23 July 2016
Results Update | Sector: Technology
Mphasis
Neutral
BSE SENSEX
27,803
S&P CNX
8,541
CMP: INR540
TP: INR570 (+6%)
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Sanguine deal signings…
…lend confidence to continued traction in Direct International channel
Delivering in the focus areas:
MPHL reported revenue decline of 0.3% QoQ to
USD225m in 1QFY17 (compared to our estimate of USD227.5m). Direct International
(ex. Digital Risk) segment grew 2.1% QoQ, continuing the momentum in its focus area.
Overall performance was weighed upon by decline in the HP channel (-4.2% QoQ),
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
MPHL IN
210.2
113.9 / 1.7
622 / 382
-4/6/28
129
39.5
decline in the Direct emerging business (-8.5% QoQ) and flat revenue in Digital Risk.
Deal signings of USD90m during the quarter, higher than the run-rate seen in FY16
(total of USD303m TCV in FY16), lend confidence and visibility of growth.
HP Channel to stabilize in 2QFY17:
The management has been indicating stabilization
of the HP Channel 2Q onwards. In 1QFY17, revenue from the HP channel declined by
4.2% QoQ to USD52m. The MSA provides visibility for USD990m in revenue over a five
year period, which would imply stability at ~USD50m. MPHL does not expect HPE’s
merger with CSC to impact the MSA with HP.
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2016 2017E
Y/E Mar
60.9
62.1
Net Sales
9.0
9.6
EBITDA
7.2
8.0
NP
34.5
38.1
EPS (INR)
6.8
10.6
EPS Gr. (%)
299.4 294.3
BV/Sh. (INR)
12.3
12.8
RoE (%)
11.2
12.0
RoCE (%)
15.7
14.2
Payout (%)
1.8
1.8
Div. Yield
2018E
71.9
11.4
8.9
42.4
11.3
310.3
14.0
13.5
12.8
1.7
Margin beat amid improving mix:
EBIT margin expanded by 70bp QoQ to 15.2%, above
our estimate of 14.3%; reaching mid-point of the guided range of 14-16%. While the
bettering revenue mix is aiding margin expansion, this quarter also benefited from a
24% reduction in depreciation expense to the tune of 30bp. Although 2Q will be
negatively impacted by wage hikes, the overall revenue mix change is on track to keep
the direction right through the course of the year.
Valuation and view:
Direct International (ex. Digital Risk) has been growing above
industry average, and drag on overall performance from HP is easing. At the same time,
the reduction in Direct Emerging business and volatility in Digital Risk have been
keeping overall revenue growth under check. We expect revenue CAGR of 6.1% and
EPS CAGR of 11.0% over FY16-18E. Our target price of INR570 discounts forward
operating PAT by 12x added to net cash of INR130/share.
Neutral.
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1530
Sagar Lele
(Sagar.Lele@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1531