.
According to the recent pricing data, kerosene under-recoveries stood at
INR13.1/liter and LPG under-recoveries at ~INR116/cylinder, implying a burden
of INR1.1/liter in kerosene sales for upstream companies.
Our view
While the quantum of the price increase in PDS kerosene is marginal, we view
this as a directionally positive step, as it is indicative of the government’s desire
to reduce kerosene subsidy.
Further, kerosene demand is already declining, led by rising electrification and a
shift to LPG (kerosene demand down at a 5% CAGR over the past five years).
With kerosene being used as a cooking fuel by masses and for lighting in rural
areas, the government has usually shied away from increasing prices of this
sensitive fuel. Thus, we believe this could be a test hike by the government to
gauge public/market reaction.
Harshad Borawake
(HarshadBorawake@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5432
Rajat Agarwal
(Rajat.Agarwal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5558
1 July 2016
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
1
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Exhibit 1: Price build-up of PDS Kerosene
Source: PPAC, MOSL
Exhibit 2: PDS kerosene prices have been increased only by INR5/ltr by the govt. since July 2009
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Brent (USD/bbl) - RHS
Gasoline price (INR/ltr)
Diesel price (INR/ltr)
PDS Kero price (INR/ltr)
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Source: Bloomberg, PPAC, OMCs, MOSL
1 July 2016
2

Exhibit 3: PDS kerosene consumption has declined at 3% CAGR in the last decade and at5% CAGR in the lastfive years
India product demand change (% chg YoY)
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
2%
0%
-1%
-1%
0%
-4%
-8%
FY12
-4%
-9%
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
Source: PPAC, MOSL
-1%
LPG
SKO
MS
HSD
-4%
Exhibit 4: Shifting preference for LPG as a cooking fuel has
driven yearly consumption growth…
In MMT
15.0%
LPG
YoY (%)
18.0
19.6
Exhibit 5: …and
consumption
MMT
21.5%
13.7%
a
simultaneous
Jet Fuel
decline
YoY (%)
in
Kerosene
10.4 12.0
12.2
1.6%
13.2
15.6 16.3
14.3 15.4
9.8% 9.0%
10.3%
8.5%
3.9%
-2.2%
4.0
4.6
4.5
4.6
5.1
5.5
4.4%
-4.8%
5.3
5.5
1.3%
11.5%
8.6% 8.2%
7.2%
4.9%
1.6%
4.7%
5.6
6.2
Source: PPAC, MOSL
Source: PPAC, MOSL
1 July 2016
3

Exhibit 6: Top 10 states account for 80% of the total kerosene allocation (in million litres) in India
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal
Bihar
Gujarat
Maharashtra
Madhya Pradesh
Karnataka
Rajasthan
Orissa
Tamil Nadu
Assam
Andhra Pradesh
Jharkhand
Telengana
Chhattisgarh
Kerala
Haryana
Punjab
J&K
Tripura
Uttarakhand
Meghalaya
Himachal Pradesh
Manipur
Nagaland
Arunachal Pradesh
Mizoram
A&N Islands
Sikkim
Goa
Puducherry
Chandigarh
D&Nagar Haveli
Lakshadweep
Daman & Diu
Delhi
-
400
800
1,200
1,600
Source: PPAC, MOSL
1 July 2016
4

Exhibit 7: Brief history of auto fuel and cooking fuel reforms
Era
Period
Till 1939
Pricing mechanism
Market determined
Details
Burmah - Shell, London office computed/advised on prices.
Retail selling price in India was worked out after adding railway freight, local
taxes etc.
Burmah - Shell, Stanvac, Caltex and BOC operated a price pool for Kerosene and
Petrol.
For HSD, daily prices were fixed by individual oil companies.
Under VSA agreement, a cost plus formula with import parity price linked to
‘Abadan’ Iran plus freight to India, insurance, ocean loss, import duty and other
levies/charges)
Burmah - Shell, maintained VSA for each product. Collections at provisional basic
selling price were set off against actual costs. Surplus/deficit were either
ploughed back/recouped from by adjusting selling price.
1939-1948
Market determined
Till 1974
Market
Determined
1958-1961
Ad-hoc arrangement
Pricing
(MNC's were 1961-1965
Oil
Price
Enquiry
K.R. Damle committee
found out that sales to other countries were at a
actively doing
Committee (OPEC)
significant discount, hence proposed the linkage of Prices to lowest prices at
business in India
Abadan, Iran less discounts.
1966-1970
Working Group on Oil
Talukdar committee
recommended no major change, but asked for higher
Prices (WGOP) Formula discount on FOB basis.
Effective September 1967, prices were linked to posted prices at ‘Bandar
Mahshahr’ in Iran.
1970-1975
Oil Prices Committee
Shantilal Shah committee
concluded that Import parity pricing was not correct,
(OPC)
but due to lack of cost data and govt. commitment to oil companies it is adopting
import
parity
pricing.
Also, inland refineries were also made pricing points to compensate from
additional freight cost
1975-1998
After 1973 Oil Crisis,
OPC under K. S. Krishnaswamy recommended shift from import parity to “cost
govt. formed Oil Prices
plus basis” (APM).
Committee (OPC) and
In 1984, OCRC, under J. S. Iyer changed compensation basis from a flat rate on
later in 1984 Oil Cost CE to 12% post tax RONW and weighted cost of borrowings; Applicable till March
APM Era: 1975-
Review
Committee 31, 1998.
1998
(OCRC)
(A cost-plus
a) Upstream: Crude FOB = Normative opex + 15% post-tax RoCE + levies like
pricing system for
royalty and cess;
producers,
b) Refining: Ex-refinery price = Cost of crude + normative opex + 12% post-tax
together with
RONW;
cross-
c) Price to Consumers = Marketing Margin (MM) + Ex. refinery price +
subsidization
Surcharges + other duties/taxes; MM = Normative opex, and a 12% post-tax
scheme for end-
RONW.
users )
Oil Pool Accounts maintained by Oil Co-ordination Committee (OCC): Crude Oil
Price Equalisation (COPE) Account, Cost and Freight (C&F) Account, Product Price
Adjustment (PPA) Account
Lubricants decontrolled in 1993
1998-2006
Import Parity Pricing
In November 1997, government notified phased dismantling of APM with full
dismantling by April 2002.
From April 1, 1998, moved to adjusted import parity pricing for MS, HSD, SKO,
ATF and LPG
De-regulated Naphtha, FO/LSHS, and Bitumen from April 1998 and ATF from April
Post APM Era
2001.
In Oct 2003, MOP&NG approved a sharing of OMCs losses on PDS kero/dom.
LPG by upstream companies.
2006
Trade Parity Pricing
Rangarajan committee recommendation implemented from June 2006 to move
to trade parity pricing (with weight of 80 % Import Parity Pricing and 20 % Export
Parity Pricing)
2010-till
Petrol deregulated in June 2010
and hiked kerosene price by INR3/ltr
date
Kerosene price hiked by INR2/ltr in June 2011
In June 2013, allowed INR0.5/ltr monthly price hikes in diesel, set to be
deregulated in next few months. Bulk consumers to pay market linked price
On-going reforms
Diesel deregulated in October 2014
Direct benefit transfer (DBT) in LPG rolled out in 54 districts in Nov 2014 and in
remaining districts in Jan 2015
Plans announced to roll out DBT in Kerosene in selected districts in April 2016
Source: MoPNG, MOSL
1 July 2016
5
1948-1958
Value Stock Accounting
(VSA): First regulation
attempt - Fore-runner
to oil pool mechanism

Exhibit 8: Gross under recoveries for OMCs and upstream companies have declined following auto fuels deregulation
Gross under recoveries
(in INR Billion)
Petrol
Diesel
Kerosene
LPG
Total
Diesel
de-regulated
in Oct-14
Gasoline
de-regulated
in June-10
Diesel reform
begun in Jan-13
1,610
1,385
1,399
LPG shifted
to DBTL
723
276
219
FY17E
117
102
0
219
389
1,033
773
461
780
FY08
LPG
Kerosene
Diesel
Petrol
Total
156
191
353
73
773
FY09
176
282
523
52
1,033
FY10
143
174
93
52
461
FY11
205
200
348
27
780
FY12
284
278
819
0
1,385
FY13
399
296
915
0
1,610
FY14
465
306
628
0
1,399
FY15
366
248
109
0
723
FY16
161
115
0
0
276
FY18E
246
143
0
389
Source: PPAC, MOSL
Exhibit 9: Sensitivity analysis for Kerosene: Every USD5/bbl increase in Brent increases Kerosene under-recoveries by INR2/ltr
Kerosene under/(over) recoveries (INRb)
Brent Price (USD/bbl)
102
40
45
50
55
60
62.0
74
80
92
105
118
64.0
76
84
99
113
128
66.0
78
89
106
122
138
68.0
80
95
112
130
148
70.0
82
100
119
139
158
72.0
84
105
126
147
168
74.0
88
111
133
156
178
65
131
143
154
166
177
189
201
70
144
157
170
184
197
210
223
Kerosene under/(over) recoveries(INR/ltr)
Brent Price (USD/bbl)
12
40
45
50
55
60
62.0
7
9
11
13
15
64.0
8
10
12
14
16
66.0
9
11
13
15
17
68.0
9
11
14
16
18
70.0
10
12
15
17
19
72.0
11
13
15
18
20
74.0
11
14
16
19
21
65
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
70
19
20
21
23
24
25
26
Source: MOSL
Exhibit 10: Sensitivity analysis for LPG: Every USD5/bbl increase in Brent increases LPG under-recoveries by INR53/cylinder
LPG under/(over) recoveries (INRb)
Brent Price (USD/bbl)
117
40
45
50
55
60
62.0
35
60
92
144
198
64.0
35
67
108
167
225
66.0
41
75
125
189
252
68.0
47
83
143
211
280
70.0
54
91
160
234
307
72.0
61
100
178
256
334
74.0
67
112
195
278
361
65
252
284
316
348
380
412
444
70
305
342
379
416
453
490
527
LPG under/(over) recoveries(INR/Cyl)
Brent Price (USD/bbl)
114
40
45
50
55
60
62.0
0
40
93
145
198
64.0
0
53
107
161
215
66.0
9
65
121
177
233
68.0
20
78
135
193
251
70.0
31
90
150
209
268
72.0
42
103
164
225
286
74.0
53
116
178
241
304
65
250
270
289
308
328
347
366
70
303
324
345
366
387
408
429
Source: MOSL
1 July 2016
6

Exhibit 11: Valuation table (Mcap in USDb, CMP and TP in INR)
M Cap CMP TP Var v/s Reco
TP (%)
Upstream
ONGC
OINL
OMCs
IOC
BPCL*
HPCL
17
473 624
32
11
33
Buy 40.6 60.8 74.1 11.7 7.8
Buy 110.4 110.6 122.3 8.9
Buy 113.9 118.1 127.7
9
8.8
8.6
6.4
8
8
7.3
7.2
6.3
5.7
6.9
5.7
4.7
6
5.4
13.5 18.1 19.5
31.8 26.5 24.8
22.4 20.2 19.2
3.8
3.1
3.5
11.7 1,092 1,215
5.1 1,021 1,359
28.5
3.2
224 270
364 422
20
16
Buy 20.4 17.3 23.8
Buy 38.8 37.8 44.1
11
9.4
12.9
9.6
9.4
8.3
3.9
7.3
4.3
8.2
3.6
6.9
9.5
7.8
10.1
10.8
2.2
4.1
10.6 9.8
EPS
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY16 FY17E FY18E
RoE (%)
FY16 FY17E FY18E
Dvd
Yld %
FY16 FY17E FY18E FY16 FY17E FY18E
Source: Company, MOSL
1 July 2016
7

OIL & GAS GALLERY
COMPANIES
SECTOR UPDATES
SECTOR UPDATES

NOTES
1 July 2016
9

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1 July 2016
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Phone: +91 22 3982 5500 E-mail: reports@motilaloswal.com
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd
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