29 July 2016
1QFY17 Results Update | Sector:
Consumer
BSE SENSEX
28,052
S&P CNX
8,639
CMP: INR1,591
TP: INR1,625 (+2%)
V-Guard Industries
Neutral
Motilal Oswal values your support in
All-round performance impressive; growth outlook positive
the Asiamoney Brokers Poll 2016 for
Revenue growth across segments:
V-Guard Industries (VGRD) reported revenues
India Research, Sales and Trading
of INR5.7b (est. of INR5.9b) in 1QFY17, marking 14.7% YoY growth, led by strong
team. We
request your ballot.
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
VGRD IN
29.8
47.5/0.7
1636 / 787
12/66/71
47
34.3
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E MAR
2016 2017E 2018E
Sales
18.6 21.5
24.7
EBITDA
1.8
2.2
2.6
NP
1.1
1.5
1.7
EPS (Rs)
37.1 49.6
58.0
EPS Gr. (%)
57.4 33.6
17.0
BV/Sh (INR) 156.5 195.6 240.9
RoE (%)
26.3 28.2
26.6
RoCE (%)
25.4 28.1
26.6
P/E (x)
42.9 32.1
27.4
P/BV (x)
10.2
8.1
6.6
21.0
17.7
EV/EBITDA (x)
26.7
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
growth in products like stabilizers (+22%), UPS (+26%), pumps (+32%) and fans
(+20%). However, cables and wires, which is the largest segment, posted flattish
growth of (0.5%). Realizations in the cables and wires segment continue to remain
subdued on account of a decline in commodity prices compared to the base
quarter. Non-south markets grew 13.7% YoY, while south markets grew 15.3%
YoY. South to non-south mix stood at 62:38 in 1QFY17 v/s 62:38 in 1QFY16.
Margins improve, generates cash of INR1b in 1QFY17:
Gross margins improved
300bp YoY to 30.9%, while EBITDA grew 47% YoY to INR638m in 1QFY17 (est. of
INR663m). EBITDA margins expanded 240bp YoY to 11.1% in 1QFY17 (est. of
11.3%). Management highlighted that the improvement in gross margin was led
by a mix of lower input costs, better inventory management and spreading of
fixed overheads over strong sales growth. Interest costs declined sharply to
INR6m (v/s INR40m in 1QFY16) due to ~INR444m YoY debt reduction.
Consequently, adj. PAT grew 70% YoY to INR428m (est. of INR448m). Working
capital cycle improved by 21 days YoY/ 6 days QoQ to 54 days of sales, mainly led
by a reduction in inventory levels and better credit terms. Accordingly, there was
a significant improvement in cash generation to INR1b in 1QFY17 compared to
INR1.35b for FY16.
Margin, volume prospects promising:
Management pointed out that copper
prices are likely to bottom out, and the cables and wires business is likely to post
positive growth. In 1QFY17, volume growth in cables and wires was 9-10%.
Management believes that margins have scope to improve. However, the
company will reinvest the same into A&P spends and people, and largely maintain
margins around 10%.
Valuation and view:
Management highlighted that the outlook for 2HFY17
appears positive on the back of 7th Pay Commission and an increase in rural
spending due to good monsoon. We maintain our estimates of revenue CAGR of
15% and PAT CAGR of 25% over FY16-18E. Maintain
Neutral
with a TP of INR1,625
(28x FY18E EPS).
Niket Shah
(Niket.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5426
Chintan Modi
(Chintan.Modi@MotilalOswal.com); +912239825422
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.