13 August 2016
1QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Healthcare
Granules India
BSE SENSEX
28,152
S&P CNX
8,672
CMP: INR135
TP: INR160 (+19%)
Buy
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Results largely in line; margins remained robust
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, (INR m)
Free float (%)
GRAN IN
216.7
29.3 / 0.4
164 / 101
-10/4/27
218
48.9
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
Sales
14.3
15.6
19.0
EBITDA
2.8
3.2
4.0
NP
1.2
1.6
2.2
EPS (INR)
5.5
6.8
9.8
EPS Gr. (%)
22.8
25.1
42.6
BV/Sh. (INR)
30.7
39.6
47.5
RoE (%)
21.6
19.9
22.4
RoCE (%)
14.0
14.1
16.4
P/E (x)
24.6
19.7
13.8
P/BV (x)
4.4
3.4
2.8
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
As per Ind-AS, revenues grew 7%YoY to INR3.4b (largely in line) led by sustained
traction in CMO and Rx business. However, EBITDA increased 11% YoY to INR692m
on the back of improved business mix in 1QFY17. EBITDA margins expanded 72bps
YoY, to 20.1% primarily owing to higher gross margins (up 280 bps YoY). PAT grew
37% YoY to INR390m (+9% beat). JV business (Biocause and Omnichem delivered
robust profits of INR71m in 1QFY17.
Finished dosage continues to shine:
Finished dosage segment grew 31%YoY
to ~INR1.2b, driven by scale up in Rx business. PFI segment declined by 13%
YoY and API segment grew at a modest pace of 4.4% YoY to INR1.4b. The
company has been witnessing pricing pressure within the Paracetamol
molecule that has resulted in muted API sales. The company maintained its
consolidated top-line growth of ~15-16% YoY in FY17. Company expects to
launch 1
st
ANDA product from US Pharma acquisition (gLatuda) in 4Q FY18.
Over FY16-18E, we expect GRAN’s revenues to grow at 18% CAGR (adjusted for
JV sales), driven by strong growth in Finished dosages segment.
Margins remained robust on the back of favorable business mix:
EBITDA
margin at 20.1% (up 72bp YoY) was boosted by higher contribution from
finished dosages segment during this quarter (~36% of sales vs 29% in 1Q
FY16). Moreover, The company is also working on improving manufacturing
efficiency that resulted in better yield for some of the key products. We expect
EBITDA margins to expand by 240bp over FY16-18E led by improving business
mix and better operating leverage. Hence, EBITDA is likely to outpace revenue
growth at 21% CAGR over FY16-18E.
Earnings acceleration to drive valuation upside:
We expect GRAN to
report 34% PAT CAGR over FY16-18E, driven by improving traction in finished
dosages formulations. However, the story beyond FY18 is much rosier, as we
see more approvals in the US for the OTC and Rx business and ramp-up is
expected in Omnichem JV, which will drive both revenue and profitability. At
CMP stock trades at 20x FY17E and 14x FY18E EPS. We re-iterate
Buy
with
target price of INR160 (@16x FY18E EPS).
Kumar Saurabh
(Kumar.Saurabh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1519
Gaurav Tinani
(Gaurav.Tinani@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 6129 1552
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.