Bharat Electronics
BSE SENSEX
28,773
S&P CNX
8,867
23 September 2016
Update
| Sector:
Capital Goods
CMP: INR1,256
TP: INR1,450(+15%)
Order pipeline remains robust
Buy
Guides 10-12% sales growth, +/-100bp change in EBITDA margin in FY17
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val, INRm
Free float (%)
We recently attended the analyst meet of Bharat Electronics (BHE). Our key
takeaways:
BHE IN
240
1,417/1,009
0/-9/3
302.9
4.6
411.7
24.98
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
2016 2017E 2018E
Y/E Mar
73.0
82.3
93.2
Net Sales
14.6
15.1
16.9
EBITDA (INR b)
13.7
14.8
16.6
Net Profit
56.9
61.7
69.0
EPS
17.1
8.4
11.9
EPS Gr. (%)
364.2 404.7 449.8
BV/Sh. (INR)
P/E (x)
22.1
20.4
18.2
P/BV (x)
3.4
3.1
2.8
RoE (%)
15.6
15.2
15.3
RoCE (%)
16.5
16.0
16.1
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Jun-16 Mar-16 Jun-15
Promoter
75.0
75.0
75.0
DII
15.0
14.7
15.5
FII
3.9
4.0
3.9
Others
6.1
6.3
5.6
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Bharat Electron
Sensex - Rebased
1,400
1,250
1,100
950
Orders in FY17 at INR120b-150b; large missile system orders likely to slip to FY18:
Post strong order inflow of INR170b in FY16, the management has guided orders
worth INR120b-150b in FY17 (our estimate: INR135b; five-year average: INR79b).
Key orders wins expected in FY17 include: (a) hand-held thermal imagers, (b)
electronic warfare systems for the Indian Army, and (c) network-centric systems for
the P15 Bravo ships. The Akash weapon systems order worth INR50b-60b along
with the LR SAM (Barrak 8) is likely to slip to FY18. Annual order inflows over the
next 2-3 years are expected to remain in the range of INR100b-150b, as there is a
strong pipeline of nomination-based orders.
Guidance of 10-12% sales growth in FY17; 8-10% growth likely over the medium
term:
The management has guided sales growth of 10-12% in FY17, with a higher
likelihood of growth being at the higher end of the range (our estimate: 13%). We
highlight that in the AR16, the management had guided 12-15% sales growth. For
the medium term (3-5 years), BHE has guided sales growth at 8-10%, which is
conservative in our view. Despite 48% growth in order book in FY16 to INR320b
and strong orders in FY17, execution would remain in the low teens due to (a) long
execution cycle of the order book, and (b) non-readiness of the customer to take
deliveries, which affects sales growth for BHE.
+/-100bp change in EBITDA margin (20% in FY16), 40-50% gross margin in FY17:
BHE has guided gross margin of 40-50% (our estimate: 43%) – gross margin would
depend on the mix of indigenous and imported content in the sales. In FY16, gross
margin was 48% – execution of the Akash missile system (21% of sales) would have
supported margins, in our view. The management has guided FY17 EBITDA margin
to be within a +/-100bp of the FY16 EBITDA margin of 20% (our estimate: 18%).
This takes into account the provision that needs to be made in 4QFY17 for the
coming employee pay revisions. Margins in indigenously developed products are
higher than where the technology is imported.
R&D spending to scale up to 12% of sales:
BHE is an R&D-focused company; its
R&D spending in FY16 was INR7b, 9.4% of sales. This is projected to rise to 12% of
sales in the coming few years. Its strong R&D base enables it to indigenize
imported technology while also to develop new IPR. In our view, BHE’s R&D
capability is a key competitive advantage.
Maintain Buy; play on faster decision making/accelerated indigenization in
defense:
We expect BHE to report EPS of INR62 in FY17 and INR69 in FY18.
Maintain Buy; our target price is INR1,450 (21x FY18E EPS). Key triggers are
accelerated decision making toward large defense procurements and increased
indigenization.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Ankur Sharma
(Ankur.VSharma@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1556
Amit Shah
(Amit.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 6129 1543