State Bank of India
BSE SENSEX
28,123
S&P CNX
8,673
18 August 2016
Update
| Sector:
Financials
CMP: INR248
TP: INR290 (+17%)
Buy
Mega merger crosses another hurdle
Share swap to lead to ~1.8% dilution for SBI
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val ( INRm)
Free float (%)
SBIN IN
7,763.6
288 / 148
7/32/-14
1,925.4
28.8
4553
39.8
Event: State Bank of India (SBIN) at its board meeting today approved swap ratio for the
listed three associate banks (SBBJ, SBM and SBT) and the Government of India’s wholly
owned Bhartiya Mahila Bank Limited (BMBL). Parent stake in associate banks will get
cancelled post-merger. Other two associate banks, SBH and SBP, are wholly owned by
SBIN, and their merger thus will not lead to any dilution.
At share swap ratio, 1.8% dilution for SBIN
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
NII
569
610
693
OP
433
475
499
NP
100
113
146
EPS (INR)
15.7
14.7
24.3
EPS Gr. %
-30.8
-6.4
64.6
Cons. BV (INR)
222
234
253
P/E (x)
15.1
16.2
9.8
P/BV (x)
1.1
0.9
0.9
RoE (%)
7.6
7.9
9.5
RoA (%)
0.5
0.5
0.5
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
Jun-16 Mar-16 Jun-15
60.2
60.2
59.2
19.5
18.8
18.3
10.7
10.9
13.6
9.7
10.1
8.9
Please refer note
dated 18 May 2016
SBIN would issue 28/22/22 equity shares of INR1 each for every 10 shares of
INR10 of SBBJ/SBM/SBT. Further, it would issue 44.2m shares in exchange of
1b equity shares of BMBL.
At the share swap ratio, SBBJ/SBM/SBT are valued at INR48.7b/26.2b/38.9b,
which is at 3.4%/(12.4%)/7.3% premium/(discount) to today’s closing price. On
PBV basis, SBBJ/SBM/SBT are valued at 0.7x/0.6x/0.6x FY16, as against 1.1x for
SBIN.
Overall share swap would lead to ~1.8% equity dilution in exchange shares to
be issued to minority shareholders.
Another hurdle crossed; Focus shifts to merged accounts now
FII Includes depository receipts
Post the announcement of the merger (refer
note dated 18 May 2016),
this
was another hurdle to be crossed. Now, the focus will shift to merged number.
In 1QFY17, we saw weak performance at associate banks as SBIN focused on
harmonizing accounting policies and asset classification.
We expect similar weak performance for 2QFY17 as well, and expect SBIN to
report merged financials from 3QFY17.
SBIN has already communicated employee-related one-time cost of INR30b
for additional benefits. Further, it will have to bear additional cost of
INR250m/month for change in salary structure of associate banks.
High long-term synergies; Integration of 70k+ employees is a challenge
Branch rationalization, if executed well, would be one of the key synergy
benefits from the merger. Cost savings on account of treasury operations,
audit, technology, etc. would lower cost-to-income ratio in the long term.
High networth post-merger makes SBIN a default bank for corporate India.
Further, strong branch network and SBI brand will increase retail and SME
business. Liability franchise is likely to get further strength from the merger.
Immediate negative impact would be from pension liability provisions (due to
different employee benefit structures) and harmonization of accounting
policies for NPA recognition. Consolidated CET1 ratio remains at 9.5%+.
Integration of 70k+ employees (34% of parent workforce; size of business is
25% of the parent’s) will be a key challenge.
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
AS Venkata Krishnan
(a.krishnan@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 30102603
/
Rahul Gupta
(Rahul.PGupta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 39825505
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.