27 August 2016
Annual Report Update
| Sector:
Utilities
BSE SENSEX
28,060
S&P CNX
8,650
NTPC
Buy
CMP: INR158
TP: INR199 (+26%)
NTPC FY16 annual report analysis
Core PAT up 18%
Key takeaways from NTPC’s FY16 annual report
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg. Val, INR m
Free float (%)
NTPC IN
158.0
170/112
1/10/24
13449.0
20.1
666
30.0
Core generation adj. PAT increased 18% YoY to INR81b, driven by
capitalization of INR154b on addition of 2GW to DC.
Losses at JVs declined from ~INR3b in FY15 to ~INR0.8b in FY16 on
reduction of losses at Ratnagiri and improved performance of Aravali.
Fuel cost declined 10% YoY to INR1.95/kwh. Gas & naphtha contributed
45% of decline in cost.
Contingent liabilities toward fuel cost increased sharply by 2.5x YoY to
INR21b. Contingent liability toward grade slippage was mentioned for the
first time.
We expect consolidated EPS to grow at 12% CAGR over FY16-20. Buy.
Generation adj. PAT up 18% YoY
NTPC’s standalone (NTPCsa) FY16 PAT of INR102b came in flat YoY. Adjusted PAT
was up 6% YoY to INR92b (Exhibit 1). NTPCsa generation adjusted PAT grew
INR13b YoY (+18%) to INR81b in FY16, as per our calculations (Exhibit 2).
Base RoE up 12%:
Base RoE grew ~INR5b YoY (+12% YoY) to ~INR61b as
regulated equity base increased by INR45b YoY to INR414b. Addition to gross
block was INR154b on commissioning of 1,960MW capacity. Overall gross
block, however, increased by INR183b to INR1,468b on foreign exchange and
other adjustments. Base RoE contributed ~74% of generation PAT.
PLF incentive:
PLF incentive increased by INR0.5b YoY (+36%) to INR2.1b
(pre-tax INR2.7b). Six plants had PLF of more than 85% in FY16, as against
five plants in FY15. Performance at Singrauli improved particularly – PLF of
~93% in FY16 from ~83% in FY15. PLF incentive contributed ~3% of
generation PAT.
Working capital interest:
Actual debt (~INR931b) was lower than normative
debt (~INR941b), implying working capital and part of project capital were
funded by equity. Regulator allows normative interest return on such
equity. Based on our calculation of normative working capital, NTPC earned
~INR11b (v/s ~INR12b in FY15) on pre-tax basis from working capital interest.
It provided pre-tax rebate/discounts of ~INR5b for early payments and
charged ~INR2b for late payments. Resultantly, net post-tax incentive from
working capital was at ~INR6b (unchanged YoY). Return on excess equity in
projects was insignificant (v/s. INR1.6b in FY15). The two components
contributed ~8% of generation PAT.
Heat rate and oil efficiency:
Based on our estimates of station heat rate and
oil consumption, NTPC earned ~INR1.9b from efficient operation of plant.
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
2016 2017E 2018E
Y/E Mar
Sales
787.1 820.4 965.0
EBITDA
191.6 228.2 301.9
NP
101.6
96.5 119.0
EPS (INR)
12.3
11.7
14.4
EPS Gr. (%)
1.7
-5.1
23.3
BV/Sh. (INR )
108.2 115.1 124.1
RoE (%)
11.9
10.5
12.1
RoCE (%)
7.3
6.8
8.2
P/E (x)
10.5
14.0
11.3
P/BV (x)
1.2
1.4
1.3
Shareholding pattern (%)
Jun-16 Mar-16 Jun-15
Promoter
70.0
70.0
75.0
DII
16.9
17.0
12.7
FII
11.0
10.8
10.0
Others
2.2
2.3
2.3
FII Includes depository receipts
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1523
Dhruv Muchhal
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1549
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.