28 July 2016
1QFY17 Results Update | Sector:
Healthcare
BSE SENSEX
28,209
S&P CNX
8,666
CMP: INR3,348
TP: INR3,150 (-6%)
GSK Pharma
Neutral
Weak results; margin improvement is key
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val (INR m)
Free float (%)
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E MAR
GLXO IN
84.7
283.6/4.2
3,850/3,036
-10/-10/-4
33
25.0
2016 2017E 2018E
27.4
4.5
3.7
44.2
-29.2
200.2
22.1
21.2
75.8
16.7
30.4
4.9
4.4
52.2
18.3
172.0
30.4
28.0
64.1
19.5
34.1
7.2
5.9
70.0
34.0
161.5
43.4
41.9
47.8
20.7
Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit
Adj. EPS
(INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
GSK Pharma’s (GLXO) 1QFY17 sales increased 10% YoY to INR6.9b (3% below
estimate), while EBITDA declined 32% YoY to INR702m (26% below estimate)
and PAT fell 23% YoY to INR723m (29% miss). Reported PAT included
exceptional income of INR18m related to the sale of land at Mulund. Capacity
constrains at Nasik facility, unavailability of quality third suppliers and policy
actions have been the key issues for GSK over the past few quarters.
Deal with Novartis boosts sales growth:
Total sales growth of ~10% YoY
includes ~4% growth from the vaccines asset sale agreement with Novartis
India. During the quarter, sales would have negatively impacted by various
regulatory actions. We expect revenues to grow at ~11-12% CAGR over FY16-
18E, in line with industry, led by: (1) commissioning of Bangalore capacity in
FY17 (resolving capacity issues), (2) high volume growth in key brands post
new pricing policy, (3) launches from its parent’s pipeline, and (4) price hikes
undertaken in DPCO products.
Margins contract significantly; improvement is key for growth:
EBITDA
margins at 10.2% (-650bp YoY) declined primarily due to an increase in other
operating expenses (+~600bp YoY). Regulatory issues also had a negative
impact on margins in 1Q. According to AIOCD, the impact of new DPCO list,
FDC ban and WPI deflation would be ~3% on GLXO. We believe that over time
due to substitution of products and increase in volumes, the real impact could
be much lower than this.
Valuation and view:
We believe GLXO has strong parent support, superior
brand portfolio (competitive advantage), high payout ratio (~100%) and
industry-leading return ratios (RoCE of 50%+). However, current valuation at
64x FY17E and 48x FY18E is on the higher side of historical P/E. Maintain
Neutral
with a target price of INR3,150 @ 45x FY18E PER. We cut our
FY17/18E EPS by ~10% on the back of slower revenue growth and margin
improvement.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Kumar Saurabh
(Kumar.Saurabh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1519