19 July 2016
Results Update | Sector: Technology
Wipro
BSE SENSEX
27,788
S&P CNX
8,529
CMP: INR549
TP: INR570 (+4%)
Neutral
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Near term performance may remain under pressure…
… Amid multi-pronged investments in growth and some restructuring
2Q guidance suggests prolonged recovery:
With revenue growth of 2% QoQ CC, WPRO
met its guidance for 1QFY17. However, the 0-1% QoQ CC guidance for 2Q ruled out
potential of bridging growth gap to peers in the foreseeable future. Continued drag in
the Energy vertical, sluggishness in top accounts and restructuring in the India &
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
WPRO IN
2,462.7
1,352 / 20.3
613 / 509
-5/-14/-1
822
26.7
Middle East business may continue to weigh on overall revenue growth.
Margins under pressure…:
IT Services EBIT margin of 17.8% declined by 190bp QoQ
(marginally below our estimate of 18.1%). Overall EBIT margin was at 16.1%, below our
estimate of 16.7%, led by the fourth consecutive quarter of losses in the Product
business. PAT was INR20.5b, -8.2% QoQ, against our estimate of INR20.7b.
…As investments take priority:
WPRO has been making investments in building
capabilities, people and in strategic accounts, leading to headwinds that are more
pronounced than earlier anticipated. While it intends to make up for the lost margins
through automation and productivity gains, but only over the medium-term. Rate
dilutions and consequent margin pressure are expected to weigh upon margins in the
near-term, in addition to the full impact of wage hikes in 2Q.
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
Sales
EBITDA
PAT
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
512.4
108.1
88.9
36.1
2.9
189.7
20.3
16.7
15.2
11.4
558.8 622.9
112.9 131.6
85.9 98.4
34.9 40.6
-3.5 16.4
200.0 228.3
17.9 18.9
15.0 16.9
15.7 13.5
10.7
8.8
Muted near-term performance will weigh on valuations:
Portfolio issues and lack of
growth in top clients had been leading to subpar organic growth for WPRO. Although
Digital has been picking up for the company, restructuring of the India & Middle East
business will affect near-term growth, and mining efforts too may take some time
before yielding results. Even the margins will be soft till growth contributes, especially
given the elevation of investments. We now expect USD revenue CAGR of 7.3% over
FY16-18 and earnings CAGR of 6.0%. Our target price of INR570 discounts FY18E
earnings by 14x. Maintain Neutral.
(INR Million)
Est.
Var.
1QFY17 (% / bp)
1,926
0.2
2.4
24bp
140,590
-3.3
3.1
-337bp
14.9
-376bp
29.2
-7bp
12.5
58bp
19.9
-36bp
18.5
16.7
-66bp
3,559
36.2
22.7
20bp
20,738
-1.1
-7.2
-99bp
-5.2
-101bp
8.4
174,852
-0.6
77.5
220bp
44.0
158bp
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance (IFRS)
Y/E March
Revenue (USD m)
QoQ (%)
Revenue (INR m)
QoQ (%)
YoY (%)
GPM (%)
SGA (%)
EBITDA Margin (%)
IT Serv. EBIT (%)
EBIT Margin (%)
Other income
ETR (%)
PAT
QoQ (%)
YoY (%)
EPS (INR)
Headcount
Util excl. trainees (%)
Attrition (%)
Offshore rev. (%)
Rev Guidance (USDm)
Fixed Price (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
1Q
1,794
1.1
122,376
0.8
9.9
30.7
12.2
21.3
21.0
18.5
5,286
21.2
21,877
-3.8
4.0
8.9
161,789
81.9
16.4
45.4
1857
54.5
FY16
2Q
3Q
1,832
1,838
2.1
0.3
125,135 128,605
2.3
2.8
7.1
7.2
31.4
29.8
12.4
12.0
21.8
20.8
20.7
20.2
19.0
17.9
5,138
5,715
22.4
21.8
22,354
22,341
2.2
-0.1
7.2
1.9
9.1
9.1
168,396 170,664
82.3
78.0
16.4
16.3
46.1
46.2
1878
1912
53.4
55.9
4Q
1,882
2.4
136,324
6.0
12.3
29.7
12.3
20.6
20.1
17.4
5,426
22.7
22,350
0.0
-1.8
9.1
172,912
77.5
16.1
45.8
1939
56.9
1Q
1,931
2.6
135,992
-0.2
11.1
29.1
13.0
19.5
17.8
16.1
4,848
22.9
20,518
-8.2
-6.2
8.3
173,863
79.7
45.6
FY17
2QE
3QE
1,928
1,958
-0.2
1.5
138,109 140,273
1.6
1.6
10.4
9.1
28.8
28.9
12.2
11.9
20.0
20.4
17.5
18.0
16.6
17.0
5,422
3,733
22.9
22.9
21,793
21,230
6.2
-2.6
-2.5
-5.0
9.0
8.8
173,228 177,113
79.7
79.7
46.1
45.8
FY16
4QE
2,009
2.6
144,390
2.9
5.9
29.2
11.8
20.8
18.5
17.5
3,849
22.9
22,332
5.2
-0.1
9.2
181,998
79.7
45.6
7,346
3.7
512,440
9.1
30.4
12.2
21.1
20.5
18.2
21,565
22.1
88,922
2.7
36.1
172,912
74.9
45.9
FY17E
7,825
6.5
558,764
9.0
29.0
12.2
20.2
17.9
16.8
17,852
22.9
85,872
-3.4
34.9
181,998
76.4
45.8
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1530
Sagar Lele
(Sagar.Lele@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1531