1 August 2016
1QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Technology
Tech Mahindra
Neutral
BSE SENSEX
28,003
S&P CNX
8,636
CMP: INR490
TP: INR550(+12%)
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Much-needed reprieve in top clients’ performance
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
TECHM IN
970.1
475.4 / 7.1
575 / 403
-6/-10/-6
952
63.7
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2016 2017E
Y/E Mar
264.9 295.4
Net Sales
43.4
47.1
EBITDA
31.2
30.0
NP
35.1
33.8
EPS (INR)
19.7
-3.6
EPS Gr. (%)
165.6 193.8
BV/Sh. (INR)
23.4
19.8
RoE (%)
20.1
17.3
RoCE (%)
14.0
14.5
Payout (%)
3.0
2.5
Div. Yield
2018E
339.5
55.9
36.7
41.3
22.1
219.9
17.6
18.0
11.9
2.2
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Top clients’ performance turning the corner:
Tech Mahindra’s (TECHM)
1QFY17 CC revenue growth of 0.4% QoQ was marginally below our estimate of
+1.2% (and reported USD revenue grew to USD1,031.5m, up 0.8% QoQ v/s our
estimate of +1.8%). Revenues from its top 5 accounts turned the corner,
growing 4.1% QoQ compared to last six quarters’ sequential growth between -
12% and +0.5%. TECHM cited expectations of continued traction in the top
client bucket, a key positive.
Profitability disappoints:
EBITDA margin declined 180bp QoQ to 14.9%, higher
than our estimate of a 100bp fall QoQ, led by more pronounced seasonality in
Comviva than anticipated. Compared to the earlier target of margin expansion
YoY, TECHM now expects to maintain margins at FY16 levels (~16% EBITDA).
Higher other income (INR2.5b v/s estimate of INR0.7b) led to PAT of INR7.5b
(down 12.6% QoQ, up 20.5% YoY) higher than our estimate of INR6.9b.
Telecom could add to Enterprise momentum:
Enterprise business’ strong
execution continued with 4.2% QoQ growth. Comviva seasonality and LCC
dragged Telecom’s performance; however, excluding the same, core business
grew ~3% QoQ. With Comviva seasonality behind and LCC likely to stabilize
after one quarter, we expect sequential growth rates at TECHM to improve
(excluding acquisitions).
Expect some valuation catch-up in near term:
We have cut our EBITDA margin
estimates for FY17E/FY18E by 80bp/40bp to factor in the miss in the current
quarter and the impact from Ind-AS. While 1Q margin of 14.9% should be hurt
by ~50bp in 2Q due to GBP depreciation, discontinued visa costs and
operational efficiencies should aid gradual expansion in EBITDA margin. That
said, TECHM’s valuation of 11.9x FY18E EPS has fallen below peers like WPRO
(13.7x FY18E) and HCLT (12.8x FY18E). This quarter’s performance and
commentary demonstrated the gradual improvement in Telecom which begun
only last quarter. This gains further weight with likewise positive commentary
by peers on the vertical. We expect to see some catch up on valuations by
TECHM v/s peers, driving near-term outperformance. Our target price of
INR550 discounts FY18E earnings by 13x, implying 12% upside.
Neutral.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1530
Sagar Lele
(Sagar.Lele@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1531