Persistent Systems
BSE SENSEX
27,803
S&P CNX
8,541
24 July 2016
1QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Technology
CMP: INR658
TP: INR710 (+8%)
Neutral
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IBM-Watson IoT deal drives revenue growth
…But likely to weigh on profitability in the current year
In-line performance…:
Revenue growth of 4.3% QoQ to USD105m was in-line with our
estimate. Profitability too was in-line as EBITDA margins declined by 80bp QoQ to
15.1% - led by visa expenses and additional costs associated with the IBM-Watson IoT
deal. However, the decline in EBIT margins was more severe (-190bp QoQ to 10.2%) as
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
PSYS IN
80
50.7 / 0.8
797 / 563
-9/-2/5
70
61.9
amortization expense increased by 34% QoQ and 51% YoY because of the change to
IND-AS and subsequent increase in the value of intangible assets.
…but varying composition of revenue:
During the quarter, the IBM-Watson IoT deal
had revenue of USD11.5m and Citrix reported USD2m. Excluding the incremental
addition from these two, revenue was flat during the quarter. Growth in ISVs was
strong at 3.4% QoQ (versus 0.1% CQGR over FY16) and Enterprise saw a rebound (5.9%
QoQ versus 1.8% in the previous quarter). The sharp decline in IP revenue (ex. IBM and
Citrix) of ~13% QoQ weighed on growth.
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2016 2017E
Y/E Mar
23.1
29.9
Net Sales
4.2
4.7
EBITDA
3.0
3.0
NP
37.2
37.7
EPS (INR)
2.3
1.5
EPS Gr. (%)
211.0 238.3
BV/Sh. (INR)
19.5
17.3
RoE (%)
18.9
16.9
RoCE (%)
17.8
17.5
Payout (%)
3.1
2.8
Div. Yield
2018E
35.1
5.8
3.8
47.4
25.7
250.3
20.0
15.8
13.9
2.6
FY17 margins to remain a pain-point:
The costs associated with the IBM deal are front-
ended and are expected to weigh upon margins to the tune of 200bp in FY17. Margins
would face the headwind of wage hikes in 2Q; although a lot of it can be offset by
traditional levers. The structural recovery to margins would only begin once revenue
from the IBM deal reached a point where it exceeds the cost associated with it, which
is likely to be back-ended; resulting in a full-impact in FY18E.
…which keeps rerating in check:
The IBM deal and traction in the Enterprise segment
has waned some of the revenue growth pressures on PSYS, leading to visibility of
strong revenue growth over FY16-18E (20% revenue CAGR). While the deal provides
potential of earnings accretion in the year beyond, at 18/14x FY17/18E, valuation
upside at PSYS would be constrained by near-term pressures. Moreover, ISVs (ex. IBM)
continue to weigh on overall performance. Our revised target price of INR710 (post
~4% earnings cut in FY17/18E) discounts FY18E earnings by 15x.
Neutral.
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
; *IND-AS
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1530
Sagar Lele
(Sagar.Lele@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1531