8 August 2016
Q1FY17 Results Update | Sector: Consumer
Marico
BSE SENSEX
28,183
S&P CNX
8,711
CMP: INR300
TP: INR305(2%)
Neutral
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Lower input costs drive profitability
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, INRm/ Vol m
Free float (%)
MRCO IN
1,290.2
324.3 / 4.9
307 / 190
10/13/37
388
40.3
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
Net Sales
60.1
63.0
75.3
EBITDA
10.4
11.8
14.3
PAT
7.2
8.3
10.2
EPS (INR)
5.6
6.4
7.9
Gr. (%)
26.1
14.6
22.8
BV/Sh (INR)
16.3
18.5
21.6
RoE (%)
36.9
37.0
39.3
RoCE (%)
31.4
32.2
34.3
P/E (x)
53.5
46.7
38.0
P/BV (x)
18.5
16.2
13.9
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Sales below estimates; EBITDA and PAT exceed expectations:
Marico (MRCO)
posted flat consolidated net sales growth of 0.1% YoY (est. of +10.5% YoY) to
INR17.5b (Ind-AS), EBITDA growth of 16.8% YoY (est. of +13.5% YoY) to INR3.7b
and adjusted PAT growth of 17.2% YoY (est. of +13.1% YoY) to INR2.68b.
Volume growth was 8% for both the domestic (est. of 11%) and international
businesses. Domestic business reported flat revenue growth, with market
shares gained/maintained across all key segments – Parachute (7% volume and
-12% value growth), Saffola (11% volume and value growth) and VAHO (9%
volume and value growth).
Gross margins expanded 720bp YoY
to 51.9%, led by benign RM costs—copra
down 41% YoY (-7% QoQ), Liquid Paraffin down 19% YoY and HDPE down 9%
YoY. Despite higher ad spends (+220bp YoY) and other expenses (+160bp),
EBITDA margin expansion was impressive at 300bp YoY (est. of 50bp) to 21.1%.
PAT grew 17.2% YoY (est. of 13.1%) to INR2.68b.
Concall highlights:
(a) Volume growth guidance of 5-7% for the next three
quarters in Parachute. (b) Saffola volume growth guided at 10% in 2HFY17, and
sees a strong pipeline of products as well in that period (c) Guided for 8-10%
growth in VAHO volumes for the remainder of the year. (d) Monsoons will lead
to lower inflation and thus more spending power for consumers. DBT and 7th
Pay Commission implementation will also help rural demand.
Retain Neutral
:
Volume growth, although lower-than-anticipated, was healthy
across all domestic segments, which is a positive surprise when compared to
peers. Strong gross margin growth ensured EBITDA and PAT beat. While margin
gains may not be as high in the subsequent quarters with hardening input
costs, changes to our model have resulted in 2%/7% upgrade to our FY17/FY18
EPS forecasts. Consistently strong volume performance in an adverse
environment, healthy EPS growth, ROEs of close to 40% and high standards of
disclosures/corporate governance justify the valuation premium. Targeting
36xJune 2018 EPS, we get a TP of INR305. Maintaining
Neutral.
Krishnan Sambamoorthy
(Krishnan.Sambamoorthy@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5428
Vishal Punmiya
(Vishal.Punmiya@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3980 4261
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
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