25 July 2016
1QFY17 Results Update | Sector:
Financials
BSE SENSEX
28,095
S&P CNX
8,636
CMP: INR742
Indiabulls Housing Finance
TP: INR866 (+17%)
Buy
Bloomberg
IHFL IN
Equity Shares (m)
426.2
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 312.6/4.6
52-Week Range (INR)
820 / 551
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
7/-10/2
12M Avg Val (INR M)
1462
Free float (%)
75.8
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E March
2016 2017E 2018E
Net Fin inc
28.7 36.5 45.7
PPP
36.3 44.3 54.6
EPS (INR)
55.7 68.2 84.0
EPS Gr. (%)
4.1 22.6 23.0
BV/Sh. (INR)
254 280 315
3.3
3.3
RoA on AUM (%)
3.4
RoE (%)
27.1 25.6 28.2
Payout (%)
64.7 52.5 50.0
Valuations
P/E (x)
13.3 10.9 8.8
P/BV (x)
2.9
2.6
2.4
P/ABV (x)
2.9
2.6
2.4
Div. Yield (%)
4.9
4.8
5.7
Indiabulls Housing Finance’s (IHFL) PAT grew 23% YoY but declined 7% QoQ to
INR6.3b (In-line with our est. of INR6.2b). Strong AUM growth of 30.9% YoY, stable
asset quality and book spreads of 318bp were the key highlights of the quarter.
AUM growth remained healthy at 31% YoY to INR 710b; Loan mix continues to
shift in favor of housing loans—will increase from the existing 53% to 60% by FY18
and 65% by FY20. Home loan disbursements to the salaried segment is 70% and to
the self-employed segment is 30% - would continue to maintain the proportion.
NII growth was robust at 39% YoY on the back of 318bp of book spreads and
300bp incremental spreads. Overall cost of funds stood at 9.25%, down 35bp YoY
driven by decrease in bank borrowings as well as increased sell-downs, whereas
incremental borrowing cost stood 8.9%.
GNPAs remained stable sequentially at 0.84%; however provisions at INR1.26b
almost doubled as compared to INR0.65b in 1QFY16on a lower base as IHFL had
standard asset provisions buffer during last quarter.
Other highlights
a) O/S ZCBs stand at INR10.6b v/s INR19.6b in 1Q16- wont issue
further ZCBs. b) Sold loans of INR11.14b in 1QFY17 v/s 5.22b in 1QFY16 c)
Launched e-Home loans during the quarter d) Subordinate debt was upgraded to
AAA in the quarter.
Valuation and view:
IHFL’s transformation from a diversified lender to a focused
mortgage player has yielded returns, with RoE/RoA improving from 3%/0.8% in
FY09 to +26%/3.5% in FY16. Focus on mortgage and market share gains will drive
AUM growth of 26% over the next two years. IHFL is among the lowest-levered
HFCs (4.6x) to support growth. Asset quality trend is likely to remain stable.
Improved borrowing profile, better credit rating and liquidity buffer will aid the
company maintain healthy spreads. De-risked business model, superior
profitability and +5% dividend yield warrant premium. The stock is trading at PBV
of 2.4x FY18E. Maintain
Buy
with a target price of INR866 (2.75x FY18E PB).
Sunesh Khanna
(Sunesh.Khanna@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5521
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com)/Piran
Engineer
(Piran.Engineer@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4393
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.