28 September 2016
Update
| Sector:
Textiles
SRF Ltd
Buy
BSE SENSEX
28,293
S&P CNX
8,745
CMP: INR1,799
TP: INR2,061 (+15%)
Pharma gaining momentum; Maintaining Buy
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
Avg Val ( INR m)
Free float (%)
SRF IN
57.4
1,824/1,022
6/26/50
103.3
1.6
215
47.6
Pharma to pick up pace in 2HFY17; Pressure continues to loom over
agrichem
We expect SRF’s pharmaceuticals business to boost growth of specialty chemicals
in 2HFY17, driven by the commencement of commercial production of new
molecules at its multi-purpose plant. The company also has 10-20 molecules under
R&D and is optimistic about commercializing them in future. On the other hand,
slowdown in its agrichem business (accounting for almost 75% of revenues)
globally continues to impact the specialty chemicals business. Thus, we expect
growth in specialty chemicals to be lower than its historical run-rate, but maintain
our positive stance on the fluorine-based specialty chemical business in the long
run.
Financials Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2016 2017E 2018E
Net Sales
EBITDA
PAT
EPS (INR)
Gr. (%)
BV/Sh (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
46.0
9.6
4.2
73.7
39.7
456.8
17.0
19.4
24.4
3.9
48.7
11.3
5.3
92.6
25.8
533.5
18.4
21.5
19.4
3.4
56.7
13.2
6.6
114.5
23.6
628.6
19.4
23.9
15.7
2.9
Exports driving refrigerant gas business
Normally 2Q is a seasonally weak quarter for the refrigerant gas business (R22 &
HFC134a) as air conditioner sales are impacted due to monsoon during that time of
the year. However, we expect SRF to buck this trend in 2QFY17, mainly driven by
exports. The company is likely to focus on manufacturing blends from its newly
commissioned HFC32 plant in Bhiwadi. We expect HFC134a and HFC32 volume
growth of 35% YoY in FY17.
Shareholding pattern (%)
As On
Promoter
DII
FII
Others
Jun-16 Mar-16 Jun-15
52.4
12.1
15.8
19.8
52.4
12.0
16.2
19.4
52.4
12.6
15.5
19.6
Packaging business stable; technical textile likely to show improvement
SRF’s packaging business remains stable as all geographies, including South Africa,
Thailand and India, are performing well. We understand the spreads in BOPET and
BOPP continues to remain healthy. As its plants are functioning at near-peak
utilization levels, we do not expect volume growth in FY17. Technical textile
business is likely to show marginal improvement in profitability due to better
demand for bias tyres.
FII Includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
SRF Ltd
Sensex - Rebased
1,900
1,650
1,400
1,150
900
Valuation and view
We continue remaining positive on SRF given its continued focus on the specialty
chemicals business and the mix change in its favor. We believe its investments
plans of INR35b over the next 4-5 years (mainly toward the chemicals business)
bode well for the company. We raise our earnings estimates by 3% and 6% for FY17
and FY18, respectively, to factor in growth in the pharmaceuticals business. We
value the company on an SOTP basis and arrive at a TP of INR2,061 (15% upside),
implying blended P/E of 18x on FY18 EPS. We maintain our
Buy
rating.
Chintan Modi
(Chintan.Modi@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5422
Niket Shah
(Niket.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5426/
Chitvan Oza
(Chitvan.Oza @MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3010 2415
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

SRF Ltd
Story in charts
Exhibit 1: Share of chemicals in revenues increasing
Technical Textiles
16
30
16
27
22
24
Chemicals
Packaging Films
Exhibit 2: Contribution
chemicals on uptrend
Specialty chemicals
HFC-134a
Chloromethanes
18
21
32
9
20
FY12
of
specialty
chemicals
within
27
28
45
FY15
28
34
38
FY16
26
38
35
FY17E
27
41
32
FY18E
Dymel
Other commodity chemcials
Engineering plastics
35
14
24
7
20
FY13
44
11
20
7
18
FY14
45
1
12
19
8
15
FY15
45
3
18
17
6
11
FY16
44
3
21
16
6
10
FY17E
45
3
22
14
7
10
FY18E
53
56
54
FY12
FY13
FY14
Source: MOSL, Company
Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 3: PAT to post CAGR of 16% over FY16-18
PAT
9.5
6.7
4.0
3,788
FY12
2,530
FY13
1,625
FY14
3,028
FY15
4,229
FY16
5,366
FY17E
6,576
FY18E
6.7
Margin %
11.0
9.2
11.6
Exhibit 4: Debt to equity to reduce to 0.5x
Debt
1.1
0.9
0.7
0.9
Debt to equity
0.8
0.6
0.5
12,284 17,040 21,753 20,244 21,012 19,512 18,512
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
Source: MOSL, Company
Source: MOSL, Company
Exhibit 5: RoCE to improve to 24%
31
RoE %
RoCE %
24
Exhibit 6: Strong free cash flow generation
FCF
4,167
2,745
2,246
17
21
13
8
FY12
FY13
FY14
9
16
14
19
17
22
18
1,021
579
19
-2,517
-4,430
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
Source: MOSL, Company
Source: MOSL, Company
28 September 2016
2

SRF Ltd
Exhibit 7: Key assumptions (INR m)
FY12
Revenues (INR m)
Technical Textile
Chemicals
Packaging
Revenue growth %
Technical Textile
Chemicals
Packaging
PBIT (INR m)
Technical Textile
Chemicals
Packaging
PBIT margins (%)
Technical Textile
Chemicals
Packaging
40,010
21,375
12,034
6,601
15.0
14.8
61.2
-24.2
7,339
1,145
5,941
252
18.3
5.4
49.4
3.8
FY13
37,829
21,283
10,348
6,199
-5.5
-0.4
-14.0
-6.1
4,760
1,234
3,465
60
12.6
5.8
33.5
1.0
FY14
40,181
21,802
9,561
8,817
6.2
2.4
-7.6
42.2
3,494
1,631
1,913
-50
8.7
7.5
20.0
-0.6
FY15
45,398
20,319
12,634
12,445
13.0
-6.8
32.1
41.1
5,576
1,957
2,983
636
12.3
9.6
23.6
5.1
FY16
46,001
17,429
15,524
13,048
1.3
-14.2
22.9
4.8
7,545
1,728
3,888
1,930
16.4
9.9
25.0
14.8
FY17E
48,713
17,187
18,676
12,849
5.9
-1.4
20.3
-1.5
8,911
2,320
4,856
1,735
18.3
13.5
26.0
13.5
FY18E
56,708
17,990
23,450
15,269
16.4
4.7
25.6
18.8
10,489
2,519
6,214
1,756
18.5
14.0
26.5
11.5
Source: Company, MOSL
Valuation and view
We believe global agrochemicals and pharmaceuticals players will continue
preferring SRF to meet their fluorine-based molecule requirements, given the
company’s strong R&D capabilities and ability to provide support across the
value chain—from access to critical starting materials, in-house process research
and development, lab synthesis and pilot production to setting up dedicated
plants for commercial production.
We expect revenue CAGR FY16-18E of 23% for the high-margin chemicals
business, leading to an increase in its revenue contribution from 34% in FY16 to
41% in FY18.
SRF continues to exhibit superior performance across segments, except specialty
chemicals which is going through a transitory phase. Due to its focus on value-
added films, PB has exhibited strong margins at 15.4% in 1QFY17, while most
players in the industry have witnessed a sharp decline in margins. TTB continues
to remain steady, posting strong margin improvement of 14.5% in 1QFY17.
We continue remaining positive on SRF due to its focus on the specialty
chemical business and the mix change in its favor. We believe its investments
plans of INR35b over the next 4-5 years (mainly toward chemicals business)
bode well for the company.
We raise our earnings estimates by 3% and 6% for FY17 and FY18, respectively,
to factor in growth in the pharmaceuticals business. We value the company on
an SOTP basis and arrive at a TP of INR2,061 (15% upside), implying blended P/E
of 18x on FY18 EPS. We maintain our
Buy
rating.
28 September 2016
3

SRF Ltd
Exhibit 8: SOTP valuation
Business Segment
Chemicals
Technical Textile
Packaging
Total
EPS FY18E
P/E Multiple FY18E
Value (INR)
70.8
27.0
16.7
114.5
24x
8x
8x
18x
1,700
224
137
2,061
Source: MOSL
Exhibit 9: Price to earnings (one-year forward)
20
P/E (x)
5 Yrs Avg(x)
15 Yrs Avg(x)
10 Yrs Avg(x)
Exhibit 10: Price to book (one-year forward)
4.6
17.4
P/B (x)
5 Yrs Avg(x)
15 Yrs Avg(x)
10 Yrs Avg(x)
14
9.3
7
6.4
0
6.9
3.1
3.0
1.4
1.1
1.1
1.6
0.1
Source: Company, MOSL
Source: Company, MOSL
28 September 2016
4

SRF Ltd
Financials and Valuations
Consolidated - Income Statement
Y/E March
Total Income from Operations
Change (%)
EBITDA
Margin (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Int. and Finance Charges
Other Income
PBT bef. EO Exp.
EO Items
PBT after EO Exp.
Current Tax
Deferred Tax
Tax Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
Margin (%)
FY11
34,735
39.0
9,009
25.9
1,701
7,308
897
459
6,869
0
6,869
1,868
159
29.5
4,842
4,842
49.3
13.9
FY11
615
16,365
16,980
2,161
9,731
28,872
37,882
17,554
20,328
30
1,131
1,162
12,835
5,041
4,918
903
1,973
6,766
5,628
926
213
6,068
154
28,872
FY12
40,010
15.2
8,314
20.8
1,837
6,478
1,172
312
5,617
0
5,617
1,687
142
32.6
3,788
3,788
-21.8
9.5
FY12
584
17,931
18,515
2,269
12,284
33,069
41,463
20,713
20,750
30
4,175
1,405
13,321
4,877
4,837
1,401
2,206
6,753
5,319
1,181
253
6,568
142
33,068
FY13
37,830
-5.4
6,143
16.2
2,089
4,054
998
420
3,476
0
3,476
564
383
27.2
2,530
2,530
-33.2
6.7
FY13
584
19,105
19,689
2,648
17,040
39,377
47,566
24,197
23,369
30
5,654
1,512
15,181
5,632
5,087
1,910
2,552
6,513
5,408
832
273
8,668
145
39,377
FY14
40,181
6.2
5,053
12.6
2,248
2,806
961
235
2,080
0
2,080
208
247
21.9
1,625
1,625
-35.8
4.0
FY14
584
20,082
20,667
3,250
21,753
45,670
61,072
25,657
35,415
93
1,121
366
17,693
7,464
6,915
825
2,489
9,516
8,265
908
343
8,177
498
45,670
FY15
45,398
13.0
7,175
15.8
2,450
4,724
1,376
646
3,994
0
3,994
314
652
24.2
3,028
3,028
86.4
6.7
FY15
584
22,379
22,963
4,094
20,244
47,301
66,773
27,585
39,188
35
1,041
943
17,624
7,635
6,107
1,073
2,810
12,238
6,350
5,606
283
5,386
708
47,301
FY16
46,001
1.3
9,610
20.9
2,892
6,718
1,283
273
5,708
0
5,708
1,478
0
25.9
4,229
4,229
39.7
9.2
FY16
584
26,110
26,695
4,777
21,012
52,483
72,754
30,476
42,278
35
0
1,619
20,765
7,050
5,145
3,892
4,678
12,993
7,542
5,173
278
7,772
779
52,483
(INR Million)
FY17E
48,713
5.9
11,253
23.1
3,140
8,113
1,135
259
7,238
63
7,301
1,935
0
26.5
5,366
5,320
25.8
10.9
FY17E
FY18E
56,708
16.4
13,213
23.3
3,409
9,804
1,065
207
8,947
0
8,947
2,371
0
26.5
6,576
6,576
23.6
11.6
FY18E
Consolidated - Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Equity Share Capital
Total Reserves
Net Worth
Deferred Liabilities
Total Loans
Capital Employed
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Deprn.
Net Fixed Assets
Goodwill on Consolidation
Capital WIP
Total Investments
Curr. Assets, Loans&Adv.
Inventory
Account Receivables
Cash and Bank Balance
Loans and Advances
Curr. Liability & Prov.
Account Payables
Other Current Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Deferred Tax assets
Appl. of Funds
E: MOSL Estimates
(INR Million)
584
36,154
36,738
4,777
18,512
60,027
85,754
37,025
48,729
35
0
1,619
23,849
8,683
6,935
2,287
5,944
14,984
8,306
5,173
1,506
8,865
779
60,027
584
30,595
31,179
4,777
19,512
55,468
78,754
33,616
45,138
35
0
1,619
21,522
7,489
5,957
3,122
4,954
13,626
7,164
5,173
1,289
7,896
779
55,468
28 September 2016
5

SRF Ltd
Financials and Valuations
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout (%)
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
P/BV
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield (%)
FCF per share
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Working Capital Ratios
Asset Turnover (x)
Inventory (Days)
Debtor (Days)
Creditor (Days)
Working Cap. Turnover (Days)
Leverage Ratio (x)
Debt/Equity
FY11
78.7
106.4
276.0
14.5
20.4
FY12
64.8
96.3
316.8
13.9
24.9
FY13
44.1
79.0
336.9
10.0
26.4
FY14
28.3
66.3
353.6
10.0
41.3
FY15
52.7
93.7
392.9
10.0
22.5
33.7
18.9
4.5
2.7
16.9
0.6
9.9
32.6
40.4
41.4
1.2
101
48
112
54
0.6
21.3
31.3
34.8
1.2
77
41
84
47
0.7
13.2
16.9
20.2
1.0
95
46
92
65
0.9
8.1
9.4
10.1
0.9
114
58
126
67
1.1
13.9
15.6
15.2
1.0
110
46
91
35
0.9
FY16
73.7
121.8
456.8
10.0
15.7
24.1
14.6
3.9
2.6
12.4
0.6
71.3
17.0
19.4
19.3
0.9
110
38
118
31
0.8
FY17E
92.6
144.8
533.5
13.2
16.4
19.4
12.4
3.4
2.4
10.5
0.7
47.0
18.4
21.5
21.7
0.9
115
42
110
36
0.6
FY18E
114.5
170.9
628.6
15.3
15.5
15.7
10.5
2.9
2.1
8.9
0.9
38.4
19.4
23.9
23.7
0.9
115
42
110
42
0.5
Consolidated - Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
OP/(Loss) before Tax
Depreciation
Interest & Finance Charges
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
Others
CF from Operating incl EO
(inc)/dec in FA
Free Cash Flow
(Pur)/Sale of Investments
Others
CF from Investments
Issue of Shares
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
Others
CF from Fin. Activity
Inc/Dec of Cash
Opening Balance
Closing Balance
E: MOSL Estimates
FY11
6,870
1,701
870
-1,943
-1,301
6,197
-104
6,093
-2,178
3,915
-1,097
76
-3,199
0
-530
-903
-1,465
3
-2,895
-1
904
902
FY12
5,617
2,404
1,150
-1,658
-64
7,450
-802
6,648
-5,627
1,021
-243
256
-5,614
-900
2,336
-1,028
-940
-4
-536
498
902
1,401
FY13
3,476
2,089
972
-632
-1,445
4,459
-232
4,227
-6,744
-2,517
-63
92
-6,716
0
4,547
-889
-660
0
2,998
509
1,401
1,910
FY14
2,080
2,248
908
-413
-1,199
3,623
-156
3,467
-7,897
-4,430
1,156
144
-6,597
0
3,911
-1,198
-668
0
2,045
-1,085
1,910
825
FY15
3,994
2,450
1,346
-850
-1,011
5,931
-507
5,423
-4,845
579
-632
482
-4,994
0
1,889
-1,392
-678
0
-181
248
825
1,073
FY16
5,708
2,892
1,283
-1,478
703
9,107
0
9,107
-4,940
4,167
0
-676
-5,616
0
768
-1,283
-664
507
-672
2,819
1,073
3,892
(INR Million)
FY17E
7,238
3,140
1,135
-1,935
-895
8,682
63
8,745
-6,000
2,745
0
0
-6,000
0
-1,500
-1,135
-881
0
-3,516
-772
3,892
3,120
FY18E
8,947
3,409
1,065
-2,371
-1,803
9,246
0
9,246
-7,000
2,246
0
0
-7,000
0
-1,000
-1,065
-1,017
0
-3,082
-961
3,120
2,159
28 September 2016
6

SRF Ltd
NOTES
28 September 2016
7

Disclosures
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In respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research you could contact the following representatives of Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited:
Varun Kumar
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Kadambari Balachandran
kadambari.balachandran@motilaloswal.com
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28 September 2016
Motilal Oswal Tower, Level 9, Sayani Road, Prabhadevi, Mumbai 400 025
Phone: +91 22 3982 5500 E-mail: reports@motilaloswal.com
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd
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