21 July 2016
1QFY17 Results Update | Sector:
Financials
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Kotak Mahindra Bank
CMP: INR761
TP: INR866 (+14%)
Buy
In-line, healthy lending business performance; stable asset quality
KMB’s standalone results:
PAT grew 3x YoY to INR7.4b (in line with estimates).
Strong core operating performance (+26% YoY), healthy NII growth (20% YoY) on
the back of margin improvement (4.4%), controlled opex growth (adjusted +12%
YoY), and stable asset quality (NSL at 1.3%) were the key highlights. Moderate
wealth management fee was the key drag on fee income (+12% YoY) in the
quarter.
Loans grew 17% YoY (+2% QoQ) led by robust growth in the corporate banking
(+9% QoQ, 22% YoY) and CV (+7% QoQ, 42% YoY) segments. Management
expects 20% growth for FY17.
Other highlights:
a) SMA2 at 39bp; b) SA growth of 34% YoY; c) continued
traction in CV loans (+14% QoQ) and business/personal loans (+9% QoQ).
Other businesses:
a) Profitability at its capital market businesses improved to
INR830m v/s INR680m a quarter ago, led by KMCC (INR230m v/s INR170m); b)
K-Sec market share improved 10bp QoQ to 2.4%; c) overall average AUM
increased 8% QoQ (+18% YoY) – average domestic AUM increased 7% QoQ and
31% YoY, of which equity AUM increased 7% QoQ (34% YoY).
Valuation and view:
Merger with eIVBL places KMB in a sweet spot, with strong
presence across geographies and products, and continued healthy capitalization (T1
of ~16%). The merged entity is India’s fourth largest private sector bank, with a loan
book of INR1.2t and loan market share of 1.7%+. KMB’s premium multiples are likely
to sustain, considering strong growth and operating leverage available across
businesses, and a clean loan portfolio. Comfort on asset quality remains the highest,
with no SDR/5:25, negligible SMA2 and OSRL (13bp). We cut
standalone/consolidated earnings by 3-4% over FY17/18, led by lower revenue
growth, and roll forward the target price. At our SOTP of INR866 (v/s INR863
previously), KMB will trade at 3.6x consolidated BV with cons. ROE of ~15%.
Buy.
Bloomberg
KMB IN
Equity Shares (m)
911.6
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 1,298.1/20.5
52-Week Range (INR)
790 / 587
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
-2/-2/7
12M Avg Val (INR M)
1035
Free float (%)
66.3
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016E 2017E 2018E
NII
69.0 80.8 97.2
OP
40.4 57.7 74.4
NP
20.9 33.1 43.5
34.6 49.1 62.3
Cons.
NP
NIM
(%)
4.1
4.4
4.5
Cons. EPS
18.9 26.8 34.0
EPSG
r. (%)
41.9 26.9
Cons. BV. (INR) 182
207
240
Cons. RoE (%) 10.9 13.8 15.2
RoA (%)
1.1
1.6
1.8
Valuations
P/E(X) (Cons.) 40.3 28.4 22.4
P/BV (X)
4.2
3.7
3.2
Div. Yield (%)
0.0
0.1
0.1
* Proforma merged (KMB+EIVBL )
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1526
Krishnan ASV
(A.Krishnan@MotilalOswal.com);+91 22 6129 1571 /
Dhaval Gada
(Dhaval.Gada@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1544
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.