27 August 2016
1QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Automobiles
Tata Motors
Buy
BSE SENSEX
27,782
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, (INR m)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,573
TTMT IN
3,395.9
1,710.3 / 25.5
522/266
1/47/41
4,037
67.0
CMP: INR504
TP: INR562 (+12%)
Below estimates; JLR Margins impacted by lower China incentive & MTM
Fx impact; Expect recovery from 2QFY17
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E
Net Sales
2,755.6 2,879.2
EBITDA
402.4
410.2
NP
125.2
134.5
Adj.EPS(INR)
36.9
39.6
EPS Gr. (%)
-15.5
7.5
BV/Sh. (INR)
237.9
276.5
RoE (%)
18.3
15.4
RoCE (%)
14.3
11.2
P/E (x)
13.7
12.7
P/BV (x)
2.1
1.8
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Consol
sales at INR659b (v/s est INR633b; +9% YoY). EBITDA at INR76.2b (v/s
est INR82.9b; +12% YoY). Adj. PAT at INR18.8b (v/s est INR24.3b; -60% YoY).
JLR
realization at GBP45k (v/s est GBP44k) grew 2.8% QoQ (flat YoY) driven by
favorable Fx. EBITDA margins at 12.3% (v/s est ~15.4%) were impacted due to
MTM impact on payables (~150bp impact), lower incentives in China (~100bp
impact) and partly due to launch expenses. However, adj PAT came in at
2018E
GBP265m (v/s est ~GBP255m) boosted by higher share of Cherry JV profits
3,242.4
and lower depreciation and Fx gains.
487.6
182.6
S/A
EBITDA margins (ex JV) were at 5.7% (v/s est 7.4%), decline of 240bp QoQ
53.8
(-40bp YoY) due to higher staff cost. Adj PAT was at INR996m (v/s est ~INR
35.7
3.35b) declined by 80% QoQ.
327.0
Earnings call highlights:
a) Other expenses had Fx loss on realized hedges of
17.8
GBP123m, there was commensurate benefit reflecting in sales. b)
China JV:
13.0
Margins are strong, but will moderate due to additional cost as full capacity
9.4
1.5
commissions. c) F-Pace has average waiting period of 3-4 months.
Valuation & view:
While we raise our EPS for FY17 by 8%, we cut FY18 by 5%. The
stock trades at 9.2x/7.3x FY17/18E consol EPS. We expect JLR’s operating
performance to start improving from 2QFY17, driven by continued volume
momentum and gradual benefit of weaker GBP. S/A business should benefit from
CV cycle recovery and favorable product lifecycle for PV business. Maintain
Buy.
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Venil Shah
(Venil.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5445
/Aditya Vora
(Aditya.Vora@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3078 4701
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

Tata Motors
JLR: Below estimates; EBITDA margins at 12.3% (v/s est 15.4%) impacted by
lower China incentive & MTM Fx impact
JLR’s (ex Chery JV) wholesale volumes up 9% YoY (-19% QoQ) to 120,776 units
(v/s est ~138,531 units), driven by Jaguar volume growth of ~63% YoY to 34,572
units, while LandRover volumes declined by 3.6% YoY to 86,204 units.
Incremental growth for Jaguar came from newly launched F-Pace.(~13406 units)
Chery JV volumes registered strong growth of ~13,558 units (+8% QoQ).
Including JV, JLR volumes grew ~17% YoY (-17% QoQ) to ~134,334 units (v/s est
~155,847 units).
JLR realization at GBP45k (v/s est GBP44k) grew 2.8% QoQ (flat YoY) driven by
better mix.
Net sales at GBP5.5b (v/s est. GBP5.4b) grew ~9% YoY (-17% QoQ) driven by
volume growth.
JLR adj. EBITDA margins at 12.3% (v/s est ~15.4%) partly due to MTM impact of
adverse Fx on payables (~150bp impact), lower incentives in China (at GBP6m
v/s GBP62m in 1QFY16) and partly due to launch expenses of F-Pace, Evoque
Convertible and XE in US.
EBITDA margins adj for MTM fx impact of payables (~GBP83m) were at 14%.
Adj EBITDA declined ~18% YoY (-37% QoQ) to GBP672m (v/s est GBP834m).
Cherry JV continued to beat our estimates with share of PAT at ~GBP45b despite
operation at 42% utilization. The JV’s wholesale volumes were at 13,558 units
(v/s 12,532 units in 4QFY16). JLR’s share in profit of Chery JV declined by 8%
QoQ.
As a result Adj PAT came in at GBP265m boosted by higher share of Cherry JV
profits and lower taxes, which was partially offset by higher depreciation and
lower Fx gains YoY.
Exceptional items included ~GBP50m of recoveries related to Tiajin port
explosion.
Total Capex and Product development spend for the quarter was GBP692m and
(12.7% of revenues)
JLR’s 1QFY17 negative FCF was GBP633m, with negative CFO of GBP54m. This
was post investment spending of GBP692m and GBP647m of seasonal and
launch related increases in inventory.
Exhibit 2: Trend in Jaguar’s product mix (incl JV)
XE
XJ
XF
F-Type
F-Pace
Others
39
20
7
25
Exhibit 1: Trend in Land Rover’s product mix (incl JV)
Defender
33
17
14
21
11
4
32
15
15
21
12
5
Discovery
34
9
16
22
15
5
27
13
17
24
14
6
RR Sport
29
18
15
21
11
6
24
22
14
22
12
6
RR
FL2/DS
25
25
14
19
12
5
25
28
12
20
13
2
Evoque
26
29
13
20
12
0
53
22
-
59
22
-
61
23
-
67
18
-
42
15
25
23
7
57
37
10
42
39
15
32
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
27 August 2016
2

Tata Motors
Exhibit 3: Trend in JLR’s market mix (incl JV)
N. America
UK
Europe
China
ROW
16
31
19
17
17
17
29
17
22
16
15
29
22
15
18
13
19
22
25
20
17
17
28
19
19
20
18
17
24
22
19
19
25
17
20
15
18
25
22
19
15
20
26
17
22
Source: Company
Exhibit 4: Share of China volumes moderate to 20% (incl JV)
Share of China vols (%)
30
27 28
24
18
17
18
19
18
20
Exhibit 5: Premium model share at 46% levels
Share of premium models (%)*
63
61
60 59
59
57
55
52
26
21
25
56
52
50
48
46
* Incl Chery JV volumes
* RR+ RR Sport+ Evoque+ F-Type
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 6: JLR realizations rises marginally QoQ
Exhibit 7: JLR margins impacted by lower incentive in China
and negative Fx impact of payables
EBITDA (GBP m)
19.1
14.5 14.0 15.8
17.5
16.2
13.9
20.3
EBITDA Margin (%)
18.6
16.4
17.2
19.4
17.4
14.4
12.3
16.2
12.2
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
JLR: Key takeaways from the call
EBITDA margins adj for MTM Fx impact on working capital items was 14%.
While Other expenses had Fx loss on realized hedges of GBP123m, there was
commensurate benefit reflecting in sales.
JLR would eventually and gradually benefit from favorable GBP as hedges would
restrict benefit in near term, adverse impact of MTM on payables would weigh
on operating performance in the near term
Other expenses also higher due to launch expense for F-Pace, Evoque
convertible and XE launch in US.
Lower incentives in China impacted EBITDA margins by 100bp YoY basis. The
management indicated that it expects it to be at lower level than in the past.
3
27 August 2016

Tata Motors
China JV:
Margins are strong, but will moderate due to additional cost as full
capacity commissions.
Variable marketing expenses for JLR were under control due to favorable
product lifecycle
Favorable Fx offers some opportunity to increase volumes.
Pension liability:
It completed triennial valuations of the pension liabilities.
However, there is not much difference in deficit situation as against earlier.
F-Pace has average waiting period of 3-4 months.
Evoque convertible might not be volume driver, but should help revive interest
in Evoque By 2020, only small portion of JLR volumes would be from EV/hybrid,
but contribution from EV/Hybrid to pick-up substantially post 2020.
S/A volumes (incl Joint operations) increased 8% YoY (-14%QoQ) to 127k units,
driven by 9% YoY growth in CVs while PVs grew by 6% YoY in 1QFY17.Passenger
car segment grew by 15% on the back of incremental volumes of newly
launched Tiago. MHCV volumes grew by 8% YoY while LCV sales continued their
momentum with a 12% YoY growth.
Realization declined ~5% QoQ (+2% YoY) to INR814k/unit (v/s est. INR839k per
unit) due to adverse product mix.
Net sales at INR103.2b (v/s est. INR103.9b) up 11% YoY (-18% QoQ).
EBITDA at ~INR6.9b (v/s est ~INR7.6b) grew 22% YoY.
EBITDA margins (including joint operations) were at 6.7% (v/s est 7.4%), decline
of 140bp QoQ (+60bp YoY). Raw material cost decline of 80 bps and other
expense decline of 50 bps was more than offset by a 280 bps rise in staff
expenses.
EBITDA margins of the standalone business (excluding joint operations of Tata
Cummins and Fiat) came in at 5.7% (+100bp YoY) in 1QFY17.
Further, Adj PAT was at INR996m (v/s est~INR 3.35b) declined by 80% QoQ
primarily due to higher tax (v/s Tax credit in 4QFY16) and higher depreciation
exp (+16% QoQ).
Exceptional item of ~INR1.087b was exchange loss including revaluation of
foreign currency borrowings, deposits
S/A net debt reduce to ~INR166b (v/s ~INR137b in 4QFY16).
Company has taken a price hike of 1% in June-16 for its CVs (except for ACE
models and its variants)
1QFY17
41,191
32.5
50,654
39.9
91,845
72.4
31,283
24.7
3,711
2.9
126,839
1QFY16
37,604
32.1
46,914
40.0
84,518
72.1
27,016
23.1
5,626
4.8
117,160
YoY (%)
9.5
8.0
8.7
15.8
-34.0
8.3
4QFY16
54,011
36.8
61,309
41.8
115,319
78.6
26,496
18.1
4,950
3.4
146,766
QoQ (%)
-23.7
-17.4
-20.4
18.1
-25.0
-13.6
Standalone: Revenues in line; Higher staff cost pulls down EBITDA margins
Exhibit 8: Trend in segment mix
Segment
M&HCVs
Contribution (%)
LCVs
Contribution (%)
Total CVs
Contribution (%)
Cars
Contribution (%)
UVs
Contribution (%)
Total Volumes
Source: Company, MOSL
27 August 2016
4

Tata Motors
Exhibit 9: Weaker CV mix impacts QoQ realizations
Avg. Realization
Growth YoY %
7.3
18.1
17.9 20.3
15.2
7.1
(1.6)
(5.7)
4.9
(8.9)
(9.6)
14.3
5.9
2.2
1.7
(6.2)
FY13
FY14
(5.1)
Exhibit 10: EBITDA declines due to higher staff costs
EBITDA (INR m)
3.6
EBITDA Margin (%)
8.1
2.3 2.0
(4.3)
(2.8)(1.6)
6.1
6.8
5.7
6.7
14.2 29.4
13.9
19.3
10.6
2.8
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY15
FY16
FY17
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Valuation and view
Ex-China demand remains strong, JLR to gain share across geographies:
FY16
was year of transition for JLR as it would have 3 unprecedented events viz a)
own engine plant for the 1st time, b) China manufacturing plant and c) entry
into high volumes with Jaguar XE. Jaguar portfolio has potential to go up 3x in
volumes led by XE and Crossover F-Pace. China JV has started in 4QFY15,
starting with 3 models (XF, Evoque Discovery Sport). These 3 models currently
contribute 45-50% of China volumes, and as per management it has potential to
go up 2.5x over 2-3 years on local production. Volume momentum is expected
to improve driven by Discovery Sport, Jaguar XE and Evoque (in China JV).
China growth normalizing, as transitory issues receding:
We expect volume
recovery to continue as it emerges from transitory issues, driven by a)
stabilization of Chery JV, b) New XF from 3QFY17, and d) recovery in the market.
Despite China's volume growth moderation, it is still expected to outgrow other
markets with 8-10% CAGR over CY14-20. JLR is expected to outperform in China,
driven by strong product pipeline, dominance in the fast growing SUV segment
and dealer network expansion.
JLR’s profitability has many levers:
JLR has several levers, both cyclical and
structural, in form of a) favorable Fx, b) operating leverage driven by recovery in
volumes as transitory issues recede, c) ramp-up in Chery JV, d) full roll-out of
modular strategy, and e) incremental production from low-cost countries.
CV cycle bottomed out, New launches in PV segment to help revival:
CV
business has bottomed out. We expect the momentum in MHCV volumes to
continue in FY17, while LCV volumes have showed signs of recovery; we expect
recovery to strengthen in 2HFY17. We estimate ~23% CAGR in CV volumes over
FY16-18E. PV business, after witnessing no major launch since Nano launch in
2009, is gearing up for 2 launches every year till 2020. While its Zest and Bolt
failed to impress, we believe new launches in the UV space arrest the decline in
the PV business. We estimate ~26% PV volume CAGR over FY16-18E (~17%
CAGR de-growth over FY12-15).
Raise EPS by 7/2%:
We raise our FY17 EPS estimate by ~8% to factor in for
continued improvement in Chery JV performance and lower depreciation in JLR.
However, sharp cut in S/A EPS due to cut in volumes, impact of mix and higher
depreciation and interest has resulted in FY18 EPS by ~5%.
27 August 2016
5

Tata Motors
Valuation & view:
The stock trades at 12.7x/9.4x FY17E/FY18E consolidated EPS.
We maintain
Buy
on stock with TP of INR562 (FY18 SOTP based). We value JLR at
4x EV/EBITDA and Indian business at 8x EV/EBITDA.
Exhibit 11: TATA MOTORS: Sum-of-the-parts valuation
INR B
SOTP Value
Tata Motors - Standalone
JLR (Adj for R&D capitalization)
JLR - Chery JV EBITDA Share
HV Axles
HV Transmission
Tata Technologies
Tata Daewoo
Total EV
Less: Net Debt (Ex FCCB & TMFL)
Add: Other Investments
Tata Motors Finance
Other Associates/JVs
Tata Sons
Total Equity Value
Fair Value (INR/Sh) - Ord Sh
Upside (%)
Fair Value (INR/Sh) - DVR
Upside (%)
Valuation Parameter Multiple (x)
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA
9.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
FY17E
335
986
117
4
3
21
14
1,481
218
37
20
78
1,398
412
-18.3
335
986
FY18E
501
1,173
172
8
6
24
16
1,901
152
41
41
78
1,909
562
11.6
501
1,173
Source: MOSL
P/BV
P/BV
40% discount
Fully Diluted
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA
1
0.75
9.0
4.0
Exhibit 12: Revised Estimates
Key Assumptions
Consolidated
Net Sales
EBITDA
EBITDA Margins (%)
Net Profit
Cons EPS
JLR (IFRS, GBP M)
Volumes ('000 units) incl JV
EBITDA
EBITDA Margins (%)
Net Profit
Standalone
Volumes ('000 units)
EBITDA
EBITDA Margins (%)
Net Profit
Normal. EPS
Rev
2,879
410
14.2
135
39.6
614
3,640
14.5
1,723
586
37
7.4
3.1
6.2
FY17E
Old
2,915
427
14.6
125
36.7
616
3,760
15.2
1,545
602
42
7.4
9.4
3.3
Chg (%)
-1.2
-3.9
-40bp
8.0
8.0
-0.3
-3.2
-70bp
11.5
-2.7
-12.2
0bp
-66.7
85.6
Rev
3,242
488
15.0
183
53.8
682
4,259
15.3
2,047
735
56
9.0
18.4
16.2
FY18E
Old
3,281
503
15.3
193
56.8
678
4,372
16.0
2,084
748
60
8.7
24.7
19.1
Chg (%)
-1.2
-3.0
-30bp
-5.3
-5.3
0.6
-2.6
-70bp
-1.7
-1.7
-7.7
40bp
-25.6
-15.3
Source: Company, MOSL
27 August 2016
6

Tata Motors
Exhibit 13: Valuations trading at historical average, reflecting improving fundamentals
32
P/E (x)
5 Yrs Avg(x)
15 Yrs Avg(x)
10 Yrs Avg(x)
6.0
4.5
3.0
10.9
1.5
0.0
P/B (x)
5 Yrs Avg(x)
15 Yrs Avg(x)
10 Yrs Avg(x)
24
Negative
Earnings
Cycle
11.4
9.4
9.1
16
2.5
2.4
1.8
1.7
8
0
Source: MOSL
Source: MOSL
Comparative valuation
Auto OEM's
Bajaj Auto
Hero MotoCorp
TVS Motor
M&M
Maruti Suzuki
Tata Motors
Ashok Leyland
Eicher Motors
Auto Ancillaries
Bharat Forge
859
Exide Industries
175
Amara Raja Batteries
902
BOSCH
23,703
# Nos. are on CY basis
CMP
(INR)*
2,857
3,317
303
1,424
4,921
504
88
22,327
Rating
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
TP
(INR)
2,944
3,666
323
1,724
5,506
558
118
27,244
921
205
1,038
26,512
P/E (x)
FY17E
FY18E
20.0
16.3
18.1
15.5
24.7
18.9
19.4
14.4
22.4
17.9
12.7
9.4
13.5
10.4
36.0
26.6
31.3
19.5
27.0
45.1
23.3
16.9
21.7
31.3
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY17E
FY18E
13.9
11.4
11.8
9.9
15.0
11.6
16.0
12.8
13.0
10.8
4.6
3.7
7.5
5.9
28.8
23.5
15.7
12.4
15.8
34.9
12.8
10.7
13.0
23.6
RoE (%)
FY17E
FY18E
31.2
33.0
41.5
39.9
27.1
28.7
15.4
17.8
20.3
21.5
15.4
17.8
29.8
31.0
40.9
40.1
16.9
15.3
24.4
18.5
20.0
15.5
24.7
22.8
RoCE (%)
FY17E
FY18E
30.4
32.2
40.5
39.1
28.0
30.2
12.9
15.1
27.6
28.9
11.2
13.0
21.9
25.2
26.1
27.9
11.6
15.8
23.1
26.3
14.5
16.2
23.6
31.3
27 August 2016
7

Tata Motors
Tata Motors|
Story in Charts: Structural JLR story meet cyclical recovery in S/A
Expect JLR (incl JV) volume CAGR of ~12% led by strong
growth in FY17 on introduction of Jaguar XE and F-Pace
JLR volumes (incl JV; '000 units)
29.1
14.7
18.3
15.5
9.5
15.6
12.9
14.8
Exhibit 14: Margins to remain stable as volume ramps-up
EBITDA (GBP m)
17.5
18.9
14.9
14.5
15.3
EBITDA margin (%)
11.1
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 15: JLR’s to remain FCF positive despite high
capex plans
CFO
Capex
FCF
Exhibit 16: S/A business to recover on economic recovery
Revenues (INR b)
11.6
Growth (%)
16.7
5.9
18.5
22.9
958
-180
686
986
182
720
1,104
-17.0
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY12
FY13
-22.9
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 17: S/A margins to improve on volume recovery
EBITDA (INR b)
7.0
4.2
37
19
-1.4
-2.2
(5)
FY12
FY13
FY14
(8)
FY15
EBITDA Margins (%)
6.5
7.4
9.0
Exhibit 18: EPS CAGR of 25% over FY16-18E
EPS (INR)
41.3
28.9
7.5
Growth (%)
35.7
27
37
56
-16.8
37.5
31.2 44.1
FY13
FY14
-1.1
43.6
FY15
-15.5
36.9
FY16E
39.6
FY17E
53.8
FY18E
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
FY12
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
27 August 2016
8

Tata Motors
Key operating metrics
Exhibit 19: Snapshot of Revenue model
000 units
JLR
Jaguar
Growth (%)
% of Total JLR Vols
Land Rover
Growth (%)
% of Total JLR Vols
Total Volumes
Growth (%)
ASP (GBP '000/unit)
Growth (%)
Net JLR Sales (GBP b)
Growth (%)
DOMESTIC
MH&CVs
Growth (%)
LCVs
Growth (%)
Total CVs
Growth (%)
Total PVs
Growth (%)
Total Volumes
Growth (%)
ASP (INR 000/unit)
Net S/A Sales (INR b)
Growth (%)
FY11
53
11.8
21.8
191
30.1
78.2
244
25.6
41
20.4
10
51.2
214
27.5
295
26.2
509
26.7
328
23.0
837
25.2
574
480
35.0
FY12
54
2.0
17.2
260
36.6
82.8
314
29.1
43
6.1
14
36.9
221
3.4
364
23.3
585
14.9
338
3.1
923
10.3
581
536
11.6
FY13
58
7.0
15.5
314
20.7
84.5
372
18.3
42
-1.3
16
16.8
153
-31.1
429
17.8
581
-0.7
229
-32.2
810
-12.2
549
445
-17.0
FY14
79
37.2
18.4
351
11.6
81.6
430
15.5
45
6.3
19
22.8
122
-19.7
299
-30.3
421
-27.5
145
-36.5
567
-30.1
605
343
-22.9
FY15
76
-3.5
16.3
394
12.4
83.7
471
9.5
46
3.0
22
12.8
143
16.5
222
-25.8
365
-13.5
138
-5.3
502
-11.4
723
363
5.9
FY16E
102
33.5
20.0
442
12.2
86.8
509
8.2
44
-6.2
22
1.6
176
23.6
205
-7.7
381
4.6
131
-5.1
512
1.9
828
424
16.7
FY17E
151
47.7
27.2
463
4.8
83.4
555
9.0
45
4.0
25
13.4
FY18E
165
9.7
27.8
517
11.6
87.0
594
7.0
47
3.0
28
10.2
199
230
12.7
15.6
226
274
10.6
20.8
425
503
11.5
18.4
160
232
22.9
44.7
586
735
14.4
25.6
857
839
502
617
18.5
22.9
Source: Company, MOSL
27 August 2016
9

Tata Motors
Financials and Valuations
Income Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Total Income
Change (%)
Expenditure
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
Depreciation
EBIT
Product Dev. Exp.
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Tax
Effective Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Change (%)
% of Net Sales
Minority Interest
Share of profit of associate
Net Profit
Adj. PAT
Change (%)
2012
1,656,545
35.6
1,419,540
237,005
14.3
56,254
180,751
13,892
29,822
6,618
135,339
-400
-0.3
135,739
47.2
8.2
-823
249
135,165
119,008
28.3
2013
1,888,176
14.0
1,622,487
265,689
14.1
75,693
189,996
20,216
35,533
8,115
136,335
37,710
27.7
98,625
-27.3
5.2
-837
1,138
98,926
99,560
-16.3
2014
2,328,337
23.3
1,954,308
374,029
16.1
110,782
263,248
25,652
47,338
8,286
188,690
47,648
25.3
141,042
43.0
6.1
-595
-537
139,910
141,986
42.6
2015
2,631,590
13.0
2,210,452
421,138
16.0
133,886
287,252
28,752
48,615
8,987
217,026
76,429
35.2
140,597
-0.3
5.3
-868
134
139,863
140,465
-1.1
2016
2,755,611
4.7
2,353,245
402,367
14.6
170,142
232,225
34,804
46,234
9,817
139,809
28,726
20.5
111,083
-21.0
4.0
-1,059
213
110,238
125,170
-10.9
2017E
2,879,167
4.5
2,468,969
410,198
14.2
188,347
221,851
38,183
35,731
7,332
158,060
41,330
26.1
116,730
5.1
4.1
-992
17,556
133,294
134,525
7.5
(INR Million)
2018E
3,242,397
12.6
2,754,784
487,614
15.0
218,101
269,513
41,491
33,400
8,566
203,187
46,579
22.9
156,608
34.2
4.8
-1,126
27,087
182,569
182,569
35.7
Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Deferred Tax
Capital Employed
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Goodwill
Investments
Curr.Assets
Inventory
Sundry Debtors
Cash & Bank Bal.
Loans & Advances
Current Liab. & Prov.
Sundry Creditors
Other Liabilities
Net Current Assets
Appl. of Funds
E: MOSL Estimates
2012
6,348
320,638
326,985
471,490
-23,743
777,803
897,791
495,125
402,667
159,458
40,937
89,177
711,679
182,160
82,368
182,381
249,952
626,116
366,863
130,835
85,564
777,803
2013
6,381
369,992
376,373
557,223
-24,094
913,206
1,205,654
570,818
634,836
60,000
41,024
90,577
829,538
209,690
109,427
211,127
280,739
742,769
447,801
134,250
86,769
913,206
2014
6,438
649,597
656,035
549,545
-7,748
1,202,038
1,329,282
688,154
641,128
332,626
49,788
106,867
1,046,103
272,709
105,742
297,118
273,241
974,474
573,157
199,707
71,629
1,202,038
2015
6,438
556,181
562,619
692,115
-13,900
1,245,167
1,582,066
744,241
837,825
286,401
46,970
153,367
1,034,685
292,723
125,792
321,158
256,948
1,114,081
574,073
328,305
-79,396
1,245,167
2016
6,792
801,035
807,827
630,999
4,397
1,452,105
1,891,371
875,469
1,015,902
272,604
48,365
204,661
1,124,179
333,990
129,900
328,800
286,983
1,213,607
636,329
372,083
-89,428
1,452,105
2017E
6,792
932,248
939,040
617,916
4,397
1,571,227
2,392,226
1,063,816
1,328,410
70,000
48,365
222,217
1,030,237
323,413
141,986
226,847
291,983
1,128,002
654,715
252,420
-97,766
1,571,227
(INR Million)
2018E
6,792
1,103,792
1,110,584
599,832
4,397
1,725,813
2,720,226
1,281,917
1,438,309
70,000
48,365
249,304
1,145,728
373,098
159,899
268,241
296,983
1,225,893
710,662
266,498
-80,165
1,725,813
27 August 2016
10

Tata Motors
Financials and Valuations
Ratios (Consolidated)
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
EPS Fully Diluted
Normalized EPS ^
EPS Growth (%)
Cash EPS
Book Value (Rs/Share)
DPS
Payout (Incl. Div. Tax) %
Valuation (x)
Consolidated P/E
Normalized P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price to Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Creditors (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
2012
37.5
37.5
21.2
28.9
55.2
103.0
4.0
12.4
2013
31.2
31.2
11.4
-16.8
54.9
118.0
2.0
7.4
2014
44.1
44.1
17.8
41.3
78.5
203.8
2.0
5.3
2015
43.6
43.6
14.1
-1.1
85.2
174.8
0.0
0.0
11.5
35.8
4.4
0.7
2.9
0.0
45.9
29.1
60.2
18
40
81
2.1
1.4
28.3
17.0
30.6
21
41
87
2.1
1.5
27.5
19.2
38.7
17
43
90
1.9
0.8
23.1
15.7
39.2
17
41
80
2.1
1.2
2016
36.9
36.9
5.6
-15.5
87.0
237.9
0.2
0.7
13.7
89.4
4.5
0.7
2.1
0.0
18.3
14.3
32.6
17
44
84
1.9
0.8
2017E
39.6
39.6
6.2
7.5
95.1
276.5
3.0
9.1
12.7
81.1
4.6
0.7
1.8
0.6
15.4
11.2
19.3
18
41
83
1.8
0.7
2018E
53.8
53.8
16.2
35.7
118.0
327.0
4.0
9.0
9.4
31.2
3.7
0.6
1.5
0.8
17.8
13.0
19.0
18
42
80
1.9
0.5
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March
OP/(Loss) before Tax
Int/Div. Received
Depreciation
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
Other Items
CF from Op Activity
Extra-ordinary Items
CF after EO Items
(Inc)/Dec in FA+CWIP
(Pur)/Sale of Invest.
CF from Inv Activity
Issue of Shares
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividends Paid
CF from Fin Activity
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
Add: Beginning Bal.
Closing Balance
E: MOSL Estimates
2012
135,165
5,376
56,209
-17,679
-22,801
24,401
180,670
8,549
189,219
-137,829
-72,976
-210,804
1,386
113,054
-33,737
-15,031
65,672
44,087
104,244
148,330
2013
98,926
8,062
75,648
-22,231
-680
64,617
224,343
4,342
228,684
-187,203
-54,984
-242,188
7
45,082
-46,560
-15,087
-16,558
-30,061
153,550
123,488
2014
139,910
6,933
110,736
-43,083
57,744
88,983
361,223
7,221
368,444
-269,252
-36,611
-305,863
1
30,092
-61,706
-7,220
-38,832
23,749
142,531
166,280
2015
139,863
7,777
133,864
-41,940
-36,718
136,570
339,415
20,191
359,606
-315,396
-37,570
-352,966
0
122,288
-63,070
-7,204
52,014
58,655
152,629
211,283
2016
110,238
9,817
131,228
-10,430
17,674
3,154
261,681
-18,794
242,888
-295,509
-51,294
-346,803
135,788
-61,115
-46,234
-818
27,621
-76,294
211,283
134,990
2017E
138,145
7,332
188,347
-41,330
-93,614
992
199,873
4,851
204,724
-298,250
-17,556
-315,806
5,344
-13,084
-35,731
-12,276
-55,747
-166,830
134,990
-31,840
(INR Million)
2018E
182,569
8,566
218,101
-46,579
23,793
1,126
387,575
0
387,575
-328,000
-27,087
-355,087
5,344
-18,084
-33,400
-16,368
-62,508
-30,020
-31,840
-61,860
27 August 2016
11

Tata Motors
Corporate profile
Company description
Tata Motors is the largest CV manufacturer in India
with 55% market share in MHCV and 37% in LCVs. It
also manufactures passenger cars and UVs. In FY09,
it acquired Jaguar & Land Rover from Ford for
USD2.5b.
Exhibit 1: Sensex rebased
Source: MOSL/Bloomberg
Exhibit 2: Shareholding pattern (%)
Jun-16
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
33.0
16.8
25.0
25.2
Mar-16
33.0
19.2
22.1
25.7
Jun-15
34.4
16.5
41.9
7.3
Source: Capitaline
Exhibit 3: Top holders
Holder Name
Life Insurance Corporation Of India
Government Of Singapore
ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd
Abu Dhabi Investment Authority
% Holding
7.1
1.9
1.7
1.4
Source: Capitaline
Note: FII Includes depository receipts
Exhibit 4: Top management
Name
Cyrus P Mistry
Ratan N Tata
Guenter Butschek
Satish B Borwankar
H K Sethna
Designation
Chairman
Chairman Emeritus
Managing Director & CEO
Executive Director
Company Secretary
Exhibit 5: Directors
Name
Falguni Nayar*
Nusli N Wadia*
Ralf Speth
Vinesh K Jairath*
Name
Nasser Munjee*
R A Mashelkar*
Subodh Bhargava*
Ravindra Pisharody
Source: Capitaline
*Independent
Exhibit 6: Auditors
Name
Deloitte Haskins & Sells LLP
Mani & Co
Type
Statutory
Cost Auditor
Exhibit 7: MOSL forecast v/s consensus
EPS
(INR)
MOSL
forecast
39.6
53.8
Consensus
forecast
46.8
55.2
Variation
(%)
-15.4
-2.5
Source: Bloomberg
FY17
FY18
Source: Capitaline
27 August 2016
12

TATA MOTORS GALLERY
TATA MOTORS
COMPANIES
SECTOR UPDATES

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27 August 2016
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