Alkem Laboratories
BSE SENSEX
28,152
S&P CNX
8,672
13 August 2016
Q1FY17 Results Update | Sector: Healthcare
CMP: INR1,561 TP: INR1,800(+15%)
Buy
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Strong overall performance; Margins continued to surprise positively
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
12M Avg Val (INR M)
Free float (%)
ALKEM IN
119.6
186.6 / 2.8
1,626/1,175
10/-4/-
426
33.1
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
Sales
49.9
60.1
71.8
EBITDA
8.5
10.4
13.3
NP
7.7
8.9
10.3
EPS (INR)
64.7
74.8
85.8
EPS Gr. (%)
67.4
15.6
14.6
BV/Sh. (INR)
293.0 352.8 419.3
RoE (%)
23.8
23.2
22.2
RoCE (%)
17.6
21.0
20.5
P/E (x)
20.8
18.0
15.7
P/BV (x)
4.6
3.8
3.2
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Alkem’s net sales for 1QFY17 stood at INR14.6b, up 21% YoY (beat of 3.5%),
driven by a strong domestic performance (up 22% YoY) and steady growth in
US (up 12% YoY). Despite regulatory headwinds in domestic markets and
increase in R&D to ~5.4% (up 180bps YoY), EBITDA margin was at record high
levels at 18.6% (up 150 bps YoY & ~300bps above our est). Strong margin
performance was driven by robust growth in India (most profitable division for
the company). PAT came at INR2.4b (up 19% YoY) and was positively impacted
by lower tax rate at ~9% in 1Q.
Domestic business’ robust growth to continue despite regulatory headwinds:
Alkem’s domestic business grew by an impressive 22% YoY. 1Q FY16 domestic
revenues were suppressed (part of it got deferred to 2Q) due to change in
accounting treatment (revenue recognition changed from invoicing to
shipment). Even after normalizing impact of this, domestic business grew at a
robust pace of ~15-16% YoY in 1Q FY17 (vs reported growth of ~22% YoY).
Going forward, we believe that a consistent outperformance in established
therapies, coupled with improvement in productivity of the company’s sales
force in the chronic segment will help partially offset the impact of regulatory
headwinds (we estimate ~16% CAGR till FY18E).
Strong launch momentum in US to continue:
US sales came in at INR2.7b (up
~12% YoY). We expect a ramp-up in sales momentum going forward on the
back of 3 recently launched ANDAs and 5-6 launches due in rest of FY17
(including Benicar in 2Q and Crestor in Nov-16).
Key concall takeaways:
a) Domestic business to grow at 15-16% in FY17; b) US
business can potentially double by FY19; c) Taloja plant cleared; Daman and
Ankleshwar US FDA inspection due in FY17; d) Capex for FY17 to be ~INR5b; e)
Tax rate to be ~12-15% in FY17; f) Half of price control impact to come in 2Q.
Valuation attractive; sticky profit provides comfort:
We believe that the stock
will witness a re-rating, going forward, given the company’s strong India
presence, net cash balance sheet, operating free cash generation and
improving return ratios (ROIC to improve to ~24% by FY18E vs. 16% in FY15).
Our target price of INR1,800 for Alkem is based on 21x FY18E PER (as compared
to our earlier target price of INR1,700 @ 20x FY18E PER).
(INR Million)
FY17E
2Q
3Q
15,187 15,297
12.0
20.0
2,582
2,600
17.0
17.0
280
295
347
287
2,649
2,592
2,649
425
16.0
2,224
30
2,194
2,194
-11.0
2,592
345
13.3
2,247
30
2,217
2,217
18.4
FY16
4Q
15,057
31.8
2,507
16.7
332
475
2,650
2,650
477
18.0
2,172
22
2,150
2,150
36.3
49,915
31.7
8,482
17.0
1,006
975
8,451
0
8,451
1,606
19.0
6,845
114
6,731
0
6,731
45.5
FY17E
60,119
20.4
10,401
17.3
1,137
1,290
10,554
0
10,554
1,477
14.0
9,076
127
8,949
0
8,949
32.9
FY17E
1QE
14,084
16.0
2,155
15.3
265
250
2,140
2,140
350
16.4
1,790
30
1,760
1,760
-3.4
Var
%
3.5
25.8
Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Net Revenues
YoY Cha nge (%)
EBITDA
Ma rgi ns (%)
De pre ci a ti on
Ne t Othe r Income
PBT before EO Exp
EO Exp/(Inc)
PBT
Ta x
Ra te (%)
PAT (pre Minority Interest)
Mi nori ty Inte re s t
Reported PAT
YoY Cha nge (%)
Adj Net Profit
YoY Cha nge (%)
1Q
12,075
2,062
17.1
206
251
2,107
2,107
68
3.2
2,039
28
2,011
2,011
FY16
2Q
3Q
13,560 12,747
29.0
2,545
2,354
18.8
18.5
277
244
334
161
2,602
2,270
2,602
91
3.5
2,511
45
2,466
2,466
2,270
345
15.2
1,925
35
1,889
17.0
1,872
17.0
4Q
11,426
25.3
1,580
13.8
260
319
1,639
1,639
1,066
65.0
573
6
567
-56.3
1,577
21.4
1Q
14,579
20.7
2,711
18.6
230
181
2,663
2,663
230
8.6
2,433
45
2,388
2,388
18.7
24.4
35.7
35.7
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Kumar Saurabh
(Kumar.Saurabh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1519
Gaurav Tinani
(Gaurav.Tinani@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 6129 1552