22 July 2016
1QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Consumer
ITC
Buy
BSE SENSEX
27,711
S&P CNX
8,510
CMP: INR251
TP: INR300(+20%)
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Cig volume surprise on the upside; Worst seems behind
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
ITC IN
12070.81
3025 / 46.3
2259/178
2/8/22
2595
100
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2016 2017E 2018E
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
362.2 395.8 446.3
EBITDA
137.2 153.6 177.0
NP
93.1 109.8 127.0
EPS (INR)
7.7
9.1
10.5
EPS Gr. (%)
-
17.9
15.6
BV/Sh. (INR)
27.3
31.9
36.7
RoE (%)
29.3
30.8
30.7
RoCE (%)
27.8
29.6
30.0
P/E (x)
32.5
27.6
23.8
P/BV (x)
9.2
7.9
6.8
EV/EBITDA (x)
20.6
18.3
15.6
Div. Yield
2.7
2.3
2.7
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
Cigarette Vol Gr (%)
Net Sales
YoY Change (%)
Total Exp
EBITDA
Growth (%)
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
Adj PAT
E: MOSL Estimates
1Q
-17.0
91,600
59,078
32,522
35.5
2,576
105
3,565
33,407
11,746
35.2
21,661
+7%
ITC’s 1QFY17 operating performance
was in line with estimates. Net revenues
(Ind AS) increased 9.8% YoY (est. 10%) to INR 100.5b. EBITDA margin decline
stood at 40bps over a very high base in 1QFY16 (vs. our estimate of 100bps
decline) while PAT before other comprehensive income (Ind AS) grew 10.1%
YoY (est. 10%) to INR 23.8b. Absolute Sales, EBITDA and PAT numbers differ
from our estimates due to IND AS adjustments.
We reckon cigarette volumes were up 3% YoY
(best numbers since 4QFY13
and better than our expectation of 1% increase) aided by higher growth in the
sub 65mm segment (now well over 20% share in overall volumes in our view),
benign base (1QFY16 had reported 17% volume decline) and lower price
increases off late. Cigarette revenues and EBIT posted 8.4% and 8% YoY growth
respectively on a like to like basis with 50bps expansion of Cig EBIT margin
(despite mix impact YoY). Cigarette volumes had been impacted over the past
3 years due to consecutive excise duty/VAT increases and regulatory
headwinds but the worst impact in terms of volume now seems to be over.
Non-Cigarette FMCG business posted 9.6% sales growth
which is creditable in
a weak operating environment. Segment reported EBIT loss of INR45m was
worse than our expectations of a marginal profit but was better than the 80
mn EBIT loss in 1QFY16. Agri business revenues increased over 20% led by
wheat and leaf tobacco sales while margin dipped 160bps YoY to 9.7%.
Maintain BUY; Raise TP:
We have kept our estimates largely unchanged for
FY17/18E. At 23.8x FY18E, ITC trades at significant discount to the sector
average. Volume growth outlook for the crucial Cigarette segment (86% of
FY16 EBIT) seems to be recovering over the past two quarters and we believe
worst is behind for Cigarettes. Consequently we raise our target P/E to 27x
June 2018 (in line with 5 year average multiple) and maintain
Buy
with a
revised target price of INR 300 (INR 280 earlier).
0.26
(INR Million)
FY16
1QE
1.0
94,465
10.0
58,165
36,300
7.2
38.4
2,840
110
3,308
36,658
11,730
32.0
24,927
Var.
FY16
2Q
3Q
-14.0
-5.0
89,042 91,767
-1.3
2.6
53,441 55,715
35,601 36,052
2.0
4.1
40.0
39.3
2,588 2,625
103
161
3,992 6,779
36,902 40,045
12,589 13,517
34.1
33.8
24,313 26,528
4Q
0.0
97,567
61,483
36,084
37.0
2,543
123
3,712
37,131
13,342
35.9
23,789
1Q
3.0
100,540
9.8
65,278
35,262
8.4
35.1
2,613
101
4,205
36,754
12,907
35.1
23,847
FY17
FY16
FY17E
2QE
3QE
4QE
2.0
-3.0
-5.0
-9.0
-1.0
97,056 97,273 104,939 365,827 399,809
9.0
6.0
7.6
0.2
9.3
57,766 58,280 64,875 228,647 246,199
39,290 38,993 40,064 137,179 153,610
10.4
8.2
11.0
1.4
12.0
40.5
40.1
38.2
37.5
38.4
3,106 3,150
3,315 10,319 12,184
186
195
197
491
678
4,591 7,118
4,826 17,693 20,740
40,590 42,766 41,378 144,061 161,488
12,989 13,258 12,523 50,949 51,676
32.0
31.0
30.3
35.4
32.0
27,601 29,509 28,856 93,113 109,812
6.4%
-2.9%
0.3%
-4.3%
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Krishnan Sambamoorthy
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1545
Vishal Punmiya
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1547