KPIT Technologies
BSE SENSEX
27,916
S&P CNX
8,566
20 July 2016
1QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Technology
CMP: INR133
TP: INR160(+20%)
Neutral
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Multiple pressure points impact revenue growth…
…and consequently profitability
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
KPIT IN
197.5
26.6 / 0.4
197 / 98
-33/-21/21
153
83.2
2018E
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2016 2017E
Y/E Mar
32.2
33.4
Net Sales
4.4
4.5
EBITDA
3.0
2.7
NP
14.1
13.7
EPS (INR)
19.0
-2.4
EPS Gr. (%)
69.0
83.4
BV/Sh. (INR)
21.0
18.0
RoE (%)
24.3
21.4
RoCE (%)
9.3
9.5
Payout (%)
1.9
1.6
Div. Yield
37.4
5.2
3.2
16.0
16.4
99.4
17.5
21.7
8.2
1.3
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
Revenue decline led by multiple factors:
KPIT’s 1QFY17 revenue of USD120m
(-3.5% QoQ) came in line with our estimate, post management’s guidance of a
weak quarter. The revenue decline was led by aggravated weakness at its top
client (-12% QoQ), pressure in Product Engineering and Energy verticals, and
ERP implementation. The revenue decline, along with wage hikes and
investments, resulted in a margin decline of 550bp QoQ to 10.7%.
Growth recovery not imminent:
Revenue growth recovery in FY17 appears
difficult, especially with the Product Engineering business under pressure.
Moreover, volatility in SAP, ERP pressure in IES and severe weakness at its top
client add to uncertainty around revenue growth revival. Margin resurrection
seen through FY16 fell apart in the absence of revenue growth, which we
believe challenges margin turnaround in FY17.
Cash generation weak as well:
Cash generation too faltered in 1QFY17, with
negative cash flow from operations of INR532m. FCF was at negative INR930m
in the quarter, offsetting FCF improvement seen through FY16. DSO at the end
of the quarter was higher by 7 days at 82.
Revenue revival key to re-rating:
Amid sluggish revenue growth momentum,
upcoming investments and multiple pressure points, we are conservative on
the margins front. We expect margins to decline 30bp in FY17 and expand 50bp
in FY18. Inconsistent revenue performance and consequent volatility in profits
are key drags on KPIT’s valuation multiples. Consequently, we maintain our
Neutral
rating, with a one-year price target of INR160—discounting forward
EPS by 10x.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1530
Sagar Lele
(Sagar.Lele@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1531