6 September 2016
1QFY17 Results Update | Sector: Oil & Gas
MRPL
Buy
BSE SENSEX
28,978
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val, (INR m)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,943
MRPL IN
1,752.6
146.9 / 2.2
93/49
2/26/46
72
11.4
CMP: INR84
TP: INR98 (+17%)
Above est. led by inventory gains; core GRM tracking benchmark
MRPL posted EBITDA of INR15.8b (+54% YoY), higher than our estimate of INR11b.
Reported GRM of USD10/bbl was higher than our estimate of USD7.1/bbl, boosted
by inventory gain of USD4.7/bbl. PAT grew 77% YoY (but declined 47% QoQ) to
INR7.2b (v/s our estimate of INR6.4b).
EBITDA above estimate:
EBITDA grew 54% YoY (and 2.4% QoQ) to INR15.8b,
led by reported GRM of USD10/bbl (v/s USD6.6/bbl in 1QFY16) and lower opex
at USD1.3/bbl (v/s our estimate of INR1.5/bbl).
Forex loss, higher tax rate lowers PAT:
Differential at PAT level was lower
despite higher income at INR2.3b (v/s our estimate of INR925m) due to forex
loss at INR3.6b and higher tax rate at 37%.
Operating GRM at USD10/bbl in 1QFY17:
Reported GRM grew 51% YoY to
USD10/bbl (v/s our estimate of USD7.1/bbl), boosted by inventory gain of
USD4.7/bbl. Core GRM was USD5.3/bbl (v/s regional benchmark Reuters
Singapore GRM of USD5/bbl).
Crude throughput declined 6% YoY (and 19% QoQ) to 3.66mmt, impacted by
shutdowns on account of water unavailability during the summer.
Valuation and view:
MRPL being a standalone refiner is highly sensitive to GRM.
For every USD1/bbl change in GRM, FY17/FY18E EPS changes ~25%. We expect Iran
crude payments to be made in the next few months. The stock trades at 6.1x FY18E
EPS, and at an EV of 4.5x FY18E EBITDA. We roll over our target price to FY18 and
value the stock at an EV of 5.5x FY18E EBITDA to arrive at a fair value of
INR98/share, implying 17% upside.
Buy.
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
Sales
396.3 452.3 516.3
EBITDA
29.6
38.3
48.6
Adj. PAT
12.9
23.5
24.0
Adj. EPS (INR)
7.4
13.4
13.7
EPS Gr. (%)
-174.5
81.8
2.2
BV/Sh.(INR)
36.6
46.9
57.4
RoE (%)
19.6
32.1
26.3
RoCE (%)
23.1
19.9
15.5
P/E (x)
11.4
6.2
6.1
P/BV (x)
2.3
1.8
1.5
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Harshad Borawake
(HarshadBorawake@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1529
Abhinil Dahiwale
(Abhinil.Dahiwale@motilaloswal.com); +91 22 3980 4309
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

MRPL
Exhibit 1: MRPL -- Key Operating and Financial Performance
(INR million)
Key Parameters
Exchange rate (INR/USD)
Brent Crude (USD/bbl)
Throughput (mmt)
GRM (USD/bbl)
Singapore GRM (USD/bbl)
Premium / (disc.)
(USD/bbl)
Key Financials
Net Sales
Less: Expenses
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)
Depreciation
Other Income
Interest
PBT b/f exceptional
Forex gain/(loss)
Exceptionals
PBT
Income tax
Reported PAT
PAT Margin (%)
EPS (INR)
59.8
109.7
3.2
0.7
5.8
(5.1)
60.5
102.0
3.5
(4.0)
4.8
(8.8)
61.5
77.0
3.9
(6.7)
6.3
(13.0)
60.0
54.9
4.1
7.0
8.6
(1.6)
63.5
62.1
3.9
6.6
8.0
(1.4)
65.0
50.0
3.5
0.3
6.3
(5.9)
66.0
45.0
3.8
4.8
8.0
(3.2)
67.1
34.1
4.5
8.2
7.7
0.5
67.0
45.0
3.7
10.0
5.0
5.0
6%
-28%
-6%
51%
-38%
-463%
-26%
-33%
54%
15%
8%
0%
32%
-19%
21%
-35%
828%
-9%
-12%
2%
-30%
-6%
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
YoY(%)
QoQ(%)
157,414
158,651
-1,237
-0.79%
946
2,232
531
-481
-260
0
-741
380
-361
-0.2%
(0.21)
159,113
168,116
-9,003
-5.66%
1,123
1,901
1,123
-9,348
-4,825
0
-13,838
4,323
-9,515
-6.0%
(5.43)
147,119
161,756
-14,637
-9.95%
1,429
1,835
1,279
-15,510
-3,434
0
-18,944
0
-18,944
-12.9%
(10.81)
110,928
100,154
10,774
9.71%
1,489
2,136
1,138
10,283
1,680
0
11,963
-266
11,697
10.5%
6.67
113,131
102,848
10,283
9.09%
1,486
2,157
1,218
9,736
-3,103
0
5,092
-1,032
4,060
3.6%
2.32
102,176
104,327
-2,151
-2.11%
1,593
2,437
1,588
-2,896
-7,026
0
-10,127
1,032
-9,095
-8.9%
(5.19)
88,166
82,091
6,075
6.89%
1,596
1,657
1,515
4,621
-1,631
0
2,984
0
2,984
3.4%
1.70
92,848
77,410
15,438
16.63%
2,449
2,475
1,458
14,007
-143
0
13,787
-254
13,534
14.6%
7.72
84,259
68,445
15,814
18.77%
1,707
2,325
1,431
15,001
-3,631
0
11,370
-4,167
7,203
8.5%
4.11
123%
77%
-18%
-47%
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 2: MRPL’s reported GRM stood at USD10/bbl vs Singapore GRM at USD5/bbl
Prem/(Disc) to Singapore
9.1
6.7
9.2
0.1
-4.2
-10.9
1QFY13
3QFY13
1QFY14
3QFY14
1QFY15
9.1
6.3
1.9 2.0
-4.4
-7.1
6.6
2.9
-3.7
5.4
5.0
-0.4
4.3
-0.6
-4.9
6.2
3.2
0.7
-3.0
-5.1
-4.0
-8.8
-6.7
-13.0
3QFY15
1QFY16
3QFY16
1QFY17
-1.6
-1.4
5.8
4.8
MRPL GRM (USD/bbl)
8.6
7.0
Singapore GRM (USD/bbl)
8.0
6.6
0.3
-5.9
-3.2
8.2
7.7
4.8
0.5
10.0
5.0
5.0
6.3
6.3
8.0
Source: Company, MOSL
6 September 2016
2

MRPL
Exhibit 3: MRPL 1QFY17 throughput at 3.7mmt implying 98% capacity utilization
116%
126%
98%
3.7
Throughput (mmt)
100% 102%
3.8
3.8
80%
3.2
87%
3.5
Utilization (%)
121%
87%
3.3
97%
3.9
103% 104%
4.1
3.9
92%
3.5
102%
4.5
3.8
98%
3.7
109%
88%
3.6
2.9
3.8
4.1
1QFY13
3QFY13
1QFY14
3QFY14
1QFY15
3QFY15
1QFY16
3QFY16
1QFY17
Source: Company, MOSL
Valuation and View
Key risks include slowdown in the global petroleum demand as it would impact
GRM. MRPL being a standalone refiner is highly sensitive to GRM. For variation
of USD1/bbl in GRM, FY17/FY18E EPS changes ~25%.
We expect Iran crude payments (USD2.5b) to reduce cash balance and increase
debt.
The stock trades at 6.2x FY17E and 6.1x FY18E EPS, and at an EV of 5.1x FY17E
and 4.5x FY18E EBITDA. We rollover over target price at FY18 and value at FY18
EV/EBITDA of 5.5x to arrive at a fair value of INR98/share, implying 17% upside.
Buy.
6 September 2016
3

MRPL
Story in charts
Exhibit 4: MRPL has recently completed its nameplate
capacity expansion from 9.5mmt to 15.5mmmt along with
complexity increase
Capacity (MMTPA)
5.7
3.7
4.8
Exhibit 5: …Higher complexity has started contributing to
higher GRMs and is likely to continue
GRM (USD/bbl)
7.0
6.3
5.3 5.8
3.9
2.5 2.6
6.8
5.2
6.8
-0.6
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 6: EBITDA to increase led by improving GRMs…
EBITDA (INRb)
28
15
20 23
8
30
10
45 48
Exhibit 7: …PAT shall be realized as the margins improve
PAT (INRb)
8.8
12.7 11.9
11.1 11.8 9.1
3.7 5.3
11.5
22.3
6.0
24.1
19
12
16
20
-7.6
-14
-17.1
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
Exhibit 8: RoE and RoCE are expected to recover from the
decade lows… (%)
50
25
0
-25
-50
ROE
ROCE
Exhibit 9: 1-Year forward P/E Chart
60
40
20
0
PE (x)
Median(x)
Peak(x)
Min(x)
51.1
Negative
Earnings
Cycle
Avg(x)
10.9
9.6
4.4
5.6
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
6 September 2016
4

MRPL
Financials and Valuations
Income Statement
Y/E March
Net Sales
Change (%)
Raw Mat Cons
Op & other Exp
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT before forex chg
Forex gain/(loss)
EO Items (net)
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
PAT
Adj. PAT
Change (%)
2012
537,703
38.0
510,865
4,221
22,616
4.2
4,339
2,067
3,474
19,684
-6,482
0
13,202
4,116
31.2
9,086
9,086
-22.9
2013
656,962
22.2
642,840
5,731
8,391
1.3
6,044
3,286
1,113
174
-5,365
445
-4,746
2,823
-59.5
-7,569
-7,883
-186.8
2014
718,105
9.3
701,784
6,288
10,032
1.4
7,064
3,214
3,245
2,998
-19
1,118
4,097
-1,915
-46.7
6,012
5,252
-166.6
2015
574,574
-20.0
578,476
10,200
-14,103
-2.5
4,986
4,071
8,105
-15,055
-6,838
335
-21,559
-4,437
20.6
-17,122
-17,356
-430.5
2016
396,320
-31.0
352,348
14,328
29,645
7.5
7,124
5,778
8,726
25,469
-11,903
-1,830
11,736
254
2.2
11,483
12,928
-174.5
2017E
452,255
14.1
401,441
12,497
38,318
8.5
7,471
7,562
5,136
28,421
-3,631
24,790
10,076
40.6
14,715
23,510
81.8
(INR Million)
2018E
516,315
14.2
455,179
12,495
48,642
9.4
7,657
8,552
1,896
34,329
0
34,329
10,299
30.0
24,030
24,030
2.2
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Total Loans
Deferred Tax
Cap Employed
Gr Fixed Assets
Less: Depr
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Curr. Assets, L & Adv.
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Equi.
Loans & Adv & Other
Current Liab. & Prov.
Liabilities
Provisions
Net Curr Assets
App of Funds
E: MOSL Estimates
2012
17,573
54,719
72,292
57,517
4,531
134,340
90,243
49,644
40,598
70,892
423
78,176
34,593
22,347
14,532
2013
17,527
47,150
64,677
69,798
7,343
141,818
113,385
55,578
57,806
75,545
150
67,153
39,727
16,059
10,573
2014
17,527
53,162
70,689
88,536
4,703
163,927
122,510
62,596
59,914
85,515
150
84,490
44,811
106,723
13,573
2015
17,527
35,523
53,050
78,760
0
131,810
209,416
68,323
141,092
13,775
13,502
33,996
23,588
102,687
14,722
2016
17,527
46,678
64,204
68,230
806
133,241
224,920
75,708
149,212
1,831
13,497
31,967
23,690
137,127
16,225
2017E
17,527
64,651
82,178
99,233
806
182,217
230,543
83,179
147,364
1,831
13,497
49,562
27,259
5,388
17,515
(INR Million)
2018E
17,527
83,145
100,672
99,633
4,239
204,544
236,307
90,836
145,471
1,831
13,497
56,582
31,120
28,744
19,490
123,886
3,334
22,427
134,340
123,739
1,455
8,317
141,818
229,568
1,681
18,347
163,927
209,109
2,444
-36,559
131,810
236,365
3,944
-31,299
133,241
77,698
2,500
19,526
182,217
89,691
2,500
43,746
204,544
6 September 2016
5

MRPL
Financials and Valuations
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout (incl. Div. Tax.)
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV / EBITDA
EV / Sales
Price / Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (No. of Days)
Fixed Asset Turnover (x)
Leverage Ratio
Net Debt / Equity (x)
2012
5.2
7.6
41.1
1.0
22.4
2013
-4.5
-0.9
36.9
0.0
0.0
2014
3.0
7.5
40.3
0.0
0.0
2015
-9.9
-6.9
30.3
0.0
0.0
-8.5
-12.1
-8.7
0.2
2.8
0.0
13.2
14.0
35.6
20
6.0
0.8
-11.1
4.0
5.7
21
5.8
1.1
8.9
6.0
12.2
21
5.9
1.3
-27.7
-5.9
55.1
22
2.7
1.5
2016
7.4
10.6
36.6
0.0
0.0
11.4
6.0
2.6
0.2
2.3
0.0
19.6
23.1
-283.9
22
1.8
1.1
2017E
13.4
17.7
46.9
2.7
23.5
6.2
4.7
5.1
0.5
1.8
3.2
32.1
19.9
45.1
22
2.0
1.2
2018E
13.7
18.1
57.4
2.7
23.0
6.1
4.6
4.5
0.4
1.5
3.2
26.3
15.5
11.9
22
2.2
1.0
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
OP/(Loss) before Tax
Depreciation
Interest /Other Income
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in Wkg. Capital
Other op activities
CF from Op. Activity
(Inc)/Dec in FA & CWIP
Free Cash Flow
(Pur)/Sale of Investments
Other In activities
CF from Inv. Activity
Change in Equity
Inc / (Dec) in Debt
Dividends Paid
CF from Fin. Activity
Inc / ( Dec) in Cash
Add: Opening Balance
Total
Balance in current a/c
Closing Balance
E: MOSL Estimates
2012
13,202
4,394
-1,174
-4,356
-18,610
-47
-6,591
-32,649
-39,240
13
2,993
-29,643
-46
44,196
-2,444
41,705
5,472
16,699
22,171
176
22,347
2013
-4,768
6,044
2,380
-1,147
7,052
338
9,898
-24,430
-14,532
32
1,228
-23,170
-46
9,065
-2,037
6,982
-6,290
22,347
16,057
2
16,059
2014
4,097
7,060
129
-1,276
84,017
-4,391
89,634
-15,018
74,616
7
2,010
-13,001
0
14,031
0
14,031
90,664
16,059
106,723
0
106,723
2015
-21,559
5,005
-3,834
-900
10,439
5,089
-5,758
-8,922
-14,681
13
-5,170
-14,079
0
-15,031
0
-15,031
-34,868
106,723
71,855
30,832
102,687
2016
11,735
7,124
-2,362
-1,721
49,318
8,190
72,284
-3,924
68,360
3
7,513
3,592
0
-17,507
0
-17,507
58,369
102,687
161,056
-23,928
137,127
2017E
33,586
7,471
7,562
-10,076
-182,564
0
-144,021
-5,623
-149,644
0
0
-5,623
0
23,442
-5,536
17,905
-131,739
137,127
5,388
0
5,388
(INR Million)
2018E
34,329
7,657
8,552
-6,866
-865
0
42,808
-5,764
37,044
0
0
-5,764
0
-8,152
-5,536
-13,688
23,356
5,388
28,744
0
28,744
6 September 2016
6

MRPL
Corporate profile
Company description
Exhibit 1: Sensex rebased
MRPL (Bloomberg: MRPL) is an ONGC Group
company, with ONGC’s stake at 71.6%. It was set up
in 1988 with the initial crude processing capacity of
3.0MMTPA that was later expanded to 9.7MMTPA
and is now expanded to 15mmtpa.
Source: MOSL/Bloomberg
Exhibit 2: Shareholding pattern (%)
Jun-16
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
88.6
3.4
0.8
7.3
Mar-16
88.6
3.3
0.8
7.3
Jun-15
88.6
3.7
0.8
6.9
Source: Capitaline
Exhibit 3: Top holders
Holder Name
LIC of India
% Holding
1.3
Note: FII Includes depository receipts
Source: Capitaline
Exhibit 4: Top management
Name
D K Sarraf
A K Sahoo
Dinesh Mishra
Designation
Chairman
Director (Finance)
Company Secretary
Exhibit 5: Directors
Name
D K Sarraf
B K Namdeo
Diwakar Nath Misra
H Kumar
Name
A K Sahoo
Perin Devi
M Venkatesh
Source: Capitaline
*Independent
Exhibit 6: Auditors
Name
Gopalaiyer & Subramanian
Raghavendra Rao & Co
Bandyopadhyaya Bhaumik & Co
Type
Statutory
Statutory
Cost Auditor
Exhibit 7: MOSL forecast v/s consensus
EPS
(INR)
MOSL
forecast
13.4
13.7
Consensus
forecast
11.4
13.0
Variation
(%)
17.2
5.6
Source: Bloomberg
FY17
FY18
Source: Capitaline
6 September 2016
7

Disclosures
MRPL
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