Grasim Industries
BSE SENSEX
27,860
S&P CNX
8,592
11 August 2016
1QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Cement
CMP: INR4,539
Under Review
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Strong realizations and cost moderation boost 1QFY17 results
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
GRASIM IN
93.3
423.7 / 6.3
5,349 / 3,242
-1/13/22
290
68.7
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
2016
2017E
2018E
Y/E Mar
365.9
408.2
459.6
Net Sales
60.2
79.8
101.5
EBITDA
22.6
35.5
44.1
NP
241.7
380.2
472.4
EPS (INR)
26.8
57.3
24.3
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR) 2,766.8 3,120.6 3,568.1
9.2
12.9
14.1
RoE (%)
10.0
13.2
15.6
RoCE (%)
18.8
11.9
9.6
Payout (%)
132.3
115.4
113.7
Div. Yield
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Strong margins led by cost control:
Grasim Industries’ (GRASIM) standalone
1QFY17 EBITDA rose 90% YoY (+18% QoQ) to INR5.1b, translating into margins
of 21.2% (+4pp QoQ, +7.3pp YoY), driven by near-peak utilizations, high pricing
and lower energy costs. Revenues grew 25% YoY to INR24b, while PAT stood at
INR3.2b (2.5x YoY) led by better margins.
VSF – encouraging utilization ramp-up and pricing boost:
VFS revenues grew
32% YoY to INR16.5b (est. of INR17.6b), led by volume growth of 17% YoY (est.
of +25% YoY) and realizations boost of 13% YoY, which translated into (a)
margins of 19% (v/s 11% in 1QFY16) and (b) RoCE of high-teens. Realizations
boost was attributable to uptrend in prices and depreciation of INR. With
commendable ramp-up at the Vilayat plant, overall utilizations stood at 97%.
Healthy demand aids Chemicals business:
Chemicals revenues stood at INR9b
(+18% YoY), with utilization at 100%. Margins improved to 35% from 22% in
1QFY16, led by higher volumes.
Management outlook:
Both VSF and Chemicals businesses are likely to see
improved domestic demand. De-bottlenecking of the Vilayat plant was
completed in 1QFY17, which increased capacity of Chemicals to 8,40,000 tpa
from 8,04,000 tpa. Key medium-term focus areas are: 1) more premium
product mix, (2) expanding domestic reach, (3) additional capex in organic and
inorganic route in right juncture and (4) improvement in cost efficiencies.
Aditya Birla Nuvo-GRASIM merger:
The restructuring will result in the listing of
the merged financial services business, which will be 57% owned by post-
merger GRASIM and the balance by its shareholders on a proportionate basis.
Shareholders will receive three equity shares of GRASIM for every 10 equity
shares of Aditya Birla Nuvo, and seven shares of Aditya Birla Financial Services
for every one equity share of GRASIM.
Valuation and view:
At CMP, GRASIM trades at 11.9x/9.6x FY17/18E EPS,
8.4x/6.3x FY17/18E EV/EBITDA and EV/ton of USD114 (50-55% discount to
UTCEM’s valuation). Considering this proposed merger, we put our rating on
the stock under review.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 6129 1524
Aashumi Mehta
(Aashumi.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1537