5 August 2016
1QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Capital Goods
Cummins India
BSE SENSEX
28,078
S&P CNX
8,683
CMP: INR858
TP: INR865 (+1%)
Neutral
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Results disappoint; cutting estimates, maintain Neutral
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, (INR m)
Free float (%)
KKC IN
277.2
229.0 / 3.4
1,247 / 747
-1/-25/-65
255
49.0
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
Net Sales
47.0
50.8
58.2
EBITDA
7.7
8.6
10.0
Adj PAT
7.5
7.9
8.9
EPS (INR)
27.2
28.6
32.0
EPS Gr. (%)
(4.0)
5.2
11.8
BV/Sh. (INR)
114.4 125.9 138.7
RoE (%)
24.9
24.2
24.2
RoCE (%)
25.2
24.1
24.4
30.9
29.3
26.2
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
7.3
6.7
6.1
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Quarterly Performance (Standalone)
Y/E March
Sales
Change (%)
EBITDA
Change (%)
As of % Sales
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Effective Tax Rate (%)
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
Reported PAT
Change (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
1Q
13,101
25.3
2,217
23.3
16.9
203
24
595
2,585
472
18.2
2,114
(0.3)
2,114
(0.3)
Operating performance disappointing:
Cummins India’s (KKC) 1QFY17 revenue
declined 4% YoY to INR12.6b (below our estimate of INR13.6b). EBITDA
declined 7% YoY to INR2.1b (lower than our estimate of INR2.2b). EBITDA
margin shrank 50bp YoY to 16.4% (in line with our estimate of 16.5%). PAT
declined 14% YoY to INR1.8b (below our estimate of INR2.2b). Net profit miss
was also on account of lower dividend income from its JV, Valvoline Cummins
(INR140m v/s INR190m in 1QFY16).
Revenue de-growth led by sharp decline in export revenue:
KKC’s revenue
decline was primarily due to a 22% YoY decline in export revenue to INR4.1b.
Domestic revenue was up 9% YoY, aided by the industrial business (up 33%
YoY) and automotive revenue (up 15% YoY). Exports declined on account of
depressed demand for LHP/HHP gensets from key markets like LATAM, Africa,
the Middle East, China and Europe. KKC has maintained its FY17 guidance for
the export segment at flat to negative growth and has marginally raised its
domestic revenue growth guidance to 10-12% from earlier guidance of 8-12%.
Gross margin decline led by weak product mix and decline in exports:
Gross
margin declined 50bp YoY to 36.2%, led by adverse product mix and lower
exports. Exports contributed 34% of total revenue against 42% in 1QFY16.
Exports enjoy better margins than domestic sales.
Premium valuations; retain Neutral:
Given the weak 1QFY17 results, we are
lowering our EPS estimates by 3% for FY17 and by 4% for FY18. The stock
trades at 29.3x FY17E EPS of INR28.6 and at 26.2x FY18E EPS of INR32. Given
the stock’s premium valuations, we maintain
Neutral,
with a revised target
price of INR865 (27x FY18E EPS). Key risks to our rating are (a) faster than
expected revival in the domestic power generation market, and (b) sharp rise
in commodity prices, leading to pick-up in LHP exports.
(INR Million)
FY16
2Q
3Q
4Q
11,977 11,469 10,614
4.7
5.9
-6.4
2,007 1,550 1,773
5.7 -18.2
0.8
16.8
13.5
16.7
200
201
206
2
2
24
600
566
513
2,405 1,912 2,056
419
288
17.4
15.1
1,986 1,624
(1.9) (10.3)
1,986 1,624
(1.9) (10.3)
386
18.8
1,670
(12.3)
1,670
(12.3)
1Q
12,590
-3.9
2,063
-6.9
16.4
206
21
416
2,252
440
19.5
1,812
(14.3)
1,812
(14.3)
FY17
FY16
2QE
3QE
4QE
13,065 12,419 12,991 47,161
9.1
8.3
22.4
7.0
2,285 2,217 2,327 7,853
13.8
43.0
31.3
3.7
17.5
17.8
17.9
16.7
245
258
180
810
24
24
24
96
618
600
631 2,279
2,634 2,535 2,755 9,226
527
20.0
2,107
6.1
2,107
6.1
507
20.0
2,028
24.9
2,028
24.9
510
18.5
2,245
34.4
2,245
34.4
1,561
16.9
7,665
(2.5)
7,665
(2.5)
FY17 Vs Est.
Var.
1Q
(%)
50,811 13,555
-7.1%
7.7
3.1
8,638 2,237
-7.7%
23.5
2.6
17.0
16.5
-0.7%
889
230
96
2
2,265
619
9,919 2,623 -14.1%
1,984
20.0
7,935
3.5
7,935
3.5
472
18.0
2,151
2.1
2,151
2.1
-15.8%
-15.8%
Ankur Sharma
(ankur.vsharma@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3982 5449
Amit Shah
(amit.shah@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3029 5126
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.