Indo Count Industries
BSE SENSEX
27,836
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val. (INR m)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,592
ICNT IN
39.5
33.8 / 0.5
1,248/720
-2/-17/-10
77
41.1
25 August 2016
1QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Textiles
CMP: INR856
TP: INR1,321 (+54%)
Buy
Laying foundations for long-term growth
Results below expectations:
Indo Count Industries’ (ICNT) 1QFY17 revenues
rose 7.6% to INR4.9b (est. of INR5.4b) from INR4.6b in 1QFY16. Volumes grew
7.3% to 13.46m mtrs from 12.54m mtrs in 1QFY16. EBITDA grew 9% to
INR1,103m (est. of INR1,257m) from INR1,012m in 1QFY16. EBITDA margin
rose 30bp to 22.4% (est. of 23.3%) from 22.1% in 1QFY16. Gross margin fell
270bp to 48.3%, offset by a 350bp fall in other expenses to 20.5% from 24% in
1QFY16. Consequently, PAT grew 15.6% YoY to INR603m (est. INR729m).
No material impact of cotton prices on gross margins:
Cotton prices have
increased ~10% over the past few months; however, management mentioned
it has enough raw material inventory to sustain till October. Globally, cotton
prices have corrected over the past month, and this trend is expected to flow
in India too. ICNT may re-consider pricing with customers if cotton prices
remain at this level or increase further in October-November. It may also pass
on price the increase to customers to sustain gross margin levels.
Move toward B2C and expansion to aid long-term sustainability:
Recently, the
company had launched three propriety bed linen brands in fashion and utility
bedding, which we believe will help ICNT transform from a B2B to a B2C player,
thus commanding higher prices and margins. Management highlights total
capex of INR4.25b (ex-effluent treatment) to generate 2-2.5x revenues. Entire
capacity expansion plans should be completed by FY18, thus contributing to
revenues from FY19. It expects revenues of INR9-10b with 23-25% EBITDA
margins at full utilization, aiding long-term sustainability.
Valuation and view:
We slightly cut FY17E/ FY18E PAT by 4.5% due to its
weak-than-expected 1QFY17 results. With a unique asset light business model,
ICNT enjoys robust capital efficiency. With its foray into products like fashion,
institutional linen and utility bedding, we expect 17% revenue CAGR and 28%
PAT CAGR over FY16-18. Maintain
Buy
with TP of INR1,321 (12x FY18E EPS).
FY17
2QE
3QE
6,753 6,031
16.0
20.0
5,254 4,668
1,499 1,363
22.2
22.6
56
59
89
90
4
6
1,358 1,220
502
402
37.0
32.9
856
818
856
818
64.1
24.1
12.7
13.6
FY16
4QE
6,300
20.0
4,845
1,455
23.1
60
84
6
1,317
442
33.5
876
876
38.0
13.9
22,128
24.2
17,393
4,735
21.4
189
549
0
3,998
1,329
33.3
2,668
2,668
62.9
12.1
FY17E
25,082
13.4
19,439
5,643
22.5
251
351
21
5,063
1,671
33.0
3,392
3,392
27.1
13.5
(INR Million)
FY17
Var
1QE
%
5,394
-9
17.0
4,137
1,257
-12
23.3
58
88
5
1,116
-17
387
34.6
729
-17
729
-17
31.7
13.5
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
EBITDA
PAT
EPS (INR)
Gr. (%)
BV/Sh (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
2016 2017E 2018E
22.1
4.7
2.7
67.6
62.9
166.1
49.4
50.3
12.7
5.2
25.1
5.6
3.4
85.9
27.1
255.5
40.8
32.3
10.0
3.4
30.1
7.0
4.3
110.0
28.1
370.2
35.2
31.5
7.8
2.3
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Standalone - Quarterly Earning Model
Y/E March
Net Sales
YoY Change (%)
Total Expenditure
EBITDA
Margins (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adj PAT
YoY Change (%)
Margins (%)
E: MOSL Estimates
1Q
4,579
44.9
3,567
1,012
22.1
67
146
0
798
277
34.6
522
522
109.4
11.4
FY16
2Q
3Q
5,821 5,026
21.6
17.3
4,577 3,942
1,245 1,084
21.4
21.6
44
45
155
93
0
0
1,046
946
387
311
37.0
32.9
659
634
659
634
55.1
45.4
11.3
12.6
4Q
5,250
15.0
4,087
1,163
22.2
51
119
0
993
333
33.5
660
660
44.5
12.6
1Q
4,926
7.6
3,824
1,103
22.4
80
98
0
924
321
34.8
603
603
15.6
12.2
Niket Shah
(Niket.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5426
Chintan Modi
(Chintan.Modi@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5422
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.