BSE SENSEX
28,095
S&P CNX
8,636
The Ramco Cements
CMP: INR556
TP: INR625 (+12%)
Buy
Optimistic on near-term prospects of Cement sector
Well poised to benefit from momentum in Indian economy
We went through The Ramco Cement's (TRCL) annual report for FY16. Our key
takeaways:
25 July 2016
Annual Report
Update
| Sector:
Cement
Motilal Oswal values your support in
the Asiamoney Brokers Poll 2016 for
India Research, Sales and Trading
team. We
request your ballot.
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)/ (USD b)
Avg Val, (INR m)
Free float (%)
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016
2017E
2018E
TRCL IN
238.1
595/300
-4/31/54
132.4/ 2.0
102
57.7
Net Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr.(%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA(x)
EV/Ton(USD)
35.9
10.5
5.6
23.4
130.3
129.9
23.7
4.3
19.5
13.2
14.5
146
40.3
12.6
6.4
26.7
13.8
153.1
20.8
3.6
18.9
13.8
11.7
136
45.3
14.5
7.8
32.7
22.4
181.1
17.0
3.1
19.5
15.3
9.6
129
The management is optimistic on long-term cement demand and expects the industry
to grow 7-8% in FY17.
During the first two quarters of FY16, the southern markets declined 12%. However,
demand in AP and Telangana picked up in 2HFY16, leading to 8% growth. For FY16, the
decline was 5%.
FCF in FY16 was INR8.3b. With no immediate expansion plans, the visibility of
deleveraging is strong. In FY16, TRCL reduced borrowings by INR5.1b, leading to net
D/E of 0.7x versus 1x in FY15.
FY16 saw cost moderation of 8%, led by lower power, fuel and freight costs, which was
partially offset by higher limestone cost.
TRCL commissioned the 6MW thermal power plant project at Ariyalur in 4QFY16. With
this, the aggregate capacity of its thermal power plants has gone up from 157MW to
163MW.
Capital efficiencies (RoIC/RoE) were up 6.1bp/10bp, largely driven by strong volume
boost in the third and fourth quarters.
TRCL offers a strong play on southern recovery due to (a) superior brand, (b) edge on
cost efficiencies, aiding industry-leading profitability, and (c) visibility of deleveraging
(started in FY16). The stock trades at an EV of 9.6x FY18E EBITDA and USD129/ton. We
maintain Buy with a TP of INR625 (valuing the cement business at an EV of
USD144/ton and 11x FY18E EBITDA) – 12% upside.
Positive on sectoral prospects, led by signs of recovery in 2HFY16
Growth in FY16:
While all-India Cement industry growth was 4% in FY16 as against
6% in FY15, the southern states declined 5% due to lack of demand. Capacity
utilization was just 55% in the southern states against 75% in the remaining part of
the country. During the first two quarters of FY16, the southern markets de-grew
12%. From the third quarter, the southern markets began improving and de-growth
for the full year was restricted to 5%. During the fourth quarter, the southern
markets returned to the growth trajectory.
Outlook:
The present government’s policies are expected to give a big push to
economic activity. The thrust given in the Union Budget 2016-17 for development of
Roads & Highways, Ports, Flyovers & Bridges, Irrigation Schemes, Railway Projects,
Smart Cities, etc should boost cement demand. Lower interest rates, moderate
inflation, availability of loans for housing and tax benefits are expected to encourage
investments in residential housing. With the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh into
Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, infrastructure activity in the region is likely to get a
fillip. As a result, the Cement industry is expected to grow 7-8% in FY17. Average to
above-average monsoon for the year would further help sustain growth. However,
continued Rupee depreciation and oil price volatility could be concerning.
Stock Performance (1-year)
The Ramco Cement
Sensex - Rebased
650
550
450
350
250
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1524
Aashumi Mehta
(Aashumi.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1537
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.